Today Trends

Author: Jia Deng, Lowy Institute Since the beginning of the Russia–Ukraine war, China has been urged to give up its ‘chilling silence’ and help to stop Russian military aggression in Ukraine. Despite international pressure over its policy of expedient neutrality, China is patiently biding its time and waiting on the sidelines as the conflict unfolds. China’s sense of vulnerability is the key factor determining its reaction to the Russia–Ukraine war. China’s sense of vulnerability is derived from what it perceives to be its uniquely fragile geopolitical position . China is in a peculiar position, prone to the influence of both Russia and the United States, the two geopolitical superpowers. Since the end of the Cold War, China has developed ad hoc cooperation with Russia driven by their common threat perception toward the United States. China expects that cooperative Russia–China relations will serve its interest by diverting the unwanted attention of the United States away from Chi

Author: Richard Pomfret, University of Adelaide In 1991, the five Central Asian economies were republics of the Soviet Union, with trade and transport oriented towards Russia. Over three decades of independence, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have built railways, roads and pipelines to the east and south and diversified trade partners, distancing themselves from Russia. The war in Ukraine is accentuating these processes. The immediate effect of the war will be to disrupt trade and labour flows. While Russia remains an important trade partner for the Central Asian countries, in 2020, it was less important than the European Union or China. The most serious logistical challenges will be for Kazakhstan, the only one of the countries that borders Russia. A large share of oil and grains have been exported through Russia and the Black Sea but alternative pipelines and railway lines are available. Central Asian imports from Russia are mainly manufa

Authors: Rania Teguh and Albert Jehoshua Rapha, CSIS Indonesia Indonesia is the world’s largest palm oil producer. On 28 April 2022, the government ordered an export ban designed to address domestic cooking oil shortages and reduce food prices. The policy extends to crude palm oil and refined products, and is expected to last until the price of cooking oil goes below Rp 14,000 (US$1) per litre. This decision comes as a shock to the market amid fears that the ban will worsen global food inflation, adding uncertainty to a market that has already suffered massive price swings. The policy resembles the coal commodities export ban of January 2022, when the government stopped coal exports due to reduced domestic supply. The prices of these two commodities have increased globally, but the Indonesian government wants them to stay low. The large gap between the domestic price and the astronomical prices companies can receive from international markets has incentivised these companies to

Author: Céline Pajon, French Institute of International Relations Laying the foundation for the Eighth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD), Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi held talks on 28 March 2022 with ministers from 50 African nations. Hayashi expressed concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine had increased the economic and social vulnerabilities of African countries — deepening their dependence on China. He subsequently committed to increase Japan’s cooperation with Africa. Japan’s economic diplomacy in Africa pursues both economic and geopolitical objectives. Japan aims to catch up with other Asian and Western actors, moving from a focus on official development assistance to a private investment-based approach. It is also in competition with China, aiming to provide an alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa. Tokyo’s support for private business was outlined by Foreign Minister Hayashi as the first of th

Author: Christian Kurzydlowski, Toronto. Global strategic considerations are fluid and ever changing. India’s geography and location position it at the nexus of global supply chains and powerful state and non-state actors. It needs every advantage at its disposal to compete, defend, grow and trade. India will have to balance pressure from the United States, a key partner in the Indo-Pacific initiative for maritime security , to counter Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea. In return, the United States acts as guarantor against Chinese threats to India’s land borders and Chinese engagement with Pakistan. India will also have to balance its relationship with Russia, considering India’s tilt toward the United States and Russia’s strategic focus on its relationship with China. But India has space to manoeuvre. Among the main factors driving the scope and scale of India’s economic change is its start-up ecosystem . From a defence point of view, India’s start-up ecosystem, in particu

Author: Liselotte Odgaard, Norwegian Institute of Defence Studies  Russia’s willingness to use force in Europe creates incentives for a division of labour between Europe and the United States. This allows Europe to focus on deterring challenges on NATO’s eastern and northern flank, while the United States focuses on preventing Beijing from turning the Indo-Pacific into a Chinese sphere of influence. The recent US Indo-Pacific strategy recognises the strategic value of an increasing role for the European Union in the region. Indo-Pacific powers such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore are equally interested in a European defence presence, sharing Europe’s reluctance to choose sides between Washington and Beijing.  But will Europe be able to deliver on its intention to increase its Indo-Pacific engagement?  Following the meetings of NATO’s Ministers of Foreign Affairs , NATO’s General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg announced that the alliance’s next strategic concept will take i

Author: Yvette To, CityU Pursuing ‘common prosperity’ is one of the latest strategic goals of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This new initiative aims to reduce social inequality through primary income distribution, government-led redistribution efforts such as regulation, and social philanthropy. While the concept is not new , some of the necessary policies are. Responding to an increasing urban–rural gap, former president Jiang Zemin emphasised the need to ‘raise the proportion of the middle-income group and increase the income of the low-income group’ to achieve common prosperity back in 2002. President Xi Jinping reinvoked the concept of common prosperity in August 2021. Some see the idea of common prosperity as embedded in China’s socialist ideology — but from a governance perspective, the new policy direction is considered timely and pragmatic as income and wealth gaps in China have worsened due to the pandemic. So far, the CCP’s new initiative of reducing wealth ga

Authors: Ross Buckley and Mia Trzecinski, UNSW Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States, European Union and their allies have imposed extraordinary financial sanctions on Russia. They have frozen US$300 billion of Russia’s foreign currency reserves , removed Russian institutions from SWIFT — the messaging service that facilitates international payments — and banned most foreign investment into the country. The impact of these sanctions — which have cut Russia off from the global financial system — has been severe. Inflation in Russia has increased to over 17 per cent and is likely to accelerate further. There are major shortages in food , drugs , medical gear and IT equipment . Over 750 companies have announced plans to suspend or end investments and operations in Russia. The rouble is no longer a convertible currency. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicts that the war will cause Russia’s economy to contract by 10 per cent this

Author: Editorial Board, ANU The last time a Marcos claimed victory in a Philippine presidential election, it was on the back of a victory so tainted by fraud it sparked a democratic revolution. Thirty-six years later, voters in Southeast Asia’s second-biggest democracy have delivered Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr to the presidential palace from which he fled along with his father into exile. Those who fought for democracy in the 1986 ‘people power’ revolution, and who fought to protect the achievements of the movement since then, are understandably shellshocked. In our first lead article this week , Ronald Holmes writes that ‘Bongbong’s victory testifies to an effective rebranding of his persona’ that ‘glorified martial law and refuted narratives about [his] family’s ill-gotten wealth’. As Ferdinand Sr’s dictatorship recedes into history, many voters seem to have bought Ferdinand Jr’s line that it was a golden era of progress and stability. Polls showed a pro-Marcos wave across