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In 2023, the Philippines faced economic challenges stemming from global headwinds, largely due to global geopolitical tensions and the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. These challenges included inflationary pressures , trade bottlenecks and the Philippine peso’s depreciation against the US dollar . Despite these obstacles, the Philippine economy demonstrated remarkable resilience. Key indicators included robust domestic demand, a substantial recovery in the labour market and a stable external position backed by strong international currency reserves and manageable external debt. But inflation remained a concern, exceeding the government’s target and prompting a tightening of monetary policy .  Price anomalies are likely to have especially impacted the poor. While inflation eased slightly, reaching 4.7 per cent in July 2023, it still exceeded the government’s target of 2–4 per cent. While the Philippine economy has exhibited remarkable resilience amid the complex and chal

Hong Kong’s economy enjoyed a cyclical rebound in 2023. But wounds from COVID-19 policies, external headwinds from decelerating Chinese growth and high interest rates have spoiled the party. With on-and-off multi-year recessions, Hong Kong’s economy is struggling, falling short of its pre-pandemic GDP levels. These cracks reflect structural economic and geopolitical challenges. A rebound in consumption is behind the recovery in 2023, but structural pressure is hindering optimism. This is not only about the slow return of visitors, but also changes in consumer preferences. Chinese tourists, forming 80 per cent of total visitors, now seek more unique experiences beyond shopping. Against the backdrop of elevated mortgage rates and a strong Hong Kong dollar — which is pegged to the United States Dollar — domestic residents have prioritised outbound tourism and weekend trips to Shenzhen over local spending. The dwindling financial and real estate markets are also bleeding wounds. In

If 2022 ranked as Sri Lanka’s worst-ever economic year, 2023 was relatively stable. The government, headed by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, negotiated with creditors and secured an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The  EFF program  made available  US$670 million  as part of a four-year US$3 billion loan. The Asian Development Bank loaned US$200 million in December 2023 and the World Bank released an additional  US$250 million . Following six quarters of negative growth, the  economy grew  by 1.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. Inflation was at 3.4 per cent in November 2023, compared to 73.7 per cent in September 2022. Increased tourism and remittances raised foreign reserves to  around US$5 billion . GDP growth, which was -7.8 per cent in 2022 and -3.0 per cent in 2023, is  projected to grow  to 1.7 per cent in 2024. While per capita income stood at  US$4388 in 2017 , projections indicate a decrease to  US$3280 in 2023 . Th

In 2023, Thailand experienced significant political changes, but the economy remained moribund. In May, elections for the 500 seats in the House of Representatives produced an unexpected victory for the reformist Move Forward Party with 151 seats, but not a parliamentary majority. In second place with 141 seats was the populist Pheu Thai Party. Its leadership includes Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was then in exile. The Move Forward Party’s electoral success, based heavily on its support among younger Thai voters, surprised most observers because its reform-oriented agenda potentially threatens the position of the country’s elite. Manoeuvring within the unelected 250-member senate blocked the Move Forward Party from forming government. A coalition led by the Pheu Thai Party, which includes parties representing the outgoing military-backed government, was able to form a majority government. Srettha Thavisin, a real estate tycoon a

Author: Keith Barney, ANU Laos had the feeling of a nation moving ever closer to an economic reckoning in 2023, even though the outcome is likely to be ambiguous and protracted. While according to official statistics, Laos narrowly avoided an outright recession during the depths of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the sparkle of the resource-driven boom years in Laos dimmed further in 2023. The key problem is debt — both sovereign and state-owned enterprise debt — and lots of it. Total public and publicly guaranteed debt, including government arrears and swap lines, reached approximately US$15.9 billion in 2023, equivalent to 125 per cent of GDP. The interrelated ills of high inflation and further currency weakening made external repayments ever more difficult. As approximately half of all external debt is owned to China, once again it was only thanks to debt rescheduling by Chinese banks (US$2 billion worth since 2020) that the Lao government avoided a full default . A series of te

Once known for its vibrant civil society and political rights, Hong Kong moved toward illiberal authoritarianism in 2023. This trend began with the introduction of the National Security Law by the Chinese government in 2020, which has led to the arrest of at least 284 people.  Electoral changes have also contributed to the decline of democracy in Hong Kong. In 2023, 47 democrats were trialled for holding an unofficial primary for the Legislative Council election in 2020. Many of these detainees have been in custody since January 2021. The government asserted that the democrats’ plan to gain a majority in the legislature and veto government bills was part of a conspiracy to commit subversion  under the national security legislation .  These cases have highlighted the paradoxical nature of elections in Hong Kong, where the government can remain unelected but alternate political parties can only aim for opposition status, not electoral success. This episode has also revealed the fund

China entered 2023 emerging from one sea of troubles, only to find itself embroiled in another. The lifting of COVID-19-related restrictions in November 2022 as a result of widespread protests saw the country largely return to normal by January 2023.  Against the expectations of many, the draconian lockdowns of the previous two years were quickly lifted. Despite almost 100 million confirmed cases and 121,000 deaths by December 2023, China  avoided a huge surge  that threatened to overwhelm its health system by delivering over three billion vaccinations.  Still, China experienced long-term problems with its economy which went through a harsh period of trying to return to post-pandemic normality. Though the International Monetary Fund estimated a 5.4 per cent GDP growth  for 2023, its 2024 predictions are gloomier.  Youth unemployment stood at  over 20 per cent , double the rate of five previous years. The housing market continued to cause worry, with the developer Evergrande  carr

Following a strong recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, Malaysia’s economic growth decelerated from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to approximately 4 per cent in 2023. The economy was supported by robust domestic demand and improved labour market conditions, but weakness in the global economy adversely affected Malaysia’s heavily export-oriented economy. A coalition government established in November 2022 under the leadership of  Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim alleviated political uncertainty, helping to make progress towards implementing structural reforms for the medium and long term. Challenges still remain, such as  growing ethnic polarisation . To facilitate Malaysia’s transition to high-income country status, the current government’s agenda emphasises advancing  structural reforms  to enhance labour productivity. Efforts are being made to pursue inclusive growth, specifically by raising the standard of living for low-income households. The initiative, known as ‘ Ekonomi Madani: Empowe

A glimmer of hope for the stabilisation of China–US relations sparked in 2023. Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden met in Bali on 14 November 2022. They agreed that the two countries should re-establish contact and dialogue to improve the management of this important but increasingly troubled relationship. Several developments contributed to the China–US agreement. The Republican control of the House of Representatives following the US mid-term elections made it impossible for Biden to pass legislation through the anti-China US Congress. Accidentally, it also provided him with greater flexibility to adjust his China policy as he no longer needed the votes of the congressmen. The 20th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party ushered in new leadership. As China was going through some serious economic difficulties, the new leadership’s top priority is to secure the renewal of economic growth. In doing so, China needed a friendly international environ

With New Zealand parliamentary elections held every three years, what was predictable was that an election would be held before the end of 2023. What was unexpected was that the governing Labour Party’s leader, Jacinda Ardern — in power since October 2017, victorious at two successive general elections — would not be leading the party in a quest for a third electoral mandate. Echoing her predecessor, the National Party’s John Key, Ardern announced to the media in January that she would be stepping down, observing that she had ‘ nothing left in the tank ’, the same language used by Key in December 2016 when he likewise surprised the country with a decision to leave office. While Key was able to bestow office on his Minister of Finance, Bill English, a capacity to transfer popularity and a gift for ‘connecting’ with ‘ordinary New Zealanders’ was beyond his powers. Ardern’s departure was followed by the Labour Party’s parliamentary caucus electing (unopposed) Chris Hipkins, taking of