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Author: Tamas Meszaros, Keio University Protectionist trade policies and the lack of an economic agenda for East and Southeast Asia have become central themes in critiques of US policy towards the region and its approach to managing US–China ‘strategic competition’. According to these accounts, US protectionism undermines its economic draw in East Asia — and the political leverage stemming from it — at a time when it has already been eroded by rising reliance on Chinese trade, investment and regional institutions such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Instead, the United States should employ open economic diplomacy, return to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and allow for greater market access for exporters from the region. From the US perspective, limiting economic openness towards China is necessary to protect its industrial base, lessen its import reliance in critical sectors and mitigate the potenti

Author: Shin Kawashima, University of Tokyo In December 2022, the Japanese government released three major security papers — the National Security Strategy , the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Plan . Each of these documents are revisions of earlier versions. The government made several key changes in light of Japan’s present security environment. The most notable changes made in the documents are threefold. First, language related to China has shifted. Earlier language expressed ‘concern’ about China’s activities but new language states that they have ‘become a matter of serious concern for Japan and the international community, and present an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge’. Second, the documents reaffirm Japan’s commitment to enacting the ‘minimum necessary measures for self-defen[c]e’. Such measures include a call for Japan to possess the ability to counterstrike against enemy bases. Third, the documents note that Japan’s defence budget w

Author: Jagannath Panda, Institute for Security and Development Policy In the past decade, global geopolitical transitions have gathered momentum. This is largely due to the emergence of the Indo-Pacific as the global centre of gravity. Obituaries of the US-led liberal international order may be exaggerated, but the shift towards multipolarity is in motion. The primary reason for this has been the continued rise of a belligerent China and the consequent strategic complications. They include the growing US–China hegemonic tussle and the geopolitical compulsions of other powers. Russia’s war in Ukraine has hastened the transition. US treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific have castigated Russia, but China and India have remained non-committal. Russia and China proclaimed the emergence of a ‘new multipolar order’ in a February 2022 joint statement at the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summits. Major and middle powers are al

Author: Editorial Board, ANU China has a new Premier. Former Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang has taken the number two spot in China from Li Keqiang, who retired after two terms even as his boss, President Xi Jinping, is delaying his own departure. At a press conference, the new premier cautiously suggested that President Xi would not be the only one working longer than expected: ‘“careful studies” would be made about raising the retirement age for some, perhaps all, Chinese workers’. The news that China’s population shrank this year for the first time since the 1950s on some reckonings presages an end to the country’s economic modernisation. Without a young and rapidly growing workforce, the impetus to economic growth and modernisation could peter out, some contend. With an ageing population, a smaller proportion of the workforce has to cover for those not engaged in productive employment and, by simple arithmetic, that drags down average per capita output. A young and rapidly g

Author: Peter McDonald, ANU China’s population fell in 2022 and will continue to do so throughout the 21st century, according to the United Nations Population Division’s 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects. The data shows a sharp fall in China’s fertility rate from 1.81 births per woman in 2017 to 1.16 in 2021. This trend is based on data supplied by the Chinese government, indicating China’s belated acknowledgement that the country’s fertility rate is very low. The UN projects that China’s fertility will rise very slowly and evenly from its low point in 2021 to reach 1.48 births per woman by 2100. This seems an unlikely scenario based on the experience of fertility trends of Chinese populations in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore and, importantly, in China’s largest cities. Among these populations, fertility has fallen even further and remained low for many years. When a country’s annual fertility rate falls rapidly to a very low level, it is often because women of younger

Author: Joseph Yu-shek Cheng, Institute for Security and Development Policy At the beginning of 2023 Hong Kong followed mainland China as it dramatically relaxed COVID-19 related travel restrictions. This considerably improved the territory’s economic mood. The tourism industry and retail trade are expected to be immediate beneficiaries of the change. The Hang Seng Index — an indicator of Hong Kong’s market performance — stayed above the 21,500 mark in the week before the Chinese New Year, a substantial rebound from its low of below 15,000 in 2022. Even the real estate market promised a little optimism, anticipating buyers from mainland China. Government statistics show that Hong Kong’s real GDP contracted by 3.5 per cent in 2022, and in January 2023 a Bloomberg survey predicted a growth rate of 3.3 per cent in 2023. There is still concern that COVID-19 will continue to spread in mainland China and Hong Kong because of the relaxation of social restrictions. The business communit

Author: Zhongmei Wang, Shanghai Institute for International Studies According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China’s GDP grew by only 3 per cent in 2022, compared with 8.4 per cent in 2021, a decline that left growth well short of expectations. In December 2022 exports fell by 9.9 per cent year-on-year and imports fell by 7.5 per cent, the third consecutive month registering negative growth. What is more noteworthy is that the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the whole of 2022 hovered at around 50, with most months below the line. China’s population also shrank for the first time in 60 years. The number of new retirees in China will exceed 40 million between 2021–25, an average annual increase of more than 8 million people. With a net decrease of 35 million people, China’s working-age population will decrease on average by about 7 million during that period, much faster than in 2016–20. Despite these headwinds, China’s macroeconomic policy shifted gears at

Authors: Dwinanda Ardhi Swasono, KCL and Nopriyanto Hady Suhanda, University of Bristol The Indonesian Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, believes that Indonesia’s economy will continue to recover and be safe from recession in 2023. According to the National Statistics Agency, Indonesia’s economic growth in 2022 was 5.31 per cent, surpassing the 5.2 per cent target. The growth was largely driven by strong domestic consumption — with an increase of 4.48 per cent — and international trade, which recorded a trade surplus over 31 consecutive months and a 14.93 per cent growth in exports. Indonesia’s robust performance indicates that economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic were successful . One factor which played a role in Indonesia’s success is a rising middle class with purchasing power. Middle class consumption has supported Indonesia’s economy for a long time, including during the pandemic. According to the World Bank, people with daily expenditures between US$

Author: William H Overholt, Harvard Kennedy School China’s incredibly successful economic development brings two predicaments, one domestic and one foreign. Domestically, rapid development quickly makes the economy and society more complex. An agricultural economy with basic industries suddenly has thousands of interconnected industries, a complicated technology sector and a highly differentiated services sector. A complex economy brings with it a complex society. People who were satisfied by having enough to eat now want different things. This complex economy is much more difficult to manage centrally and hierarchically. Among all the Asian miracle economies, this emergence of social complexity leads inevitably to a crisis of success. Big government-supported companies get into financial difficulties. Government experiences a financial squeeze. Demonstrations of people affected by change rise. Businesses challenge government policies. Such crises happened in South Korea, Taiwan an

Author: Michelle I Jongenelis, The University of Melbourne In November 2022, Australia’s Minister for Health Mark Butler announced plans to introduce new legislation featuring a raft of tobacco control measures. The ‘Reignite the Fight Against Tobacco Addiction’ reform package includes eleven measures that will see warning labels on individual cigarettes; standardisation of the size of tobacco packets and products; new requirements for pack and pouch sizes to make roll-your-own tobacco less affordable and appealing; and the closure of loopholes that have allowed the tobacco industry to promote and market its products. These reforms were welcomed by the public health community. They are long overdue and have the potential to bring down smoking rates. But the fight isn’t just against tobacco and nicotine addiction. It is also against an industry that works to maintain the profits of its shareholders by keeping people addicted to a product that is known to kill them. The tobacco indu