Today Trends

Author: Makoi Popioco, International Center for Journalists The chaos of the eleventh-hour substitution filing for the 2022 Philippines elections confirmed the disaccord in the Duterte dynasty . But these disagreements may not be permanent as their broader impact on the elections remains to be seen. From what was initially shaping up as a potential father-daughter face-off for the vice presidency, outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte decided to file his candidacy for the senate. His daughter, outgoing Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, stood by her decision to settle for a bid for number two in next year’s presidential elections. The deadline for substituting candidates who decide to withdraw from the race and have another candidate from the same political group replace them was 15 November. A dizzying and soap opera-worthy web of withdrawals, substitutions and expedient turncoatism marked the week before the substitution deadline. Apart from divulging weaknesses in the Philipp...

Author: Ambika Satkunanathan, Open Society Foundations On 12 March 2021, new ‘ Deradicalisation from Holding Violent Extremist Religious Ideology ‘ regulations were issued under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) in Sri Lanka. The PTA is a draconian law that does not adhere to human rights standards and for decades has enabled gross violations against Sri Lankan citizens through arbitrary arrest, detention, torture and the denial of fair trial. The state — which has predominantly used the law against Tamils — began using the law against Muslims after the 2019 Easter terror attacks. The deradicalisation regulations allow law enforcement to send people who surrendered or were detained under the PTA, or emergency regulations issued after the Easter attacks, to ‘rehabilitation’. The regulations create a new predictive style of offence based on a broad legal definition that enables the arrest and detention of citizens contrary to the procedure set out by Sri Lankan law and interna...

Authors: Anna Powles, Massey University and Jose Sousa-Santos, Australia Pacific Security College On 25 November, a day after the riots in Honiara, Australia announced it would deploy police and military personnel following a request for assistance from the government of the Solomon Islands. This is fast shaping up to be a regional response to the unrest in the Solomon Islands. Papua New Guinea also responded to a request from the Solomon Islands deploying a contingent of police and correctional officers. Australia has since announced an additional deployment of Australian Federal Police and Fiji has announced 50 defence personnel will be embedded with the Australian contingent. There are also indications that New Zealand will provide additional support. An uneasy peace has replaced three days of looting and burning, but there are serious concerns about a return to violence. The political process has yet to deliver answers to Solomon Islanders who feel disenfranchised and margi...

Author: Dolma Tsering, National Cheng Kung University Taiwan and the exile Tibetan community share a unique relationship amalgamated by the nexus of China, historical baggage, the relationship between the United States, China and India, and the growing influence of Tibetan Buddhism. The recent high-level meeting between the new Sikyong (political leader) of the Tibetan exile government and Taiwan’s India representative for the first time in a decade is an embodiment of the complex nexus of the relationship . After moving to Taiwan, the Kuomintang (KMT) re-established the Mongol and Tibetan Affairs Commission and the constitutional provision to assert sovereignty over Tibet. The exile government criticised KMT activities , especially its collaboration with Tibetan anti-Chinese guerrilla group Chu-Shi Gang Druk and the establishment of another Tibetan cabinet office in 1969. These activities not only challenged the sovereignty of the exile government but were accused of creating ch...

Author: Editorial Board, ANU When the AUKUS agreement was announced on 16 September it not only surprised the French and President Macron — Indonesia’s parliamentarians were stunned and not a single one offered any support for it. If it was a major unforced error on the part of the Australian government not to have given advanced warning to Paris of its intention to scrap a deal to buy French submarines, it was even more incomprehensible that Canberra failed to prepare its partners in the region for the announcement of a major new defence arrangement. Among the Southeast Asian capitals, Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur have raised concerns most directly. Not only does AUKUS threaten to entrench a new Cold War mindset in the region, they suggest, there is also a danger that Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines may herald the beginning of an arms race in the region. Critics of AUKUS in the region could be forgiven for detecting a whiff of anachronism about the pact’s member...

Author: Dino Patti Djalal, Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia When news of the AUKUS agreement broke on 16 September2021, it caught everyone in Southeast Asia by surprise. While its understood that AUKUS is not an alliance, it had portent to agitate the strategic landscape for ASEAN. In Indonesia, not a single member of Parliament endorsed it. The government issued a five-point response which avoided mention of AUKUS itself but stated that Indonesia ‘was deeply concerned over the continuing arms race and power projection in the region’. Jakarta was clearly wary of the development. Malaysia shares similar concerns Indonesia’s about whether the arrangement would precipitate a regional arms race. Malaysia’s also worried that, although Australia is not set to acquire any nuclear weapons under the agreement, the transfer of nuclear technology to power Australian submarines might be the thin edge of the nuclear weapons wedge. This worry was echoed by Indonesia’s Director General for A...

Author: Evan Laksmana, NUS The outlines of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy are emerging. Public comments from administration figures indicate that the US is seeking to build more bespoke or ad hoc regional coalitions – such as the Quad and AUKUS – to balance China’s military power and buttress the ‘rules-based order’. At the heart of the US–China contest in the Indo-Pacific region is a competition for influence in Southeast Asia. But beating the drum of the ‘rules-based order’ or sounding the alarm on Chinese military and economic coercion has less resonance among south-east Asian post-colonial elites than Washington thinks. Regional countries don’t want to subscribe to some exclusive vision of regional order, regardless of whether it is from Washington or Beijing. Some Southeast Asian countries view ‘rules-based order’ talk as a necessary diplomatic veneer for defending shared principles but most see it as hollow chatter. And some privately assess it as just a sni...

Author: Abdul Rahman Yaacob, ANU November 2021 marks the 50th Anniversary of the Five Power Defence Arrangement (FPDA), a consultative defence mechanism involving Australia, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Malaysia and Singapore. Its future is likely to be challenged given the dynamics of Australia’s defence relations with Indonesia and the formation of AUKUS, a military pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The FPDA was formed in 1971 partly due to the British withdrawal from Southeast Asia and potential security threats from Indonesia. As relations between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore warmed during the 1970s and 1980s, the FPDA evolved to maintain relevancy. During the last decade of the Cold War, Malaysia and Singapore had to deal with emerging security threats from the Soviet Union. When the Soviets had access to Vietnam’s military facilities in Danang and Cam Ranh Bay, they maintained a more robust military presence in the Indian Ocean and the...

Author: Peter Lloyd, University of Melbourne The already tense relations between China and Taiwan are worsening. In October 2021, China flew a record number of military aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence zone, increasing the risk of armed conflict. In the event of an armed conflict, Australia could become a direct target of Chinese military action because of its security ties to the United States through ANZUS and AUKUS.  Former Australian prime minister Paul Keating stated in early November that ‘Taiwan is not a vital Australian interest’ and that ‘[Australia] should not be drawn, in my view, into a military engagement over Taiwan — US-sponsored or otherwise’. Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne has stated that Australia would like a peaceful solution. Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton declared ‘it would be inconceivable that we wouldn’t support the United States in action’. But Australia should be gravely concerned by the risk of involvement in a war with C...

Author: Richard Katz, Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs In running for the presidency of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Fumio Kishida declared that there can be ‘no growth without redistribution’ and ‘no redistribution without growth’. But no sooner was he selected president of the LDP and sworn in as prime minister than he backpedalled on prior promises of economic reform , even withdrawing a proposal to ensure that multimillionaires paid a tax rate as high as those on lower incomes. Kishida was closer to the truth in his first statement. Improving income equality will not alone solve Japan’s growth shortfall, but if done right it could help. The OECD notes that Japan’s deepening inequality during 1990–2010 made a bad situation worse. Had inequality not intensified, per capita GDP would have grown about 25 per cent faster at 0.9 per cent per year instead of the experienced 0.73 per cent. This would have left GDP per capita in 2010 about US$1200 higher...