Today Trends

Authors: Shreya Sharma and Karan Babbar, OP Jindal Global University On 18 April 2023, the Indian Supreme Court began hearing arguments in favour of marriage equality from members of the LGBTQ+ community. In what is being called an issue of ‘ seminal’ importance for the country, this debate has arguments from both sides, including whether the judiciary should have any role in the matter at all. Following the decriminalisation of homosexuality in 2018, several writ petitions seeking legal recognition for same-sex marriage were filed at the Supreme Court and the High Courts of Delhi and Kerala. These pleas sought to challenge the 1955 Hindu Marriage Act, 1969 Foreign Marriage Act and 1954 Special Marriage Act. Since the case for marriage equality involves a ‘substantial question of law pertaining to the interpretation of the constitution ’ and will have a ‘ huge bearing on society ’, the Supreme Court appointed five judges to a constitutional bench, led by Chief Justice of India...

Author: Anggara Raharyo, President University A former Indonesian minister of tourism once called Thailand and Indonesia ‘ sparring partners ’. This can be applied not only to tourism but also other sectors, especially automotive manufacturing. The shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) has changed the competition between the two countries in this sector. Both countries have enthusiastically welcomed full-battery EVs more than other types like hybrids. Several major automotive brands, including Toyota, Nissan and Honda, have operated manufacturing plants across Southeast Asia for several decades. But in the EV sector, new players are emerging from the South Korean Hyundai Group and the Chinese SAIC-GM Group. Both have invested in Indonesia , while Thailand has instead managed to attract EV manufacturing from Europe . Both countries are pushing for more investment in EV manufacturing. To achieve their investment targets, they have implemented a set of policies focused on attractin...

Author: Craig Kennedy, Harvard University In January 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed senior Kremlin officials to find solutions to something he termed the ‘ diskont’ — a problem he feared could ‘cause issues with the budget’. Putin was referring to the deep price reductions or ‘discounts’ Russian oil exporters have been forced to offer to willing buyers amid western sanctions. With oil exports the largest contributor to Russian state revenues, these discounts are a cause for concern. They are largely to blame for a 25 per cent year-on-year contraction in Russia’s budget revenues for January and February. That period also saw a 52 per cent spending increase, mostly caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The result is a mushrooming deficit that threatens to erode Moscow’s economic resilience. These discounts are a direct result of the European Union and G7 oil sanctions against Russia and have proven more challenging for Moscow than many anticipated. T...

Author: Jürgen Rüland, University of Freiburg On 24 February 2023, one year after Russia started its war of aggression against Ukraine, the Chinese government published a 12-point plan for ending the hostilities. The plan called for respecting sovereignty, a ceasefire, peace negotiations, protection of civilians, humanitarian aid, abstention from nuclear arms, ending sanctions, refraining from weaponising the global economy and post-conflict reconstruction of Ukraine. On 3 June at the Shangri-la Dialogue, Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto issued what was misperceived as an Indonesian government peace plan . Key components of the plan include a ceasefire, the creation of a demilitarised zone, stationing UN-mandated peacekeeping forces and conducting a UN-organized referendum in contested territories. While Russia greeted both plans with sympathy, the Chinese proposal was met with scepticism in Ukraine and the West. Critics bemoaned its ambiguity. Prabowo’s plan fared ev...

Author: Martin Chorzempa After a record-breaking wave of new sanctions on Russia, a longstanding debate on whether the overuse of sanctions ‘ endangers the dollar’s reign ’ has resurfaced. There is no easy answer, as the basic premise of whether sanctions are being overused is subjective and depends as much on politics as economics. Even if there is widespread agreement that overuse is occurring, it is not clear that the costs and risks of future sanctions justify creating an alternative to the well-oiled global dollar machine. One exception would be the risk of sanctions that the United States might impose on mainland China in the case of a military action related to Taiwan—as it and a coalition of countries imposed sanctions on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine—which would force countries to choose between connecting with the global dollar system or with China. Countries may try to build alternatives to the US dollar system to avoid being forced to make such a choice...

Author: Joseph Chinyong Liow, NTU As great power rivalry casts its long shadow over Southeast Asia, the imperative of regional unity grows more urgent. Yet diversity, divisions and disputes remain consequential features of the region that pose a significant threat to unity. Differences in cultures, languages, religions, historical experiences, political systems and developmental pathways have shaped Southeast Asia as it stands today. Geopolitically, these differences make the challenge of forging unity a particularly onerous task. During the Cold War, diversity manifested in the ideological division of Southeast Asia into communist and non-communist states. This division also assumed a geographical expression in terms of the divide between mainland (mostly communist) and maritime (non-communist) Southeast Asia. Yet the picture that emerges on closer inspection is far more complex. Among the communist mainland states were Chinese and Soviet clients, at a time when the Sino–Soviet ...

Author: Nicholas Farrelly, University of Tasmania The ASEAN Summit in Indonesia in May 2023 saw, once again, the problem for Southeast Asian leaders seeking better outcomes to Myanmar’s political and humanitarian crises. Pleas for giving greater attention to the fading Five-Point Consensus from 2021 jostled with growing disdain for the self-destructive tendencies of Myanmar’s military leadership. Part of the deal for respectability in ASEAN is to focus on practical and reasonable steps to achieve agreed outcomes. Myanmar now fails every time . Such failure means Myanmar is a problem for China’s leaders too, who have been watching closely since the 2021 military coup. China’s foreign policy establishment and analysts think deeply about the opportunities and risks of future scenarios across Southeast Asia. It should not be forgotten that former leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s deposed government in Myanmar was in key respects a useful partner for China’s regional ambitions. The coup was ...

Author: Chiranjib Sen, Azim Premji University The January 2023 Hindenburg Research report accused the Adani Group — one of India’s largest conglomerates — of share price irregularities. The Adani Group is mainly an infrastructure and energy company with assets acquired through privatisation and has received significant financing from public sector banks. Its market value had risen dramatically since 2019 until the report caused its share prices to plummet. This episode has catapulted ‘crony capitalism’ to the centre of a strident political debate in India. Opposition parties have demanded a parliamentary probe, which Prime Minister Modi’s government is reluctant to initiate. The Supreme Court appointed an expert committee to advise it on possible errors by the Securities and Exchange Board of India — the top financial market regulator. Though it found no apparent regulatory violation, the controversy seems unlikely to abate soon. But this is not the first controversy concerning ...

Author: Joseph Negrine, ANU Like many nations, Vietnam’s growth prospects are challenged by conflicting objectives. The ruling Communist Party aims to reach high-income status by 2045 , which would improve wellbeing indicators. But the Party has also committed to various environmental targets . In light of Vietnam’s susceptibility to climate change, it should prioritise ‘green growth’ — ensuring that the economy’s natural assets can support the wellbeing of future generations. Over the past three decades, Vietnam has used its competitive advantages in agriculture and cheap labour to increase its exports at an average rate of 12 per cent each year. But the longevity of this export-led growth is doubtful. Decreasing rice yields and lower fishery catches suggest that Vietnam’s production levels, encouraged by export demand, are depleting its natural resources . Farmers in the Mekong Delta have sought to increase rice production with high-yielding seeds and chemical fertilisers. This...

Author: Paul Chambers, Naresuan University Over a month after Thailand’s progressive Move Forward party and its prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat won a decisive victory in the country’s general election, a minefield of legal, political and military obstacles is hindering his accession to the premiership. The Election Commission (EC) is investigating whether Pita contested the election while illegally holding media shares. If found guilty, Pita would be barred from office , Move Forward could be dissolved and its winning MPs might be disqualified . On 20 June, the EC endorsed all 500 winning electoral candidates, though it left open the possibility of investigating any later. But the Move Forward-led eight-party, 312-member coalition-in-waiting — which includes Pheu Thai — still needs 64 of the 250-member junta-appointed Senate to achieve the constitutionally-mandated 376 seats to form government . Even before parliamentary approval, Move Forward and Pheu Thai remain at ...