Today Trends

Author: Shin-wha Lee, Korea University The international community has faced an unprecedented social and economic shock due to three ‘big bangs’ — increasing US–China strategic competition, the fourth industrial revolution and the COVID-19 crisis. These three big bangs are interrelated and pose important challenges and consequences for world trade, regional stability and the future of the liberal international order. First, the US–China trade conflict and strategic competition that began in earnest in 2018 stemmed both from a sense of crisis within the United States about China’s unfair trade and industrial espionage and from the rapid economic growth, advanced technological development, and strengthening military power achieved through them. Faced with an increasingly vulnerable global supply chain stemming from COVID-19, countries rushed to reorganise their supply chains to strengthen security. As the link between technology and security became more important, the US enacted a ‘

Author: Collin Koh, NTU The ongoing COVID-19 crisis stalled the intended conclusion of the proposed South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) by 2021. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr remarked that the negotiations between ASEAN and China ‘went nowhere’. ASEAN countries and China have a tough job cut out for them in overcoming serious differences around the COC — not least of which involve the geographical scope of any deal and the role of non-signatories. China’s coercion and lawfare in the South China Sea also became normalised in 2021. In March, revelations of Chinese boat swarms, ostensibly maritime militia , in the Whitsun Reef could have surprised many — not least because the Philippines has sought closer ties with Beijing while drawing away from Washington since President Rodrigo Duterte came to power. The revelations came not long after China introduced its new Coast Guard Law , a measure that allows the use of force against perceived transgressors of Be

Author: Lev Nachman, Harvard University Taiwan is living in an unprecedented time. At the end of 2020, it was still one of the few places in the world not ravaged by COVID-19. President Tsai Ing-wen’s government enjoyed broad support, but people were nervous about the transition of power in the United States from former US president Donald Trump to Joe Biden and how the transition could impact Taiwan.  In 2021, Taiwan was finally hit with COVID-19 but it recovered back to normalcy shortly thereafter. Tsai’s public support took a hit along with the COVID-19 spike, but her support remains strong overall. The United States transitioned to President Biden and the US–Taiwan relationship has never been stronger.  At present, Taiwan is arguably in the strongest position it has been for decades. But it is much more than just enjoying ‘ rock solid ’ support from the United States. More countries see Taiwan as a legitimate world player. In the last number of months , the Czech Republic,

Author: Dushni Weerakoon, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka Sri Lanka ends 2021 with foreign currency reserves in hand (US$1.6 billion) to support a month of imports. For much of the year, a shortage of dollars saw uncleared essential imports piling up at the Colombo port as domestic prices soared . Directions from the country’s central bank to maintain an artificially fixed rate have seen a parallel black market emerge, as businesses have struggled to find hard currency. Added to this, mandated conversion of foreign currency earnings into Sri Lankan rupees is instilling fear that the country is heading swiftly towards both a currency and economic crisis. The last time that reserves fell to such a perilous state was in February 2009 amid the global financial crisis, as Sri Lanka battled the final stages of a separatist war. Then too, there was a stubborn disinclination to approach the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and instead lobby friendly governments for help. With

Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University The 2018–2021 period can be seen as an important turning point in Korean history. In the space of a few years, the US–China confrontation has changed everything in Northeast Asia — and this change is likely to last for a long time. The ‘new Cold War’, as this confrontation is sometimes known, has not altered China’s strategic goals in Northeast Asia. But China is now willing to invest much more to achieve them. What are these goals? First, China needs a stable Korean peninsula. China does not want to deal with a Syria-style mess nearby — especially one involving large stockpiles of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. Second, China wants Korea to remain divided. Currently, Korean unification is synonymous with the absorption of the destitute North by the rich South. For China, this would amount to a democratic and fiercely nationalistic state emerging on its border. This new state would most likely be an ally of the Unit

Author: Jina Kim, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies In South Korea, presidential election fever is heating up. Key candidates from the conservative People Power Party and the liberal Democratic Party of Korea are presenting their blueprints for the future of South Korea’s security and defence. Lee Jae-myung, the ruling Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, vows to swiftly realise the transition to operational control (OPCON) agreed to by South Korea and the United States, thereby consolidating the alliance relationship. At the meeting with US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink on 11 November, Lee stressed developing the alliance into a global partnership. Yoon Seok-youl, the conservative People Power Party’s presidential candidate, prefers to strengthen a strategic alliance with the United States and calls for South Korea’s active participation in efforts to build a global coalition. Although the two camps diverge on the i

Author: Amitav Acharya, American University Southeast Asia is no stranger to strategic competition. But its ‘new geopolitics’ is different from those that existed during the Cold War. In fighting communism, the United States extended its security umbrella to the region. This gave ASEAN members breathing space and allowed them to focus on economic growth and domestic stability. It also stimulated unity among Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines due to fear of being entangled in great power intervention. Aid and investment from Japan, a US ally and Asia’s then fastest rising economy, helped industrialise several Southeast Asian countries. Now, China has displaced Japan as Asia’s largest economy and ASEAN’s largest trade partner. China’s GDP today is more than five times that of ASEAN’s combined. It spends five times more on defence. Unlike the Soviet Union, China is Southeast Asia’s immediate neighbour — a dragon breathing down its neck. ASEAN’s capacity to

Author: David I Steinberg, Georgetown University For the fourth time since Myanmar’s independence in 1948, the Tatmadaw (military) has reasserted its control. On 1 February 2021, on the cusp of inaugurating a new parliament from the 2020 national elections, the Tatmadaw claimed electoral corruption in the opposition National League for Democracy’s overwhelming victory over the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, among many others, were arrested and charged with diverse, manufactured crimes. The Tatmadaw established the military State Administration Council, promising a return to representative rule a year after its ‘caretaker government’ (later amended to two years). Military ‘resurgence’ implies a previous period of quiet, but the Tatmadaw has influenced and mostly ruled since independence. However unpopular, the Tatmadaw kept its iron grip over society for half a century through armed power, invented

Author: David Hundt, Deakin University For South Korea, responding to the COVID-19 pandemic has been an opportunity to burnish its ‘ national brand ’. It has experienced relatively few daily infections, cumulative deaths are not high by world standards and vaccination rates are above global averages. The ‘ tool-kit ’ of policy responses for managing the pandemic is theoretically the same for all countries, but the hallmark of South Korea’s approach has been the ability to make pragmatic choices amid imperfect conditions. The pandemic has witnessed the revival of some aspects of the ‘developmental state’ tradition in the public health sphere. An approach to governance that had been associated with economic development has gained new traction. At a time of great uncertainty, the public in South Korea and elsewhere have generally welcomed confident and purposeful intervention from the government. South Korean leaders have adopted a reactive approach that reflects the country’s small

Author: Joshy M Paul, CAPS India and Russia held their first ever 2+2 dialogue in New Delhi during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brief visit to India on 6 December. Both countries decided to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation and boost the Vladivostok–Chennai energy corridor , a gateway for Russia into the Indo-Pacific and an alternate source of energy for India, rather than relying on the volatile Middle East. India–Russia strategic relations are unique in many ways. The 1971 Indo–Soviet treaty was binding only for the former Soviet Union, which guaranteed Soviet military protection over India. Making full use of this treaty, India has been able to maintain its ‘strategic autonomy’ and avoid entrapment in alliance formations to contain threats from Pakistan and China. India has also received technical assistance from Moscow for some of its military programs, such as its nuclear submarine program, indigenous aircraft carrier program and licensed production of Russian-

Author: Editorial Board, ANU Heightened US–China tensions and strategic competition and China’s recent weaponisation of trade against countries like Canada and Australia have encouraged calls to drastically divert economic ties away from China. Some switching of trade is inevitable because lower trust and increased uncertainties increase the risk-adjusted costs of doing business. Breaking economic ties may isolate China but it will also make the world significantly poorer. An economic retreat from China would mean a retreat from Asia because of the complex interdependence of Asian trade, investment and financial flows. This would be flawed both as an economic and a security strategy, undercutting the region’s economic strength, as well as the security networks beyond US alliance relationships that are the foundation of East and Southeast Asian security. A retreat from the Chinese economy means a retreat from complex regional supply chains that would cause severe economic and politi