Today Trends

Author: Heidi Dahles, University of Tasmania The many unfinished buildings — most owned by Chinese investors — lining the streets of the coastal town of Sihanoukville may be symptomatic of the Cambodian economy entering 2023. Cambodia’s economic rebound in 2022, with GDP growth of 4.8 per cent , has been slower than many had hoped. For 2023, the Ministry of Economy and Finance has pegged Cambodia’s economic growth at 6.6 per cent, an ambition endorsed by major international financial institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and International Monetary Fund . But the World Bank projects a more conservative 5.2 per cent GDP growth, considering the gloomy outlook for the global economy. As a small, export-orientated economy, Cambodia faces major challenges as world trade growth slows. A major obstacle to achieving the government’s GDP growth goal may be the tourism sector, which has failed to recover from the collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Dubbed the ‘ green gold ’

Author: Ronald Tundang, Chinese University of Hong Kong ASEAN member states should consider using economic pressure to influence the behaviour of the ruling military junta in Myanmar. Myanmar is one of the least developed countries in ASEAN, which has created an asymmetric relationship between Myanmar and other ASEAN member states. This gap creates the opportunity for ‘weaponised interdependence’, through which stronger ASEAN member states can leverage their position to influence less developed members. States that rely on the importation of essential goods are prone to shocks and manipulation. Myanmar’s most significant imports are refined petroleum and palm oil. Myanmar imports refined petroleum primarily from Singapore followed by Malaysia and Thailand, while its palm oil comes from Indonesia and Malaysia. Myanmar has been hit hard by high fuel prices and power cuts, prompting its military leadership to import refined petroleum oil for use in its power plants. Gasoline prices

Authors: Wenhui Mao and Ipchita Bharali, Duke University China has translated its economic development into improved social welfare. China’s quest for Universal Health Coverage (UHC) for all while lifting 800 million people out of poverty is an example. Its experience in healthcare development provides transferrable lessons for developing countries in making progress towards UHC. The first steps involved institution building. The Labor Security System (LSS) and the Rural Cooperative Medical System (RCMS) — both healthcare schemes — operated in urban and rural areas, respectively, for decades. But open market reforms, the transformation of the economy and urbanisation accelerated their collapse . Their successors, the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance scheme and the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (NRCMS) were established in 1998 and 2003, respectively, to target urban employees in formal employment and rural residents. A third scheme, the Urban Resident Basic Medical

Authors: Hal Hill, ANU and Dionisius Narjoko, ERIA Jakarta The year 2022 got off to a relatively optimistic start for Indonesia. To be sure, Covid had left serious scars — the Economist’s central estimate for ‘excess deaths’ through to December 2022 was about 740,000 fatalities — while the lost education and employment opportunities, especially for poorer communities, will be long-lasting. But Indonesia’s economic contraction and the resultant increase in poverty were less than those of most comparable middle-income economies. From late 2021 the country’s economic momentum had been regained. The year also ended well for Indonesia. It received well-deserved praise for its adroit hosting of the November G20 summit in Bali and for keeping alive the flickering spirit of multilateral cooperation and collaboration in an otherwise deeply divided world. But for much of 2022 Indonesian policymakers had to grapple with unprecedented, and largely unanticipated, global economic and geostrategi

Author: Shankaran Nambiar, Malaysian Institute of Economic Research Rebounding from the pandemic-induced economic shock, the Malaysian economy gathered momentum in 2022 as its growth rate surpassed expectations quarter after quarter. The first quarter of 2022 saw a growth rate of 5 per cent year-on-year. This was a remarkable rate compared to the 3.9 per cent that was achieved in the fourth quarter of 2021. The pace continued through 2022. The second quarter registered a growth rate of 8.9 per cent, while a growth rate of 14.2 per cent was achieved in the third quarter. The high growth rates indicated that the Malaysian economy was recovering from the smothering effects of the pandemic. The most significant sign of recovery came from an improvement in private consumption. By the third quarter of 2022 consumption had risen by 15 per cent year-on-year. The labour market also showed signs of improvement as the year progressed. Unemployment figures moderated over the course of the yea

Author: Soyoung Kim, Nanyang Technological University The General Association of Korean Residents in Japan — abbreviated as Chongryon in Korean — has long served the interests of the North Korean government in Japan under the supervision of the 225th Bureau of the United Front Department of the Workers’ Party of Korea. It is the only conduit between the governments of North Korea and Japan as there is no North Korean embassy in Japan. Despite its reduced membership size and financial capacity compared to its prime, Chongryon remains relevant to bilateral political and diplomatic relations . This is especially the case given the heightened possibility of communication between Japan and North Korea after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recent overtures towards meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un unconditionally. Chongryon’s continued importance in the bilateral relationship depends on whether it can maintain the confidence of the North Korean government to represent it

Author: Siwage Dharma Negara, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute As 2022 ended the world economy was in no better shape than when it began. While countries were still struggling to bounce back from the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine shook global economic and political stability. China’s economy remains uncertain due to prolonged zero-COVID policies. Climate change also poses increased risks. Under these conditions, Indonesia hosted the G20 Summit in Bali in mid-November. Amid risk of failure, the summit resulted in a G20 leaders’ communique to pursue multilateral cooperation on global economic challenges. The G20 success sets an important lesson for Indonesia’s 2023 ASEAN Chairmanship and contributes to strengthening regional economic cooperation and stability. Indonesia seems quite resilient in facing the ongoing adverse global situation. According to the World Bank’s latest projection, its economy is expected to grow by 5

Author: Editorial Board, ANU So dominant was the focus on the creep of Cold War dynamics into the geopolitical landscape in Asia in 2022 that the horrors of a hot war have been overshadowed. In Myanmar, the popular uprising against the 2021 military coup has become a brutal civil war in which no party currently seems to have the upper hand. No area of the country is now untouched by armed conflict: whereas insurgencies were once concentrated in the minority-dominated periphery regions, now the Tatmadaw (military) faces guerrilla warfare from opponents in the Bamar–Buddhist heartland in central and southern Myanmar. Anti-military sentiment in these regions was an ingredient in the National League for Democracy (NLD)’s landslide victory in the November 2020 elections, whose results precipitated the coup and imprisonment of its leader Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. The dynamics of Myanmar’s conflict are complex: there’s not been perfect congruence between the strategies of the

Author: Nicholas Farrelly Myanmar’s abject deterioration since the February 2021 military coup accelerated through 2022, with more violence , retribution and pain spread across the rapidly impoverishing country of 55 million people. The military regime spent the year trying to reinforce its positions on the battlefield and its claims to institutional legitimacy. It is failing on both fronts. For the generals in Naypyidaw, the current battles are, first and foremost, about personal survival. They have invested heavily in security precautions, but many officers tasked with frontline combat and policing roles have not fared well . Since the coup, thousands of the regime’s troops and officials have died at the hands of resistance forces. The army struggles to replenish its ranks. The limited life expectancy of junior soldiers only saps any lingering morale. Opposition forces have grown in number, size and sophistication under the umbrella leadership of the National Unity Government

Author: Yuhan Zhang, UC Berkeley The alarm bells of the climate crisis have been ringing for years. There is an increasing consensus among climate scientists that it is indispensable to hold the increase in the global average temperature within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But as the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters, the United States and China have not cooperated to commit themselves to sufficiently meeting this climate goal. China’s climate policy is consistent with a global warming of 3 degrees Celsius and the US nationally determined contribution is consistent with a 2 degrees Celsius temperature target . Yet at the 27th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, both countries pointed fingers at each other for not acting fast enough. Owing to technological, domestic political and systemic factors, great power cooperation to attain the 1.5 degrees Celsius target is dead. While necessary, existing clean technologies a