Today Trends

Author: Yuhan Zhang, UC Berkeley On 11 November 2022, the People’s Bank of China and the former Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a joint notice outlining 16 supporting policies for the real estate sector. It was aimed at ‘maintaining orderly and stable real estate financing, improving financial services for building handover, handling risks of distressed real estate companies, and increasing financial support for housing rental’. China’s overall real estate policy has relaxed since then. On 10 July 2023, the People’s Bank of China and the National Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau issued an additional notice to extend the policy period. This reaffirms Beijing’s commitment to supporting the ‘healthy development’ of the real estate industry. The extension involves two key points. Financial institutions were encouraged to support existing real estate loans through loan extensions and adjusted repayments. Loans due before 31 December 2024 could be ext...

Authors: Chang-Yau Hoon and Kaili Zhao, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, and Guanie Lim, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies As the third-largest oil producer in Southeast Asia and the fourth-largest producer of liquefied natural gas in the world, Brunei is blessed with vast oil and gas reserves . The country has long enjoyed impressive per capita income and living standards, second only to Singapore within Southeast Asia. The Sultanate has generally managed its natural resource wealth generally well, enabling the establishment of a comprehensive welfare system that is virtually unmatched in the region. This system includes benefits such as income tax waivers, free education and healthcare for its small population of around 450,000 people. But such mineral reserves are inherently depletable. This realisation has forced Bruneian policymakers to diversify the economy. One of the most concrete manifestations of Brunei’s diversification is the Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei Visi...

Author: Daniel Sneider, Stanford University The 18 August 2023 summit that brought together the leaders of Japan, South Korea and the United States at Camp David was rightly hailed as a breakthrough moment in consolidating trilateral security ties, especially after years of near-frozen relations. US officials stressed the importance of creating enduring institutions and structures among the three countries. These institutions could be nested within other Indo-Pacific regional creations like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the newer AUKUS security pact and cooperation with the Philippines. The summit documents offered both a vision of partnership and a variety of practical agreements . They include everything from annual leadership summits to meetings at the ministerial and official levels to coordinate on economic security, supply chains and cyber security, as well as classic security steps such as joint military exercises. Perhaps the most striking outcome of this summit w...

Author: Colette Mortreux, University of Melbourne There has been much discussion about the impacts of climate change on migration, with calls that the world is entering an ‘ era of mass migration ’ and ‘ unimaginable crisis ’. Many communities in the Pacific are increasingly feeling the pressure of climate change including on livelihoods , food security and health . But the impact on migration is less clear. The Pacific is a diverse region with diverse needs. Not all islands are low-lying, and climate sensitivities and capacities are diverse. Governments need to act quickly, yet they need to do so in ways that engage meaningfully with those who need support, providing a solid evidence base for their decision-making. It is difficult for researchers to establish a direct relationship between climate change and migration as the decision to migrate is often multicausal, with migrants tending to describe their motivation as related to economic or educational opportunities, even when t...

Author: Christina Knight, Stanford Semiconductors comprise the battleground for US–China technology competition. On 7 October 2022, the Biden administration released a set of export controls to ensure the United States maintains ‘ as large a lead as possible ’ in this emerging technology race. The restrictions attempt to constrain Beijing’s emerging technology development in two ways. First, they limit China’s access to advanced semiconductors necessary for data-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) models, supercomputers and hypersonic missiles. Second, the measures curtail China’s ability to create these cutting-edge chips by preventing China from using US-built semiconductor design and manufacturing equipment, including the electronic design automation (EDA) software required to design advanced semiconductors. But engineers at China’s top technology university — Tsinghua University — indicate that the 7 October export controls may not fully accomplish Washington’s objectives an...

Author: Kumiko Nemoto, Senshu University According to the 2023 World Economic Forum Global Gender Gap Report, Japan ranked 125th out of 146 countries in terms of gender parity — the lowest among G7 countries and in the East Asia and Pacific region. Women accounted for only 11.4 per cent of board members in Japanese companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s Prime Market in 2022, while in Western economies women make up around 30 per cent of board members. Women are also absent from middle management positions. A 2022 study of over 10,000 Japanese companies found that only about 9 per cent of their managers were women . In addressing this problem, Japan has two different models to consult — the mandatory quota model and the model of investor pressure. Japan could follow the European Union’s approach by prioritising government-led social equality initiatives and adopting gender quotas. By 2026, the EU will require women to occupy 40 per cent of seats on the boards of large c...

Authors: Rania Teguh, ANU and Fajar B Hirawan, CSIS Indonesia Indonesia’s pursuit of the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) membership is an opportunity for it to develop advanced economy credentials and for partners, including Australia, to actively promote an emerging regional power. Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto announced on 20 July 2023 that Indonesia has already gained in-principle support for its eventual membership from OECD Secretary-General Matthias Cormann. Cormann met with Indonesian President Joko Widodo in Jakarta in early August 2023. Indonesia cited its return to upper-middle income status and its successful G20 presidency as key enablers for its OECD bid. Indonesia’s decision to bid for membership is likely driven in part by positive exposure to the OECD through its G20 presidency — a stark contrast to the usual perceptions held by emerging economies — and its long-term status as OECD Key Partner...

Author: Editorial Board, ANU Like it or not, the structure of global trade in green technologies and the raw materials required for their manufacture is being decided in an era when geopolitics trump markets, and the WTO’s credibility to check the abuse of national security exceptions is near rock bottom. The upshot, as Mari Pangestu explains  in this week’s lead article , excerpted from the upcoming edition of the  East Asia Forum Quarterly ,  is that the green transition is greasing the political skids for a resurrection of inward-looking industrial policy. ‘Achieving net zero carbon emissions will require an estimated seven-fold increase in demand for transition-critical minerals between 2021 and 2040’, Pangestu highlights. Yet because of China’s dominance in the processing of these minerals, and in the production of the batteries that need them, ‘developed countries have introduced industrial policies such as reshoring the sourcing of transition-critical minerals...

Author: Mari Pangestu, University of Indonesia Developed and developing countries have been escalating the use of industrial policy through subsidies, trade restrictions and other instruments to secure the supply of transition-critical minerals and rare earths essential for developing low-carbon technologies and the move to green energy. But these policies have created uncertainties and their impact on the green transition needs careful assessment. Achieving net zero carbon emissions will require an estimated seven-fold increase in demand for transition-critical minerals between 2021 and 2040. Currently, the United States and the European Union import 80 per cent and 98 per cent of their critical mineral needs respectively, while Japan imports 90 per cent. Given these dependencies, there are heightened concerns around access to supply of transition-critical minerals, especially given the concentration of supplies in China. While the extraction of critical minerals is dominated by C...