Today Trends

Author: Neil DeVotta, Wake Forest University When Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa banned chemical fertiliser, insecticides and herbicides in May 2021, protesters blamed the government rather than the President or his brother, former prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. But this time, spurred by the island’s worst ever economic crisis, protests have turned against Rajapaksa rule. The original fertiliser ban was dictated by a balance of payments crisis . This crisis was caused by a bloated government service, inefficient state enterprises, a massive security force that was not demobilised after the civil war ended in 2009, loss of crucial revenue from a reduction of various taxes in 2019  and COVID-19’s disruption of remittances and tourism. Non-concessionary Chinese-funded white elephant infrastructure projects have also fuelled this balance of payments crisis and China’s aversion to renegotiating loans may make tackling the crisis harder.  The debts owed total around

Author: Sheryn Lee, Swedish Defence University On the 45th anniversary of official US–ASEAN ties, US President Joe Biden hosted the leaders of Southeast Asian nations in May 2022 for a historic summit at the White House. The meeting’s aim was to signal a ‘ new era ’ in relations by reassuring ASEAN of its centrality at the ‘heart’ of Biden’s Asia strategy. Washington reinforced its commitment to a ‘meaningful, substantive and mutually beneficial’ ASEAN–US Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Some observers praised the meeting as a historic return of US steadfastness in diplomacy. But despite the high level of political symbolism, the summit also displayed the structural and normative differences that will continue to inhibit US–ASEAN relations . The Biden administration aimed to demonstrate its ‘enduring commitment’ to ASEAN relations with a US$150 million package of initiatives to promote cooperation in areas such as pandemic recovery, digitisation and infrastructure. The inten

Author: Daniel Sneider, Stanford University The goals of US President Joe Biden’s recent trip to Japan and South Korea were simple — to shore up the alliance system and make clear to allies that the United States is not going to abandon Asia because of the war in Europe. The well-planned visit displayed a three-pronged strategy. Traditional alliances with Japan, South Korea and Australia as well as a de facto alliance with Taiwan remain at the centre of US strategy in Asia. On one side is the Quad, the four-party security dialogue that has become the core of multilateral security cooperation in the region. The third component emerged during the trip itself in the form of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework ( IPEF ) — a loose economic association designed to compensate for the retreat from free trade agreements. Most commentators marked the trip a success, except for Biden’s murky signalling on Taiwan. But it was hardly a sure thing. The ability of the Biden administration to make t

Author: Editorial Board, ANU The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency in 2016 forced many to revise their assumptions about the nexus between the United States’ internal socio-political landscape and its role in international affairs. Trump’s first presidential term exposed the potential of an elite and popular constituency for isolationism, protectionism and xenophobia that was until then known to be influential at the margins, but thought not capable of capturing control of the US political system. One Trump presidential term is a misfortune; two looks like carelessness. But the idea that the upcoming midterm elections could mark the first milestone in a return to power for Trump and his movement has to be taken seriously. The background factors in Trump’s 2016 win are still present: accelerating economic change, growing divides between Americans on the basis of culture, class and geography, and widespread disenchantment with political elites that in some pockets of the

Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Peterson Institute for International Economics Former US president Donald Trump looms heavily over the US political landscape. His celebrity candidates, JD Vance in Ohio and Dr Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, won their respective primary battles to become Republican Senate candidates in November 2022. Both are likely to win seats. Trump’s grudge candidate, David Perdue, lost in the primary to sitting Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. But on balance Trump’s endorsements, alongside the retirement of several Republican officeholders who disagreed with his policies, strengthened his control over the party. Record inflation, abetted by massive stimulus in 2020 and 2021 and super-easy monetary policy through to February 2022, has practically eliminated Democratic party hopes of retaining control of Congress in the November 2022 election. Biden’s valiant support of Ukraine is overtaking memories of the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. An exceptionally tight lab

Author: Maholopa Laveil, UPNG Successive Papua New Guinean (PNG) governments have adopted different policy stances towards the resource sector, but its benefits to citizens remain limited. As former prime minister Peter O’Neill and the incumbent James Marape emerge as favourites for the upcoming July election, the incoming government must ensure that more gains from the resource sector are channelled into development. PNG’s resource sector grew from 11.8 per cent in 1980 to 23.5 per cent of GDP in 2020. Throughout the 1980s, the resource sector grew steadily with only a slight decline in 1989 due to the closure of the Panguna gold mine. It grew again throughout the 1990s with the opening of more gold mines, and the Kutubu oil field. The 2000s saw some volatility but posted generally higher growth than the 1990s at an average of 21.1 per cent of GDP. When liquefied natural gas (LNG) production commenced in 2014, the resource share of the economy grew to a high of 27.9 per cent

Deasy Simandjuntak, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute After months of speculation, President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo announced in April that Indonesia’s 2024 elections would not be postponed . Speculations of postponement had circulated after the Indonesian parliament’s controversial plans to extend the presidential tenure, which have since been doused. With this announcement, it is almost certain — almost , as anything could still happen in Indonesian politics — that the next elections will take place in February 2024. These will be simultaneous parliamentary, senate and presidential elections but, as in 2019, the latter will likely be most important for voters. Although 2024 is still two years away, speculation has begun on who might replace Jokowi. Surveys indicate that the president is still popular, considered successful in infrastructure development and COVID-19 pandemic economic recovery. Normally incumbents would try to field a candidate who would continue their legacy, but Jokow

Authors: Alice Dawkins and Luke Hurst, Lydekker Human rights allegations have moved large portions of China’s renewables sector off the table for investors bound by economic, social and governance (ESG) frameworks. Polysilicon — a crucial component in the production of solar panels — has fallen under a particularly dark reputational cloud. But a new document from a high-level coalition of Chinese ministries indicates that the human element that made polysilicon production so problematic will be removed from the supply chain by 2025. In 2020, China produced 396,000 tons of polysilicon, accounting for almost 76 per cent of global production. China’s main hub for polysilicon production is Xinjiang, the historically Muslim-majority western province. Of the 10 or so polysilicon companies in China that produce more than 10,000 tons per year, 4 have production based or planned in Xinjiang. Mountains of carefully accumulated evidence point to the Chinese government’s large-scale human righ

Authors: Kevin Zhang and Tham Siew Yean, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute Malaysia’s low-wage workers ostensibly saw a big boost to their salaries in May 2022 when Prime Minister Ismail Sabri announced that the country’s minimum wage would rise by as much as 36 per cent. While the minimum wage is revised every two years, the recent hike marks the largest jump since it was first introduced in 2013. The new monthly salary of RM1,500 (A$475) replaces the previous two-tier wage floor of RM1,200 (A$380) for cities or municipal districts and RM1,100 (A$348) for rural districts. Granular income data reveals that low-wage workers in certain states are set to reap significant income gains from the wage hike while those elsewhere stand to gain little. The benefits of the wage hike are highly skewed and unevenly distributed, with indications that the move may have electoral consequences. In Malaysia, workers are divided into three skill categories . Skilled workers are managers, professionals, te

Authors: Deasy Pane, Bappenas and Krisna Gupta, CIPS The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — the world’s largest trade deal — came into effect in early 2022. Its 15 member countries account for 30 per cent of the world’s population, 29 per cent of global GDP, 27 percent of global trade and 29 per cent of global foreign direct investment. RCEP is predicted to have a trade impact of nearly US$42 billion and transform the region into the centre of global trade. The existing trade interdependency between RCEP countries will also promote the development of more complex regional value chains in ‘Factory Asia’ . Given the potential economic impacts of the mega trade agreement, many have questioned its quality . Although RCEP aims to consolidate existing ASEAN+1 FTAs, it has added complexity to the region’s existing overlapping bilateral and regional FTAs, while providing less aggressive tariff cuts than other modern trade agreements . RCEP’s ‘ ASEAN Way ’ is defined b