Today Trends

Author: Andrew Selth, Griffith Asia Institute Since the February 2021 coup, resistance to the junta in Myanmar has grown from protest rallies and civil disobedience campaigns to a nation-wide civil war that encompasses terrorist-style attacks in urban centres and guerrilla campaigns in rural districts. The military regime has responded to these challenges, in part, by exploiting its command of the air . This has in turn led to louder and more frequent calls for the imposition of a no-fly zone over Myanmar, policed by foreign powers under the aegis of the United Nations (UN). These calls, however, are likely to be in vain. An effective and internationally-enforced air exclusion zone over Myanmar is one idea that, for several reasons, will not fly. Anti-junta groups started calling for the imposition of a no-fly zone soon after the coup. Last April, for example, Myanmar’s UN representative (who was appointed by the former government) called for a no-fly zone ‘to avoid further

Author: Anthony V Rinna, Sino-NK Tensions between Russia and the West over a feared Russian military intervention in Ukraine has escalated with fears of an imminent invasion. South Korea’s relationship with Russia means that the ROK cannot afford to ignore geopolitical developments in Ukraine. How South Korea responds to the Ukraine crisis will be an important geopolitical and ideological test for Seoul’s foreign policy commitment to liberal internationalism. South Korea faces a unique situation having to balance the continental and maritime aspects of its geopolitical orientation. Developments in Ukraine underscore the geographic scope of how South Korea’s status as a geopolitical player in Eurasia affects Seoul’s attempts to pursue a commitment to liberalism, as well as narrower national interest. While the Russia–South Korea bilateral partnership is not the strongest of either Moscow’s or Seoul’s diplomatic relationships, the relationship is generally devoid of overt tensions.

Authors: Sol Iglesias, University of the Philippines and David Camroux, Sciences Po As Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s term nears its end, many fear that he will remain unaccountable for gross human rights violations. The Philippines’ political highlights of 2021 revolved around Duterte’s final manoeuvres in office, the dramatic overture of the election season and the first Nobel Peace Prize awarded to a Filipino citizen. Duterte has presided over unprecedented mass violence in his so-called ‘war on drugs’, which has killed at least 30,000 people since he took office in July 2016, mostly poor men and youths in urban areas. On 15 September 2021, the pre-trial chamber of the International Criminal Court authorised an official investigation into Duterte for crimes against humanity. The charges encompass the violence of the bloody campaign as well as killings by the Davao City Death Squad during his lengthy tenure as mayor. Duterte’s punitive populism also escalated to lethal v

Author: Kim Kee-seok, Kangwon National University In 2022, two political challenges lie ahead for the ruling Moon Jae-in administration and the Democratic Party of Korea — the nation’s 20th presidential election on 9 March and the 8th local elections on 1 June. South Korea’s current political landscape is unprecedented in its modern history. The progressives have control over all levels of government, including the Blue House, National Assembly and a majority of local governments and councils. This is the first time since the founding of the Republic of Korea that the progressives have seized all institutional political power. The notable achievements of the progressives have been matched by the fatal failures of the conservatives. The candlelight protests and subsequent impeachment of the conservative Park Geun-hye government in 2016 were extraordinary developments that strengthened South Korea’s democracy and left conservatives flailing. Without putting forth a meaningful chall

Author: Kirill Nourzhanov, ANU In 2021, the five Central Asian republics celebrated 30 years of independence. They may not have fought for emancipation from the Soviet Union, but Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have achieved genuine statehood and learned how to survive as sovereign nations. Their political and economic systems, while lacking in freedom, matured enough to safeguard against pressing existential threats . These accomplishments were put to the test in 2021 against the common background of the COVID-19 pandemic. In January 2021, the President of Tajikistan prematurely announced victory over COVID-19 in his country. In the second half of the year, Central Asia struggled with a new wave of infections , reaching one and a half million cases and 22,000 deaths among the combined population of 74 million. The government of Turkmenistan continues to deny any cases or deaths, but independent reports suggest it had not escaped the morbid effect

Author: Roshni Kapur, Singapore Islamic fundamentalism and violence is on the rise in Bangladesh. Anti-France protests, violent protests during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit and communal violence in Comilla all demonstrate the influence Islamist radicals have, particularly Hefazat-e-Islam. The rise of hardline Islamic forces poses a challenge to the Bangladeshi government on whether it will protect its secular principles or continue its patronage politics. Hefazat-e-Islam was formed in January 2010 in Chittagong under the leadership of Ahmad Shafi to safeguard Islam from alleged anti-Islamic policies and to end secularism. The group’s inception was triggered by the 2009 Women Development Policy draft that proposed giving equal inheritance rights to women. The group is comprised of Sunni Islamists and their vast madrassa network and supporters. Although Hefazat-e-Islam is not a political party, the leaders have openly lobbied for political and legal reforms. The gro

Author: Kearrin Sims, James Cook University It was a milestone year for Laos in 2021. The ruling Lao Peoples’ Revolutionary Party held its 11th Congress , finally realised its long-held aspiration to graduate from Least Developed Country status, and released a draft of the country’s ninth National Socio-Economic Development Plan. Laos also joined the newly ratified Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), commenced operations on the highly controversial Kunming to Vientiane high-speed railway, and the leadership duo of President Thongloun Sisoulith and Prime Minister Phankham Viphavanh undertook some much-needed action on political corruption. Laos was first categorised as a Least Developed Country by the United Nations in 1971, and graduating from this status had been a major development priority since 2000. The 2021 recommendation for graduation — with an extended five-year preparatory period to 2026 — likely brought pride to many in government. But graduation will als

Author: MD Mufassir Rashid, Dhaka Since the military coup on 1 February 2021, Myanmar’s Rakhine State has remained relatively stable and long-standing ethnic divisions appear to be on a path towards improvement. The Arakan Army (AA) — a Rakhine-based ethnic armed organisation operating since 2009 alongside its political wing, the United League of Arakan — has emerged as one of Rakhine’s key political and military actors.  Since then, the AA has maintained an unofficial ceasefire with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military regime). The AA has also started to recruit Rohingya peoples into its organisational structure and has been officially claiming to be creating an inclusive, federalist government to counter the Tatmadaw’s dominance in Rakhine. In a recent interview with Prothom Alo, a leading Bangladeshi newspaper, the AA’s Commander in Chief General Twan Mrat Naing discussed the AA’s stance on the Rohingya issue and the current situation in Rakhine. Naing claimed that the AA was dis

Author: Shujiro Urata, Waseda University The year 2021 began with hope that the successful development of a new vaccine would relieve the world from the COVID-19 pandemic. But while vaccines were rapidly deployed in Europe and the United States, the Japanese government’s slow approval process delayed its rollout. Under former prime minister Yoshihide Suga, the vaccine rollout was eventually accelerated after administrative and logistical hiccups were resolved, contributing to a decline in the number of infections. A state of emergency continued until 30 September as Suga needed to keep cases low to host the Olympics and to increase his chances of being re-elected as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the late-September election. Suga hosted the Olympics in the face of general public opposition. The number of infections skyrocketed during the event, resulting in a rapid decline in Suga’s approval rating and forcing him to cede his leadership of the LDP. Fumio Kishid

Author: Arun R Swamy, University of Guam For India, 2021 was a year of trauma and portent. Alongside the continuing COVID-19 crisis — despite an ostensibly successful vaccination drive — the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) anti-democratic tendencies intensified. A year-long protest by farmers eventually resulted in the government withdrawing a landmark bill to liberalise agricultural trade. State elections heralded the strength of regional parties. Yet despite domestic setbacks, India raised its profile regionally and globally. India’s COVID-19 surge between March and June 2021 was exceptionally high and sharp. By the end of the year, the country had recorded nearly 40 million positive tests, totalling 3 per cent of the population and 500,000 deaths. Both numbers are likely gross underestimates given the lack of reporting and testing in rural areas. By mid-year, the economy was reeling and the crisis took a toll on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. This led the