Today Trends

Author: Editorial Board, ANU The end of 2022 left no doubt that the Biden administration in Washington had joined its predecessor on the mission to trash the rules-based international trading system, of which the United States had been the architect-in-chief in the aftermath of the Second World War. In December, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai thumbed her nose at the WTO rulings against the Trump administration’s steel and aluminium tariffs, which she too had gone into bat for. And Biden’s team introduced the CHIPS and Science Act that sought to limit Chinese participation in the complex international semiconductor chip trade and production networks. Gone is any pretence of not forcing countries to choose — if US allies remain in the semiconductor business with China, they’ll be hit by sanctions. This is sold as security policy, but with some US companies given a temporary licence to continue to do business in China it looks very much like crude protectionist industrial polic

Author: William Reinsch, CSIS December 2022 highlighted how much US trade policy has changed in recent years. It is tempting to blame the changes on former US president Donald Trump, whose protectionist views were strongly held and clearly stated. Many observers have been surprised by the Biden administration’s continuation of many Trump policies, albeit with different rhetoric, which culminated in the December rejection of two World Trade Organization (WTO) decisions that went against the United States. The change is due to several developments in the global economy that have been underway for some time. The first is the confluence of trade and national security. US public opinion has shifted markedly against China over the past decade and China is now viewed as both an economic and security threat. This perception, combined with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has made it difficult to have a conversation about trade without also discussing its impact on US national security. Much

Author: Michael Kugelman, Wilson Centre For much of 2022, Pakistani politics were in a state of severe crisis, exacerbating concurrent economic, humanitarian and security challenges. All in all, 2022 was a nightmare year for Pakistan. The origin of the political crisis was a falling out between two close allies, former prime minister Imran Khan and former army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa. After Khan became prime minister in 2018, he enjoyed a close relationship with Bajwa, who, at the time, held the most powerful political post in a country with a long legacy of military rule and influence. Their relationship began to go south at the end of 2021 when the two disagreed on the process to appoint a new spy chief. Other factors — from Khan’s anti-West rhetoric to his appointment of a political ally as chief minister Punjab — contributed to growing tensions between Khan and the army in early 2022. As Khan’s relations with Bajwa suffered and Pakistan’s debt-ridden economy grew increasingl

Author: Rommel Banlaoi, Philippine Society for Intelligence and Security Studies During the 2023 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on 16–20 January 2023, Philippine President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr declared his foreign policy of not choosing sides amid the growing major power rivalry between the United States and China. He stressed, ‘I don’t work for Beijing, I don’t work for Washington DC, I work for the Philippines…to promote [its] national interests’. When Marcos Jr took his oath of office on 30 July 2022, he had already announced a foreign policy that echoed the approach of his predecessor, former president Rodrigo Duterte, of being ‘friendly to all and [an] enemy to none’. This policy aims to advance Philippine national interests by avoiding armed conflicts, pursuing cooperation and promoting international peace and security amid rivalry between the United States and China. In his inaugural speech, Marcos Jr set the tone of his foreign policy.

Author: Jiao Wang, University of Melbourne The Chinese economy had yet another extraordinary year in 2022. After strong growth of 4.8 per cent in Q1, the economy grew by only 0.4 per cent in Q2. This was due largely to lockdowns under the zero-COVID policy. The economy showed signs of recovery in Q3 with growth reaching 3.9 per cent, but economic activity indicators in manufacturing and services point to a pessimistic outlook for the fourth quarter. The most significant challenge facing Chinese policymakers in 2022 was the continued implementation of the zero-COVID policy . After successfully suppressing the spread of COVID-19 in 2020, the Chinese government remained vigilant toward its containment. This became the zero-COVID policy in August 2021. In 2022, the more contagious Omicron variant resulted in frequent COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns in many Chinese cities. While the zero-COVID policy was successful in containing the spread of the virus, it became increasingly diffic

Author: Chang Yee Kwan, National Chengchi University Several major developments marked Singapore’s socio-political landscape in 2022. The government’s annual budget affirmed a staged increase in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 7 per cent to 9 per cent over 2023 and 2024, along with other income and wealth tax increases — highlighting increased social spending needs amid an ageing population. The budget also indicated optimism for a robust economic recovery, with limited extensions to enterprise and income support schemes introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. It introduced new schemes to encourage skills retraining and upgrading and reduced household transfers at a fiscal deficit of 0.5 per cent of GDP. The issue of renewal and succession in the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) was given some finality when Finance Minister Lawrence Wong was selected to head the party’s fourth generation (or 4G) leadership team in April, putting him in line to be the next prime minis

Author: Joshy M Paul, CAPS In his November 2022 visit to Moscow, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stated that ‘India will continue buying Russian oil as it is advantageous for the country’. Buying Russian oil is both economically and strategically advantageous for India. Russian oil comes at a discounted price, which benefits India as it imports 85 per cent of the oil it consumes. India’s oil purchases also help steady the Russian economy amid Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. India sees Russia as a ‘steady and time-tested partner’ and welcomes a multipolar global order that includes Russia. This position is contrary to many Western countries that want to see Russia defeated. When Western sanctions began crippling the Russian economy in April, Moscow offered discounted oil to India at as much as US$35 per barrel on pre-war prices. Russia also initially agreed to resuscitate the Cold War-era ‘rupee–rouble’ trade mechanism, which would help it by

Author: Renaud Egreteau, City University of Hong Kong Three decades on from the nationwide uprising in Myanmar in 1988 , the country has been shaken by another whirlwind of contention against military rule. Yet this time it has widened into a revolutionary uproar, which has not abated since the army seized control — again — in February 2021. Almost two years after General Min Aung Hlaing’s coup d’état shut down a decade of democratic experiments , the opposition to, and resentment against, the new junta is yet to dwindle away. The peaceful — even joyful — popular protests that filled Myanmar’s urban and rural areas after the army seized government in early 2021 were quickly superseded by armed resistance against the new military government. In stark contrast with the aftermath of the 1988 coup, the resistance has withstood some of the most ruthless counterinsurgency operations ever conducted by the military, especially over the course of 2022. The People’s Defence Forces (PDF) an

Author: Lev Nachman, National Chengchi University It is difficult to characterise Taiwan’s past year as good or bad. Taiwan now receives more international attention and support from the global community than ever before. In 2022, a record number of foreign government delegates visited Taiwan and there was outspoken support for Taiwan’s democracy. Taiwan appears to be finally getting the attention it has long deserved. But uncertainty in the Taiwan Strait is at an all-time high. Those advocating for pro-Taiwan policies have achieved largely mixed results, despite their best efforts. Taiwan is now in a strong but increasingly complicated position. In the first half of 2022, Taiwan’s politics focussed on pandemic management, including dealing with the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and slowly rolling back COVID-19 social restrictions. Taiwan removed policies like mandatory quarantine and limits on international arrivals. Taiwan is now open and eagerly welcoming back visitors. Taiwan’s

Author: Anna Hayes, JCU As a United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC) member state, China has a responsibility to promote and protect human rights globally. Yet through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has used economic coercion, inducement, harassment and manipulation to undermine the international human rights framework. This poses a serious threat to the effectiveness of the HRC. Beijing prioritises ‘ people-centred development ’ over universally recognised human rights. But China’s high-modernist development at home involves human rights violations that have disempowering impacts on marginalised peoples. This is evident in the Tibet Autonomous Region and in the unfolding genocide in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Focussing on XUAR, calls for a UN investigation into allegations of mass human rights violations in the region were first raised in 2018. But action was delayed by Beijing’s unwillingness to allow entry and then by COVID-19. These delay