Today Trends

Author: Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, RSIS 2021 marked continued efforts by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to address the problems emerging from COVID-19 and pursue post-pandemic recovery. Some of the year’s deliverables were noteworthy, including the Strategic and Holistic Initiative to Link ASEAN Responses to Emergencies and Disasters (ASEAN SHIELD) announced in the Bandar Seri Begawan Declaration in June 2021. Cutting across the three pillars of the ASEAN Community (Political-Security, Economic and Socio-Cultural), ASEAN SHIELD outlined a holistic approach to responding to emergencies and disasters. A ‘Post-COVID-19 Recovery Plan for ASEAN Tourism’ is also being devised to help the region safely reopen the tourism sector, while also undergirding the implementation of existing frameworks like the ASEAN Tourism Strategic Plan 2016–2025. The Plan helps ASEAN pursue economic integration as part of the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework — itself a facet of the

Author: Editorial Board, ANU It says a lot about Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s extraordinary mastery over Indonesian politics that year in, year out analyses of what’s driving domestic developments in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy all lead back to the priorities and interests of its president. Even amid a once-in-a-generation crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic, the president’s interests are still the primary locomotive of Indonesian political developments, concludes Greg Fealy in this week’s lead article . ‘Jokowi is determined to avoid being a lame-duck president in his second term. The delays and disruption that COVID-19 has wrought on his ambitious development agenda have intensified his resolve to maximise his authority and limit sources of resistance’, says Fealy. These sources of resistance have been located within the Indonesian political elite, in the form of formerly opposition parties that the administration has co-opted into the government coalition, as well as in civil soc

Author: Greg Fealy, ANU The past year, the seventh year of Joko Widodo’s presidency, has been notable for two trends: the further entrenching of the president’s political position and the continuing reversal of democratic and human rights reforms. Jokowi is determined to avoid being a lame-duck president in his second term. The delays and disruption that COVID-19 has wrought on his ambitious development agenda have intensified his resolve to maximise his authority and limit sources of resistance. Jokowi has achieved this by enlarging and solidifying his ruling coalition, which added an eighth party, giving it a sweeping majority of 82 per cent of seats in the national parliament and leaving just two opposition parties. Accommodating all the coalition parties and their demands for a share of power has led Jokowi to greatly expand the number of deputy ministers. Parties are seeking not just influence over policies, but also access to resources and patronage opportunities for their su

Author: Yasuo Takao, Curtin University The number of foreign residents living in Japan has dramatically increased in the past decade, marking a change for a population traditionally perceived as ‘homogenous’. One local municipality’s debate on civic participation for its foreign residents recently sparked a nation-wide backlash from conservatives and nationalists. The inflow of foreign residents into Japan increased from 287,100 in 2010 to 592,000 in 2019 — the fourth largest inflow in the OECD. As of October 2021, there were 2.8 million residents of foreign nationality registered in the country. The debate on how to integrate these new residents into Japanese society is ongoing. By the end of 2021, 42 of Japan’s 1718 municipalities (excluding Tokyo’s Special Wards) had passed public ordinances establishing permanent local referendum systems and granted foreign residents voting rights in them. Zushi in Kanagawa prefecture and Toyonaka in Osaka prefecture even permitted foreign

Author: Shakthi De Silva, Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies Sri Lanka teeters on the edge of a grim economic precipice, entering 2022 with foreign currency reserves sufficient only for a single month of imports. Domestic inflation rose to a decade-high record in 2021 following a surge in food prices triggered by import restrictions, a significant drop in the Sri Lankan rupee value and the government’s decision to print more money .  Sri Lanka is saddled with annual foreign debt settlements of US$4.5 billion for the foreseeable future . Notions of an investment friendly hub are satirised by the reality on the ground, with people standing in long queues waiting for daily essentials like milk powder and gas cylinders for cooking. These developments come amid an economic slowdown brought about by COVID-19, poor fiscal and monetary policies, and an abrupt decision to ban the importation of chemical fertiliser which gravely impacted local harvests. The decision was mad

Author: David Dapice, Harvard University Vietnam was an economic star in 2020, as it managed to control the COVID-19 pandemic while maintaining one of the highest growth rates in the world. While GDP growth was only about 3 per cent, about half of its normal 6–7 per cent growth rate, most countries faced falling levels of output. But the government — perhaps confident that its test, track and quarantine measures could continue to control the virus — was slow in procuring vaccines. When the Delta variant proved to be more transmissible and not so easily managed, there was a scramble to procure vaccines. This effort became more important after Omicron emerged. As a result, 2021 was a tough year as shutdowns made life difficult and GDP slowed to 2.6 per cent. Increasing supplies of vaccines eventually allowed more normal activity in the last few months of 2021. Vietnam’s GDP shrank 6 per cent in the third quarter before bouncing back in the fourth quarter. The trade surplus, a source

Author: Ariell Ahearn, University of Oxford With over 1000 licenses issued across the country, a diverse range of mineral extraction operations are transforming Mongolia’s rural cultural landscape. The Gobi region is crowded with both mega mines and smaller-scale operations. The Gobi also has excellent conditions for renewable energy and is poised to be a site for significant investment in this industry. Solar and wind farms are already starting to pop up in Omnogobi and Dornogovi provinces reflecting Mongolia’s commitment to reduce its reliance on coal power under the State Policy on Energy 2015-2030. Yet in the face of these major investments and developments, discussions of traditional mobile pastoralist land tenure rights have been muted. While the Mongolian government has some legal provisions to protect the environment, such as the 2012 Law on Environmental Impact Assessment , it lacks robust policy on resettlement and social safeguarding and adequate protections against for

Author: Suman Bery, Centre for Policy Research In late January, the IMF released its update on the outlook for the world economy. It downgraded its estimate for global growth in 2022 to 4.4 per cent from 4.9 per cent last October. Against this background, India was a striking outlier. It was not just the country with the highest anticipated growth in 2022, 9.0 per cent for India’s April 2022-March 2023 (FY23) financial year. It was also the only major economy where projected growth was raised, and that by a sizable 0.5 percentage point. Equally striking is that the Fund raised its 2023 India forecast, also by 0.5 percentage points, to 7.1%, also the highest growth of any G20 economy. The Fund’s forecast was made before Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented India’s federal budget for the 2023 financial year in a speech to Parliament on 1 February. The minister’s speech is the tip of a very large iceberg. The budget speech provides the government’s political narrative — but

Author: Kathryn Sweet, Canberra Despite closed international borders and rolling lockdowns due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic moved closer to its dreams of developmentalist modernity. A new five-year domestic political cycle was initiated, and international cooperation with old and new friends accompanied key development breakthroughs for Laos. 2021 kicked off with the selection of a new Central Committee at the 11th Party Congress of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party in January, followed by February elections for the National Assembly and Provincial Peoples’ Assemblies, and the announcement of a new government line-up in March. The members of these respective bodies are tasked with progressing Laos’ development in the coming years. The elections saw a high turnover of members within the National Assembly and Provincial Peoples’ Assemblies, with an increase in younger and more educated members. There was a notable reduction in fe

Author: Sthanu R Nair, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode Despite constituting only 16.38 per cent of gross domestic product, agriculture plays an important role in India’s economic development. The sector employs over half of India’s workforce, feeds its huge population, generates demand for industrial goods, supplies raw materials, and earns foreign exchange. But farmers still face several challenges in improving their income and living standards.  Historically, India’s policy responses were rooted in the ideology of government support and intervention . The private sector was not provided adequate opportunities to develop the agriculture sector. This is despite the transformation achieved in the industrial and services sectors due to greater private sector participation after the opening up of the Indian economy in 1991.   Efforts made over the years by India’s federal government to introduce market forces into the agriculture sector through regulatory reforms hav