Today Trends

Author: Cheng-Chwee Kuik, National University of Malaysia Since its inception in 1967, ASEAN has served as a platform for its member states and its dialogue partners across the wider Asia Pacific community. One relatively understudied function of ASEAN is its role as a platform for institutional ‘hedging’ in the post-Cold War era. In Southeast Asia, ASEAN and the ASEAN+ multilateral mechanisms have provided an avenue for small- and medium-sized states to hedge against multiple risks associated with the rise of China, US-China competition and wider strategic uncertainties. The states’ converging efforts (not necessarily collective nor coordinated actions) occur alongside unilateral and bilateral channels for hedging and allow them to simultaneously pursue actions that engage and constrain China at the regional level. Engagement is the active use of multilateral and bilateral processes to forge increasingly close, comprehensive and productive ties with China — and for that matte...

Author: Rishi Gupta, Asia Society Policy Institute The Prime Minister of Nepal, Pushpa Kamal Dahal (known as Prachanda), made a four-day visit to India from 31 May to 3 June 2023. This was his fourth visit to India as Prime Minister and his first overseas visit since taking office for the third time in December 2022. The visit came at a time when India’s ties with Nepal have reached the lowest point in recent history. This is due to the ongoing border dispute and Nepal’s reservation about continuing the recruitment of Nepali Gorkhas in the Indian Army for a fixed four-year term under the controversial Agnipath Scheme . The most recent contentions between India and Nepal began with the Indian government’s release of a new political map in November 2019. The need for a new map arose after the abrogation of Article 370 in the Indian Constitution, which ended the special status given to the state of Jammu and Kashmir and created a new Union Territory of Ladakh. Nepal objected to th...

Author: Editorial Board, ANU The failure of Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat to be appointed as Thailand’s prime minister — blocked by an unelected Senate and suspended from parliament on dubious legal grounds — was a travesty of democracy, but an all too predictable one. Still, Move Forward’s surprise first-place showing in the May 2023 general elections speaks to new political dynamics and divides that have emerged since the most recent military coup in 2014 and the rule of military-backed parties after general elections in 2019. Analysis of the results from May has shown how Move Forward made significant ground in regional areas where Pheu Thai and regional machines were dominant. Perhaps as significant now is a generational divide, as younger Thais fed up with the stifling political culture demand political and social reform. To many younger progressives, exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his proxy party, Pheu Thai, are just another part of the po...

Author: Patrick Jory, UQ The big surprise of Thailand’s 14 May general election was the performance of the Move Forward Party, which seemed to be a rebuke of nine years of political dominance by the monarchy and military-backed government. Move Forward has a radical, progressive agenda that aims to reduce the influence of the monarchy and military in Thai politics and to begin dismantling the monopolies that distort Thailand’s economy. It emerged with the largest number of seats, 151, out of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives, and with 38 per cent of the vote. A provisional coalition of other progressive parties — including Pheu Thai, the party of exiled billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra — agreed to put forward the leader of Move Forward, Harvard graduate Pita Limjaroenrat, as prime minister. Two months later, a sense of realism has set in. Move Forward was unable to place one of their MPs into the key role of speaker of the lower house of parliament. On 13 July, Pita fai...

Author: Jina Kim, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies To mark the 70th anniversary of the US–ROK alliance, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol held a summit with US President Joe Biden in April 2023. The outcome of this summit was the Washington Declaration , in which the United States vowed to strengthen extended deterrence consultations, while South Korea restated its non-proliferation obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) framework. While this declaration may seem new, it encompasses several key aspects agreed by both sides since 2017 under the Moon Jae-in administration, primarily through their respective defence ministries. Under the declaration, the United States has committed to consult with South Korea on potential nuclear weapons employment on the Korean Peninsula. But it does not specify the timeliness or extent of such consultations, leaving the level and scope of US commitment subject to discretion. The declaration includes a commitment to enhance the ...

Author: Kiyohito Hanai, Seijo University Japan experienced the ‘bubble economy’ throughout the 1980s, followed by its subsequent burst in the early 1990s. For nearly 20 years after that, it suffered from economic stagnation indicated by repeated negative economic growth and long-term deflation, often called the lost two decades. Japan’s bubble experience provides a valuable lesson about the limitations of trying to revive the economy solely through macroeconomic policies while ignoring structural reforms. Today, despite concerns about the arrival of the ninth wave of the COVID-19 crisis, the Japanese economy is recovering and returning to its pre-COVID situation. In May 2023, the government downgraded the classification of COVID-19 infections to Class 5, which is the same category as seasonal influenza. As a sign of Japan’s economic recovery, there have been soaring condominium prices in Tokyo and rising stock prices at the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In June, the Nikkei Stock Average rea...

Author: Aim Sinpeng, Sydney University In Thailand’s general election in May, the Move Forward Party (MFP) emerged as the big winner with 151 seats thanks in large part to social media. While all major political parties were actively campaigning online, the MFP’s influence far outstripped their opponents. The key to the MFP’s online success was its fan base, who came together, largely organically, to promote and support the party. As one of the world’s most social media active countries, social media platforms were key battlegrounds for Thailand’s 14 May general election . With more than 80 per cent of the population now on social media, online campaigning was no longer optional. The most popular hashtag used in the lead up to the election day, across Facebook, Twitter and TikTok was #election23, and the MFP dominated online conversations relating to the election and its content was engaged with the most. Compared to other parties, Thai people talked, shared and interacted with t...

Author: Amita Batra, JNU The regulations establishing the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) entered into force on 16 May 2023. The CBAM, which imposes a price on the carbon emitted directly and indirectly during the production of carbon-intensive goods entering the EU, will be implemented in two phases. The transitional phase beginning 1 October 2023 will cover carbon-intensive imports in six sectors — aluminium, cement, electricity, fertilisers, iron and steel and hydrogen — imposing only reporting requirements on importers. The CBAM charge will be effective from 1 January 2026 and will apply to imports from all countries except those linked to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) or with an equivalent carbon pricing mechanism. The CBAM is expected to encourage decarbonisation at the global level while also preventing ‘carbon leakage’. But a careful review of the CBAM’s design and proposed implementation reveals inherent inconsistencies and c...

Author: Brad Glosserman, Tama University Economic security has become a national security priority but it remains poorly understood. The ensuing debates have been stunted or misdirected. Failure to grasp the full sweep of economic security concerns and the strategic significance of new and emerging technologies undermines efforts to get economic security right. Leadership in economic security will determine winners in today’s geopolitical competition. Prevailing in this race must be states’ overriding consideration, even if it demands rejection of economic and foreign policy orthodoxy. Traditionally, economic security has manifested in two forms, one legitimate and the other not. One manifestation is ‘legitimate’ because there are multilateral initiatives that give them substance, indicative of compliance with international law and acceptance. An expression of the legitimate form is strategic trade controls, which aim to prevent a country’s trade or commerce from being used to str...