Today Trends

Authors: John T. Deacon and Etel Solingen, UC Irvine The contemporary security context has sharpened Japan’s dilemma regarding nuclear weapons. Japan is surrounded by several nuclear-armed neighbours and depends on US extended deterrence rather than its own nuclear deterrent. An opportunity was embedded in Japan’s role as G7 chair for the 2023 summit in Hiroshima, the site of the 1945 nuclear attack and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s electoral constituency. The dilemma is one Japan has faced for decades. In 1967, then prime minister Eisaku Sato introduced the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, adopted by the Diet, declaring that Japan will not possess, manufacture or introduce nuclear weapons. In 1968, Sato reaffirmed this goal in his Four Pillars of Nuclear Policy, adding commitments to work toward global nuclear disarmament, nuclear energy’s peaceful use and continued reliance on US extended deterrence. In 1976, Japan ratified the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and in 1997 the Compre...

Author: Jayant Menon, ISEAS China is Cambodia’s largest bilateral donor, lender, investor and trading partner. About a quarter of Cambodia’s total trade, a third of aid and two-fifths of foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt involves China. Although Sino-Cambodian diplomatic and economic relations date back centuries, they have grown sharply over recent decades. Economic relations have been strengthened by Cambodia’s active participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Cambodia has been a vocal and enthusiastic proponent of the BRI since its inception in 2013. In Cambodia, the BRI focuses mainly on loans to develop physical transport infrastructure, although it has also been indirectly associated with the development and transformation of the port city of Sihanoukville. There are also investments in agriculture, energy and light manufacturing. Participation in the BRI has costs and benefits . As a Least Developed Country aspiring to achieve upper middle-income ...

Author: Anita Medhekar, Central Queensland University It is time for Australia and India to adopt an independent foreign policy and unlock their trade potential through the signing of a bilateral Australia–India free trade agreement (FTA). The bilateral FTA will bring mutual benefits for both countries, fostering inclusive economic growth and forming strategic preferential partnerships. The revival of Australia–India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) negotiations in September 2021 and the Modi government’s proactive ‘Act East’ policy is important, given the dysfunctional South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The historic Australia–India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA), signed in April 2022, aims to grant Australian producers access to the Indian market and provide opportunities for trade, investment and innovation. The ECTA deal holds strategic significance as both countries distance themselves from China. Integrating Austral...

Authors: Kevin Zhang and Siti Suhaila Harith, ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute Despite being a notch below 100 years old, Malaysia’s former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad remains active in politics. Mahathir, a lifetime champion of Malay rights, was in frequent conflict with the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) throughout much of his first tenure as prime minister from 1981 to 2003. Against this historical backdrop, the rapprochement between the Islamist PAS and Mahathir in May 2023 is perhaps surprising. PAS President Hadi Awang signed up to the ‘ Malay Proclamation ’, a 12-point document written by Mahathir which calls for Malay unity to ‘ restore the political power of Malays ’. Malays — who form Malaysia’s dominant ethnic group — together with other Bumiputera constitute two-thirds of Malaysian citizens. But the proclamation claimed that Malays have ‘lost’ political control — presumably under current Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim — with calls to put aside political differences to ‘re...

Authors: Wanning Sun, UTS and Haiqing Yu, RMIT University To suggest that WeChat — the popular social media platform owned by Chinese company Tencent — has any positive potential for democracy may sound counter-intuitive at best and ludicrous at worst. In the public imagination, no social media platform in the world has been more closely associated with authoritarianism, censorship, control and surveillance than WeChat. WeChat and its Chinese version, Weixin , are ‘two systems’ that operate on ‘one app’. WeChat is designed for users outside mainland China who register with a non-Chinese mobile phone, is governed by local laws and is operated by Singapore-based WeChat International. Weixin is for users who register with a Chinese mobile phone, is governed by Chinese law and is operated by Shenzen-based Tencent. In principle, individual WeChat accounts are not subject to China’s content censorship and WeChat’s user data is stored in Singapore. Yet WeChat has been portrayed as a th...

Author: Maholopa Laveil, Lowy Institute On 30 April, Prime Minister James Marape’s rule reached 47 months, the average tenure of a Papua New Guinean prime minister since independence in 1975. Marape came to office in 2019 touting a ‘ take back PNG ’ policy largely focused on increasing state and landowner equity in resource projects, while paying lip service to other important sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and manufacturing. The Marape government began by making several amendments to the Mining Act and the Oil and Gas Act in 2020. One amendment to the Mining Act granted the government the power to reserve lease renewals for state-owned companies. Amendments to the Oil and Gas Act included granting the Minister of Petroleum the right to refuse a Petroleum Development License and to impose a ‘minimum expected level of return’ on any existing developer. These changes have concentrated power in political hands. The mining amendment enabled the government to renegotiate the te...

Author: Editorial Board, ANU The Thai people have spoken, and there can be no doubt what they asked for: an end to the rule of the proxy parties of the military junta that seized power in the military coup in 2014. To the surprise of some, however, it was not the long-time antagonists of the conservative elite, the Pheu Thai party aligned with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s political clan, who came in first. Instead, the liberal Move Forward party stormed to a commanding lead with around 152 seats in the lower house, with Pheu Thai placing a creditable second on 141. The leading government party Palarang Pracharat was smashed, winning only 41 seats, while the United Thai Nation Party claimed a mere 36. The face of the opposition to Thailand’s establishment has changed, and that change makes the task of placating the royalist–military axis somewhat harder. A détente between the Thaksinists and the military is conceivable, if unlikely, but Move Forward is unlikely to com...

Author: Jacob Ricks, SMU There’s a Thai proverb — ‘flee a tiger only to find a crocodile’  — that describes a situation in Thai politics in the aftermath of this month’s elections aptly. After the progressive anti-junta Move Forward Party’s electoral victory on 14 May 2023, tigers and crocodiles abound. In Thailand’s second general election since the 2014 coup, Move Forward captured the largest number of parliamentary seats (152) based on unofficial Election Commission (ECT) numbers , edging out its opposition ally Pheu Thai (141 seats). The two parties’ combined 293 seats dominate the seats won by parties supporting the former junta chief-turned-prime minister General Prayut Chan-ocha and his ally General Prawit Wongsuwan. Their parties received much weaker support than expected, with only 36 and 40 seats respectively. For fans of Thai democracy, this was a long overdue win. On 18 May, Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of Move Forward and its sole prime ministerial candidate, announ...

Author: Alexander Korolev, UNSW After a year of diplomatic inactivity towards the war in Ukraine, the Chinese government has made demonstrable attempts to look like a peacemaker. But while these moves indicate a change in its behaviour, there is little reason to anticipate that China’s efforts will end the war. China’s 12-point ‘peace plan’ and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s direct phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 26 April 2023, though met with scepticism and criticism in the West, led the international community to believe that China might be able to move the needle far enough to bring the Ukraine war closer to a solution or at least some sort of peace process. But neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to negotiate and make concessions. While the conflict is mutually detrimental, there is no clear battlefield stalemate or strategic impasse that would necessitate immediate negotiations. Neither Ukraine nor Russia is exhausted enough to engage in negotiations,...

Author: Takuya Wakimoto, Deloitte Tohmatsu Space and Security Japan is proud to be one of the most advanced spacefaring nations, with a more than 50 year record of space launches. The H-2A and H2-B rockets have been particularly successful vehicles, boasting a success rate of over 95 per cent. Based on these achievements, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) initiated the H3 launch vehicle program in 2013 to replace the H-2A. JAXA aimed to design a launch vehicle with a globally competitive cost structure and flexible configurations to accommodate user needs while preserving reliability. ‘Make it cheaper’ became the watchword. To achieve this, the H3 adopts as many commercially available off-the-shelf items as practical, reducing the launch cost to half of the H-2A. The agency also redesigned its production methods to incorporate the production-line concept and reduce overall production costs. Japan has made global competitiveness a policy objective because the H3 needs t...