Today Trends

Author: Diego Maiorano, University of Naples In March 2020, the Indian government announced one of the harshest COVID-19 lockdowns in the world with only four hours’ notice. The lockdown left tens of millions of workers without a job, savings or a roof over their heads. In May–June 2021, the country then went through a devastating wave of COVID-19, which, according to The Economist , resulted in 2.4 million deaths and was largely attributed to government mismanagement. Unemployment — already at its highest level in decades before the pandemic — rose sharply, particularly in higher productivity sectors like manufacturing. Agriculture, where wages are significantly lower and just above subsistence levels, absorbed millions of distressed workers. Protests by farmers engulfed the north of the country for most of 2021 , while inflation, as in much of the world, eroded real wages sharply. Overall, India’s economy has barely grown over the past two years. Economists estimate that a

Author: Amresh Lavan Gunasingham, NTU On 22 March 2022, Sri Lankan lawmakers approved a range of reforms to the country’s controversial anti-terror law. Activist groups, some Western governments and international bodies continue to press the current government to improve its human rights record amid a worsening domestic economic crisis. The Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) was modified to allow suspects to challenge their detention in court and to expedite hearings to reduce the length of pre-trial detention periods. Rights groups allege that the law has been used over the past four decades to arbitrarily arrest and detain individuals for years without due process and to extract confessions through torture. Sri Lankan authorities have denied these claims. First enacted in 1979, successive administrations dominated by the Sinhalese majority have used the law to arrest minority Tamils linked to the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) group during the country’s pro

Author: Gaurab Shumsher Thapa, Nepal Forum of International Relations Studies Nepal occupies a crucial geostrategic location in South Asia. It is sandwiched between powerful and competing neighbours in India and China, outstripping the Himalayan nation in size, population, economy and military might. Yet it is one of the few countries that has remained independent throughout history. Maintaining that independence is now just that much more challenging. Geopolitical realities necessitate maintaining a fine balance in Nepal’s relations with its immediate neighbours. Relations with India are deeply embedded in historical, cultural, socio-economic, religious and familial ties. The open border arrangement between the two countries eases the flow of people and goods. But politically, India and Nepal have seen ups and downs. Although Nepal and China also share historic relations, the bilateral relations are more focused on political and economic issues rather than people-to-people exchang

Author: Gulshan Sachdeva, JNU While addressing the first meeting of the India–Central Asia Summit in January, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi  emphasised  that the region is ‘central to India’s vision of an integrated and stable extended neighbourhood’. The Central Asian leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met with Modi virtually due to COVID-19, but the event signified yet another step forward in India’s approach to the region. In November 2021, India held a meeting with the national security advisors of the five Central Asian nations. Then in December, their respective foreign ministers underlined  their ‘civilisational, cultural, trade and people-to-people linkages’ with India at the third meeting of the India–Central Asia Dialogue. To intensify contacts, the Indian President Ram Nath Kovind has just concluded his visit to Turkmenistan, where he met newly instated President Serdar Berdimuhamedow. These high-level interactions with Ce

Author: Gregory Trencher, Kyoto University Japan’s early moves to spur the adoption of fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have lost momentum. Encouraged by Toyota and Honda releasing the world’s first mass-produced models in 2015, Japan reinforced its ambitious vision of a ‘hydrogen society’ and media hype boomed. But the transition is proving unexpectedly difficult. If FCEVs are to meet historical expectations and help electrify road transport, bold measures are needed to jumpstart the market. As battery electric vehicles rapidly become the default vehicle electrification technology, Japan is still betting on hydrogen FCEVs. Rapid technological progress in batteries has eroded the range and refuelling advantages of FCEVs, but Japan’s enthusiasm for hydrogen is still justified by several merits. FCEVs do not require land-intensive charging lots — a single hydrogen station can support 1,000 vehicles, a boon in densely populated Asian countries. Smaller batteries mean that FCEVs re

Author: Asha Sundaram, University of Auckland India’s exit in November 2019 from negotiations on the world’s largest trade deal — the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — was a significant disappointment for proponents of regional economic integration. Those advocating India’s exit cited New Delhi’s increased trade deficits with countries it has free trade agreements (FTAs) with, as evidence of what RCEP-led economic integration would bring. Others had reservations about the lack of safeguards allowing India to respond to import surges, particularly from China, the threat of import competition in agriculture, and inadequate market access for services exports, including greater mobility of people to deliver them. Rising border tensions with China were argued to justify a guarded approach to foreign investment in sensitive sectors such as defence, communication and energy. Prominent economists argued strongly that India’s exit was not in its best interests. By sacrif

Author: Wrenn Yennie Lindgren, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs The war in Ukraine is a game changer not only disrupting financial markets and human migration patterns but also the global energy landscape . As European countries announce their plans to phase out and divert energy imports from Russia, the question of how to make up the difference looms large. One solution is to increase energy independence through a greater shift to more renewables.  In East Asia, Japan also finds itself in a heightened energy dilemma. A resource poor island nation with one of the lowest energy self-sufficiency rates in the OECD of 11.2 per cent in 2020, Japan is particularly vulnerable to shocks in global energy markets. With EU states’ energy policies in flux after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, it is uncertain if Japanese policymakers and voters are committed to shifting away from nuclear power and redoubling efforts to reduce fossil fuel usage. After nearly a decade

Author: Siwage Dharma Negara, ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute Russia’s war against Ukraine has caused world oil prices to surge to record levels. Days after the invasion, oil prices surged from US$92 to US$120 per barrel, the highest level since 2014 . Nobody knows how long the conflict will last or how high prices will go. But if the war escalates, there will be significant ramifications on the global energy supply. Countries must prepare themselves for a prolonged energy crisis. This includes Indonesia, a net oil importer. In 2021, the country experienced a trade deficit in the oil and gas sector amounting to US$13.3 billion . National fuel consumption is around 1.4–1.5 million barrels per day, while its oil production capacity is less than 700,000 barrels per day. Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani said the spike in crude oil prices has put pressure on the state budget . This is because the price hike has increased the cost of energy subsidies at a time when the government is

Author: Vincent Brussee, MERICS Although China’s central leadership sees its social credit system as a key feature of the country’s domestic governance system, the implementation of the initiative continues to be a headache. The system has successfully helped curb fraudulent behavior on the part of citizens and companies, but in the process has also created space for overreach and abuse. A look beyond Western headlines about a technological dystopia reveals the system continues to challenge its inventors in Beijing. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the social credit system. Its birthday provides a good opportunity to remind the world that it is more akin to a glorified online file system than the mass-surveillance system it is commonly (mis)represented as being. A policy umbrella rather than an integrated whole, its most important goal was to clamp down on malpractices in China’s market economy and improve trust among economic actors. Continuing a longstanding political tra