Today Trends

Author: Editorial Board, ANU For the past quarter of a century Japan has enjoyed stability. Perhaps too much stability: for more than two decades, prices, wages and interest rates have barely changed even though the structure of the global economy, technology and market conditions have changed remarkably. That stability was achieved largely by failure to confront some difficult structural challenges. The government has spent its way through the problems of the past two decades, accumulating record debt as the population aged and shrank. What might appear to be an unsustainable strategy has, nonetheless, not faltered in Japan, although that doesn’t mean it will be viable indefinitely. Japan’s population peaked in 2008 and last year it shrank by 800,000. The working age population peaked a decade earlier and the proportion of elderly in the population continues to rise. Japan is a super-aged society with around 30 per cent of its population over 65, the highest share anywhere in th...

Author: Masahiko Takeda, ANU The Japanese economy in 2023 had two distinct features. Macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP and employment, were broadly in good shape. But economic trends that are unsustainable kept worsening, raising concerns about Japan’s future economic stability. Japan’s real GDP growth in 2023 was slightly above 1 per cent — modest, but not bad given potential growth estimated at below 1 per cent. The output gap — the difference between actual and potential output — is closing, the unemployment rate , which ticked up during the COVID-19 crisis, has fallen and the national jobs-to-applications ratio is well over 1. Consumer price inflation is currently around 3 per cent , exceeding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2 per cent target. Corporate profits are buoyant, share prices have reached a post-bubble high and inbound tourism has recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels, benefiting industries hit hard by the pandemic. Despite these positives, most of the Japanese populace ...

Author: Jenny Balboa, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies After an almost seven-year imprisonment, former senator Leila De Lima was released on bail in November 2023. In her speech, she thanked the Marcos administration for respecting the rule of law. De Lima’s choice of words is not accidental. It was a loaded statement to fan the growing political wedge between the Marcos and the Duterte families — the UniTeam Alliance that won by a landslide in the 2022 Philippine elections. It is widely known in the Philippines that former president Rodrigo Duterte’s vendetta was responsible for the incarceration of De Lima — his political arch-nemesis. De Lima led the investigation into reported killings of alleged drug suspects and human rights violations linked to Duterte when he was Davao City mayor and president. De Lima’s release may widen the gap between Duterte and President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. The political struggle between the Marcos and Duterte camps has been going on ...

Author: Kerryn Baker, ANU Reconciliation set the scene in 2023 in the Pacific. In January, newly elected Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, also chair of the Pacific Islands Forum at the time, visited Kiribati, seeking to convince the government not to leave the Forum. After Rabuka officially apologised on behalf of the Forum, Kiribati President Taneti Maamau confirmed that the country would remain. This marked a promising turn after the Pacific’s peak regional body faced turmoil when five Micronesian states moved to exit in early 2021. A press statement from the Kiribati government referred to it as ‘the restoration of unity in the Blue Pacific family’. Yet some cracks in the unity of the Blue Pacific remain, as the events of 2023 suggest. Despite a conciliatory tone at the 2023 Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in the Cook Islands, there was evidence of ongoing divisions. Nauruan President David Adeang walked out when the appointment of the Secretary-General — expecte...

Author: Bolor Lkhaajav, Washington DC Mongolia’s exports are 90 per cent dependent on natural resource extraction. In October 2023, during a state visit to France, Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh signed a landmark agreement that paved the way for a US$1.7 billion investment by French government-owned Orano Mining. The agreement allows Orano to establish Mongolia’s first uranium mining and processing venture. For Mongolia’s landlocked economy, mining partnerships are strategic tools for foreign policy endeavours. Uranium has long been a critical mineral for the global energy system, fuelling vast amounts of reliable and low-carbon nuclear energy. As the world strives towards net-zero emissions targets, uranium is poised to enable unprecedented expansion of nuclear generation. It is this global transition that is driving Mongolia’s ambition to emerge as a new leader in the uranium market, adding diversity to its already prosperous copper export capabilities. With deep and rela...

Author: Sen Gong, Zhejiang University At the 76th United Nations (UN) General Assembly in September 2021, China unveiled its Global Development Initiative (GDI). The GDI aims to enhance international attention on global development and speed up implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Since its inauguration, more than 100 countries and international organisations, including the UN, have endorsed this new initiative. As part of the GDI , the Chinese Government has established a special agency, an earmarked fund of US$4 billion and a library of global development projects. Beijing has also mobilised US$12 billion from domestic and international financial institutions. As of August 2023, more than 200 ‘ small and beautiful ’ projects have been carried out. The GDI promises a fresh perspective on global development, especially for Asia, and its principles and aspirations are encouraging. Yet a true measure of the GDI’s effectiveness will lie in its practical elem...

Author: Hideaki Tanaka, Meiji University In September 2023, Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology nominated Tohoku University as a candidate to be a ‘University for International Research Excellence’ (UIRE). This program is supported by Japan’s 10 trillion yen (US$68.7 billion) University Fund (UF). The UF is an excellence initiative managed by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST). The agency established the UF as an investment fund mainly by borrowing from the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program. Ten trillion yen in stocks and bonds are invested in the UF, and its annual return is expected to be 300 billion yen. The UF’s return will be provided to the UIRE program. According to a government paper , world-class universities such as Harvard and Oxford develop their own visions, autonomously expand their budgets and conduct innovative research. On the other hand, Japanese universities seemingly cannot change their traditional ideas and manage...

Authors: Mendee Jargalsaikhan and Enkhbayar Namjildorj, Institute for Strategic Studies of Mongolia Mongolia is successfully navigating great power geopolitical rivalry, the dynamics of electoral democracy and the challenges that face small, resource-based economies. But current political and economic trends, if not managed cautiously, could trigger more challenges for Mongolia ahead of its 2024 parliamentary election. Despite attempts by Beijing and Moscow to influence Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia continues to maintain an independent foreign policy. For example, Beijing’s authority was undermined when Mongolia’s religious leaders officially announced the reincarnation of the tenth Jebtsundamba Khutughtu, one of the key leaders of Tibetan Buddhism. Russian officials have similarly voiced discontent over the alleged rise of Western influence in Mongolia. These concerns may have formed the rationale behind Beijing and Moscow’s decision to invite the Secretary of Mongolia’s National Securit...

Authors: Mari Pangestu, World Bank, and Novia Xu, CSIS Decarbonisation in Asia is urgent considering the region accounted for 53 per cent of global CO2 emissions in 2021 and continues to grow. The most effective solution to address the impacts of CO2 emissions should remove fossil fuel subsidies and implement a carbon tax — but for many countries this is politically infeasible. Governments worldwide have turned to industrial policy to meet net zero commitments through subsidies, tax incentives, infrastructure evolution, research and development support and regulations — so-called green industrial policy . Green industrial policy demonstrates that the free market is not working well enough to fast-track the green economy transition. The case for green industrial policy is strong because, as long as the spillovers from green technologies are diffused globally through trade and investment, it increases the competitiveness of green industries. The issue with green industrial policies ...