Today Trends

Author: Alexey Muraviev, Curtin University The attempted armed mutiny in Russia on 23–24 June 2023 by the Wagner private military company, led by Russia’s controversial oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, is continuing to generate shockwaves domestically and internationally. While the coup has triggered debates about the survivability of Vladimir Putin’s regime, some preliminary conclusions can also be drawn about what the mutiny means more broadly for Asia. Two principal issues need to be considered — what the future of the Wagner Group is and the implications of its attempted mutiny for Moscow’s international standing in Asia. Formally established in 2014, the Wagner Group gained a reputation for being the world’s most effective but lethal private security contractors, specialising in missions abroad in direct support of the Russian state or its foreign clients. Initially comprising ex-active service personnel, the Wagner Group was active in Syria and parts of Africa, where it establish

Author: Yunchen Tian, SMU In early June 2023, the Japanese Diet approved a set of controversial revisions to the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act. Among other changes, it authorises the deportation of asylum seekers whose applications have been rejected twice. Ostensibly, this is intended to close a ‘loophole’ in which migrants repeatedly apply for asylum and work using the temporary employment permit granted while their cases are under review. But the changes were decried by the political opposition, academics and civil society actors for opening the door to deporting innocent people back to almost certain harm. The Immigration Services Agency has promised to increase the transparency of standards and criteria for asylum-seekers. But the new policy only further entrenches a highly opaque, arbitrary and largely unforgiving asylum system that resists international norms and robust protections in favour of case-by-case discretions. Applicants face near-impossible

Author: Wang Xueying, Shanghai Institute for Science of Science Even with the most critical eye, China’s Ministry of Science and Technology deserves top marks for its achievements. According to the Nature Index’s annual list , Chinese authors ranked first for the proportion of papers published in leading natural science journals in 2022, surpassing the United States for the first time. The latest report issued by the World Intellectual Property Organization also indicates that China made the most Patent Cooperation Treaty applications globally in 2022, followed by the United States. But China still has reasons to be less than fully satisfied with the Ministry of Science and Technology. The country has become increasingly frustrated by the United States’ technology sanctions, particularly regarding advanced chips and lithography systems. Unlike the trade war, China lacks equivalent retaliatory capabilities in this technology war initiated by the United States. Though China has att

Author: Julieta Heduvan, University of Salamanca Paraguay’s April 2023 presidential elections set the country’s course for the next five years and reaffirmed popular support for a status quo that has prevailed since the country’s return to democracy in 1989. The Colorado Party once again dominated, with President-elect Santiago Pena defeating opposition leader Efrain Alegre’s party by more than 15 points. Voters expressed their desire for continuity above all else and this extends to Paraguay’s foreign policy, certain points of which have remained unchanged over time. This includes the guiding principle of state sovereignty — so that Paraguay can ensure its own survival as a small landlocked country neighbouring two regional powers, Brazil and Argentina. Asuncion also defends its position in the world through participation in multilateral organisations, regional integration and by maintaining relations with strategic partners. These include Brazil, Argentina, the Southern Common Ma

Author: Yasuo Takao, Curtin University After the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, radioactive water has been generated daily inside the plant. But even after the disaster, voters were still less concerned about nuclear energy than other major issues such as employment. In April 2021, as public concern around nuclear energy was limited, the Japanese government decided to release the treated water into the ocean when it was deemed safe to do so. The Kishida administration is returning to its policy of promoting nuclear power and the ocean release plan appears to be part of that strategy. Since 2021, at the request of the Japanese government, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been conducting safety assessments on the plan to dilute the accumulated treated water at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. In July 2023, the IAEA published a final report stating that ‘the proposed plan complies with international safety standards’. IAEA Director-General Rafael

Authors: Mengdi Yue and Christoph Nedopil, Fudan University Many emerging Asian economies require billions of development finance to meet climate and economic growth targets. Developed countries have repeatedly committed to supporting the green transition but they have consistently fallen short of expectations. Developed countries committed to mobilising US$100 billion per year by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries but fell well short of expectations. Indonesia, for example, requires about US$281 billion of funding from 2018 to 2030 — or about US$22 billion annually — to achieve its Nationally Determined Contributions and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43.20 per cent with international support . Several Asian economies, including Indonesia and Vietnam, have been negotiating a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). JETP Indonesia includes US$10 billion in public sector pledges from International Partners Group members and other actors such as the Europea

Author: Editorial Board, ANU The emblems of the economic legacy Indonesian President Joko Widodo will leave after he departs office in October 2024 might not be the new capital city now being built in the forests of East Kalimantan, nor the China-backed high-speed rail link between Jakarta and Bandung. Instead, ‘Jokowinomics’ might be most powerfully symbolised by the string of metal smelters and battery factories springing up as a consequence of his program of ‘downstreaming’ — or  hilirisasi , as it’s known in Indonesian — the legal framework for which was set under the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono but has largely been implemented by Jokowi. After a number of false starts over the years, the government has issued a series of regulations banning or taxing the export of key minerals as mandated by a 2009 mining law that marked a significant shift towards a ‘resource nationalism’. Aided by a boom in demand for inputs for batteries used in electric vehicles — especially ni

Author: Liam Gammon, ANU You have to give credit to Indonesian President Joko Widodo for his commitment to the old cliche that Javanese politicians like to communicate their intentions through symbols and hints. With presidential elections six months away ‘Jokowi’ has painstakingly avoided an explicit endorsement of any candidate. Yet it’s become the worst-kept secret in Jakarta that the President increasingly sees advantage in having his defence minister, Prabowo Subianto, succeed him in 2024. The aura of being Jokowi’s favoured successor matters because he approaches his last year in office with his approval ratings just above 80 per cent, an all-time high. Benign economic conditions have helped a lot. Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.2 per cent from July 2022 to July 2023, with inflation at just 3 per cent over the same period. Corruption, informality and inequality still weigh on Indonesia’s economic potential, but for the average voter, the Widodo-era economy has expanded economic

Author: Andrew B Kennedy, ANU High-tech decoupling between the United States and China is deepening. While Chinese controls on high-tech trade and investment are nothing new, US restrictions are increasingly striking. In late 2022, the US government introduced new measures to limit China’s ability to access advanced computing chips, develop and maintain supercomputers, and manufacture advanced semiconductors. The US government has now announced plans to screen US investments in Chinese entities in several high-tech sectors. While decoupling reduces some risks, it also generates new ones. Overseas restrictions incentivise Chinese firms to cooperate with Beijing’s techno-nationalist projects . The same restrictions mean that foreign firms face fewer opportunities to profit and collaborate in China. It is also unclear how far US allies will accompany Washington as it travels down the decoupling road. The United States and its partners need to carefully limit decoupling, while inve