Today Trends

Author: Zhihui Zhang, Chinese Academy of Sciences The core module of the China Space Station (CSS) was launched into space in April 2021. In July and October 2021, two SpaceX Starlink satellites suddenly dropped from a low earth orbit of 500km and 555km, respectively, into the CSS’s path. The CSS made an emergency manoeuvre to avoid a collision. China condemned the United States at the United Nations, claiming the incident threatened the CSS and its astronauts. There are two popular explanations as to why the incident occurred. One is that it was an accident, as SpaceX actively deorbits its satellites at the end of their lives. A Starlink satellite nearly collided with a European Space Agency’s meteorological satellite in 2019 after testing its automatic deorbiting technology. The alternative explanation is that it was a deliberate act by the US military. Whatever the reason, Washington should not use the pretext of ‘corporate behaviour’ to shirk its responsibility for the actions ...

Author: Kavi Chongkittavorn, Chulalongkorn University   Much has changed since the first meeting between US and ASEAN officials in 1977. But after 45 years of engagement, ties between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the United States remain unstable. The war in Ukraine has provided a new impetus to reboot ASEAN –US relations in realistic ways. Their leaders met in Washington for the ASEAN – US Special Summit in May 2022, and a sense of jubilation and trepidation prevailed. The ever-changing US position towards Southeast Asia since the Vietnam War has been the subject of continued debate, especially regarding US consistency and reliability. One fact has emerged — the region needs the presence of the United States, especially in the realms of security and economics. ASEAN leaders welcomed President Joe Biden’s invitation when it was first issued in October 2021.   ASEAN – US relations have been guided by their longstanding mutual security and ec...

Author: Vera Yuen, HKU A month ahead of the 2022 Hong Kong Chief Executive election, former chief secretary John Lee declared he was running for office. The city was already expecting Lee to take power in the near future, with the public giving little attention to incumbent Carrie Lam. Lee was the only candidate in the election and won with over 99 per cent of the vote, which was cast by a largely pro-Beijing Election Committee. The election is part of a fundamental paradigm shift that has pulled Hong Kong’s institutions closer to their mainland counterparts. The 2020 National Security Law (NSL) has been used by the government, along with colonial-era ordinances, to crack down on political freedom . Many opposition parties, civil society organisations, unions and media outlets have been dissolved and their leaders imprisoned or forced into exile. As a result of the ‘Improving Electoral System (Consolidated Amendments) Bill 2021’, the Election Committee of the Chief Executive was...

Author: Yun Jiang, AIIA China is watching closely at how countries are reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in preparation for the day it might make its own military move on Taiwan. It is not only considering the military response, but also the economic response. Seeing the economic and financial pressure being applied to Russia, China will want to make its economy more resilient to similar sanctions. One key lesson for Beijing is the importance of integrating with the world while depending less on the West — and where this isn’t feasible, such as in the high-tech sector, to continue to build self-reliance . For China, the goal of economic self-reliance has always been central, albeit one that is in tension with its desire to benefit from economic integration with other countries. Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has been taking steps to protect its financial system, including through alternative payment systems. The sanctions on Moscow have only validated Beiji...

Author: Editorial Board, ANU As one old political hand remarked in the aftermath of Australia’s momentous federal election, the shifts underway in the country’s politics are similar to the effects of climate change: they happen very slowly, then all at once. Almost a decade of centre-right rule came to an end on 21 May when former prime minister Scott Morrison’s Liberal Party–National Party coalition was defeated by the centre-left Labor Party, which now holds office at the federal level for the first time since 2013 under the leadership of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Despite Labor only winning around a third of the first preference vote, Australia’s system of preferential or ‘instant-runoff’ voting means that the votes of lower-ranked candidates are redistributed, according to voters’ preferences, to the top ranked candidates until a majority is achieved. After distribution of preferences Labor won a decisive victory with a big swing in its favour across all constituencies e...

Author: Andrew Chubb, Lancaster University The change of government in Canberra opens the possibility of a thaw in Australia’s diplomatic relations with China. Since 2017, the Australian government has adopted an array of tough China policies on issues ranging from 5G communications to COVID-19. In response, Beijing imposed a diplomatic freeze and since May 2020, informal economic sanctions on Australian exports including barley, coal, beef and wine. Substantive Australian policy concessions to Beijing are off the table, but the incoming Labor government has the opportunity to lead Australia’s China policy debate away from its current divisiveness, while getting serious about the still-unaddressed impact of the Chinese government on political liberties within diaspora communities. The key to resolving this apparent contradiction is to adopt a rights-protection approach focused on strengthening Australia’s democratic rights protection institutions — in contrast to the previous gov...

Author: Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, University of Tokyo Japan is planning to revise its National Security Strategy (NSS) by the end of 2022, which would also reconfigure the National Defence Program Guidelines (NDPG) and Mid-Term Defence Program. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) submitted policy recommendations stressing the need for counterattack capabilities against both enemy military bases and command and control systems, marking a potential new turn in Japan’s defence strategies and readiness. For Japan, counterattacks will serve as the offensive face of its defence and deterrence strategy against enemy missiles, allowing Tokyo to hurt the enemy while also weakening its ability to carry out subsequent attacks. The Japan Self-Defence Forces (SDF) have a large-scale ballistic missile defence system that consists of the SM-3 interceptor and PAC-3 air defence missile. But there have been significant advancements in Chinese, North Korean and Russian missile technology, includi...

Author: Amitendu Palit, NUS The much-awaited Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) between Australia and India was signed on 2 April 2022. The ECTA is an interim trade deal that should pave the way for a wider and deeper comprehensive economic cooperation agreement between the two countries. It was enabled by India’s ‘China-exclusive’ trade agreement approach and avoiding key areas of political disagreement between the two countries. The ECTA was signed in record time. It took only six months from the commencement of negotiations in 2021 to conclude the deal. The signing marked formalisation of preferential trade rules between two countries with a long history of unfruitful negotiations. By eliminating tariffs on more than 85 per cent of Australian exports to India and more than 90 per cent of Indian exports to Australia, the ECTA expects to considerably enlarge the current bilateral trade of US$24.3 billion. India is expected to become Australia’s third largest expor...

Author: Melissa Mahoney, Johns Hopkins University Japan’s response to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was lacklustre. It took considerable US pressure to push Japan to act. Once Japan did, its sanctions were largely symbolic. In contrast, its response to the recent invasion of Ukraine has been decisive and resolute. As of 16 March 2022, Japan has revoked Russia’s status as a ‘most-favoured trading nation’, suspended visa issuance for certain individuals with relations to Russia, the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, frozen assets and excluded selected Russian banks from the SWIFT bank messaging system. Japan has also provided Ukraine with humanitarian aid. A shift in Japan’s stance on negotiations over the Kuril Islands (which Japan claims as the Northern Territories), concern over Russia’s challenge to the rules-based international order, and the renewed importance of the US–Japan alliance explain this change in Japan’s response. Japan’s stance towar...

Author: David Camroux, Sciences Po Within two months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has inadvertently achieved more for promoting European unity than the past two decades of efforts by EU leaders. The invasion has brought the fight between the ‘free world’ and authoritarianism to the fore, creating impetus for Europe’s Indo–Pacific pivot. The elimination of Russia as a reliable third player between the US and China compounds deep-rooted developments in European relations. A more inward-looking US involving the Trump administration’s two-front trade war against Europe and China is a factor impacting European relations. European foreign ministries are already factoring in a return of Trump, or a ‘Trump-lite’ president in 2024. The new mantra of domestic and pan-European economic nationalism has emerged amid the far-reaching consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply networks. On 24 April 2022, pro-European incumbent President Emmanuel Macr...