Today Trends

Author: Editorial Board, ANU Around the time of Indonesia’s 2019 presidential elections, there was great concern about the damage that polarisation over issues of religious politics was doing to Indonesia’s democracy and its social fabric. Then, once the voting was over, Indonesia seemed to revert to its cooperative, moderate mean. The defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto was dealt into President Joko Widodo’s government as defence minister and cut his ties to Islamists as the Widodo government began a crackdown on the Islamist opposition. But despite the relative political placidity of Widodo’s second term, it would be premature to conclude that polarisation was a flash in the pan. Ahead of the February 2024 presidential election, polls show that the two strongest candidates are Widodo’s ally, the governor of Central Java province, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta who has found his political groove as the candidate of more conservativ

Author: Dan Slater, University of Michigan Indonesia and Malaysia have always been similar enough to make direct comparisons promising, but different enough to make direct comparisons problematic. Ever since Indonesia democratised and Malaysia did not after the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis, divergence has been the clearer pattern. But in the wake of Malaysia’s November 2022 elections, convergence is becoming the bigger story. Without denying the countless differences that differentiate Indonesia from Malaysia, it’s timely to consider the parallels now emerging in the two neighbours’ political trajectories. Dramatic divergence is giving way to creeping convergence. Both countries have travelled parallel paths from authoritarian hegemony towards polarising pluralism. From the late 1960s until the late 1990s, Indonesia and Malaysia were both dominated by their respective authoritarian ruling elites. When crisis struck Indonesia in 1998, violent anti-government demonstrations pushed th

Author: Toshiro Nishizawa, University of Tokyo While rumours of former Lao prime minister Phankham Viphavanh’s premature resignation surfaced in mid-December 2022, it was only on 3 January 2023 that local media reported that Phankham had submitted a letter of resignation to President Thongloun Sisoulith, with the National Assembly having elected a new prime minister, Sonexay Siphandone, to succeed him. Despite his unsuccessful handling of economic woes, some thought Phankham would not resign until the end of 2023, when his two-year timeframe for achieving his key policy agenda  had passed. Presuming the early reshuffle would be interpreted as an admission of party leadership fault, Phankham resigned earlier than expected — either due to serious policy concerns or other political considerations. Sonexay Siphandone’s premiership was nonetheless widely anticipated within Laos. His father, Khamtay Siphandone, served for 14 years as the leader of the ruling Lao People’s Revolutionary

Authors: Siyu Qian, China and Li Mingjiang, RSIS China has had a rollercoaster experience in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic after the relaxation of the COVID-zero policy. While the situation now has gradually returned to normal, the first few weeks since China reopened on 7 December 2022 were extremely difficult for millions of people in the country. Many cities were crowded by people waiting outside pharmacies to buy cold and flu medicines. Even more people spent hours every day searching for medicines online. Medicines were often out of stock at local pharmacies and online prices have soared to an astonishing level. There was chaos in numerous Chinese hospitals in the early days of reopening. Many medical service providers, who reportedly had not been informed of the hasty reopening, fell prey to the first wave of infections. Patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms could not receive timely medical treatment either because ambulance services were overburdened or there were not

Author: Hanh Minh Duong, Georgetown University As the need for climate action has intensified, green finance has become a popular tool for developing countries that wish to achieve economic returns while meeting the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. While Vietnam has attempted to cash in, it has a long way to go before it can be labelled a sustainability leader. Green bonds are a green financing instrument. They are a debt security that fund climate or environmental-related public infrastructure spending or private capital expenditure. But investors have raised concerns about ‘greenwashing’ — where companies make false or exaggerated statements about being green to receive investment. This can lead to financial losses and decrease investor trust. Vietnam should establish a national framework, or ‘taxonomy’, to classify green bonds based on the pre-existing ASEAN and EU regulatory approaches to limit greenwashing. Vietnam is committed to sustainable development and

Author: Claude Barfield, American Enterprise Institute Under President Joe Biden, the United States has stepped up its campaign to build out and expand its geostrategic position in the Indo-Pacific. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recent White House visit was a significant payoff for this strategy. The visit was preceded by Japan’s announcements in December 2022 of a new security strategy , including the doubling of defence spending to 2 per cent of Japan’s GDP. The two leaders also agreed to beef up Japan’s missile strike capabilities. Over the past two years, the Biden administration has moved to strengthen the Quad and progress the AUKUS agreement dialogue with a view to countering a more assertive China in the Indo-Pacific. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin labelled the Indo-Pacific as the ‘heart’ of US ‘grand strategy’ and vowed to defend the region — including Taiwan — from coercion ‘without flinching’. Though not perfect, Biden’s security policy for the region

Author: Shareen Joshi, Georgetown University Ninety per cent of Indian workers earn their livelihoods in the informal sector, lacking job security, pensions, paid leave and benefits. Precise estimates are unknown , but as many as 40–100 million of these workers are estimated to migrated for employment to India’s cities each year. In March 2020, millions left the cities and returned to the Indian countryside, reeling from lost employment, accommodation and poverty during India’s COVID-19 lockdowns. Indian policymakers responded to the challenges faced by these migrants with new welfare schemes , including access to free food grains , affordable rental housing and opportunities for training. In 2023, India’s economic growth appears to be resuming. GDP growth is projected to be 7 per cent over the 2022–23 fiscal year. The International Monetary Fund refers to India as a ‘ bright spot ’ in the world economy. Urban migrant-receiving sectors such as construction and transportation appear

Authors: Novia Xu and Nadya Daulay, CSIS The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is the manifestation of the European Union’s (EU) ambitions to lead in global climate policy and the reduction of carbon leakage. Though the design of CBAM is acclaimed as fully compliant with international trade regulations, concerns over its impacts persist, especially for developing countries like Indonesia. Indonesia provides an interesting example as bilateral trade between Indonesia and the EU has increased by approximately 15 per cent in the last decade, with a widening trade balance surplus for Indonesia. The ongoing negotiation for the Indonesia–EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU–CEPA) would also be Indonesia’s most comprehensive and ambitious one-on-one Free Trade Agreement. CBAM works as a mechanism to balance the carbon price paid for EU products covered by the EU Emissions Trading System and the price paid for imported commodities. Businesses that import certain

Author: Jamie Reilly, University of Sydney For the people of North Korea, 2022 was another difficult year . But as 2023 dawns, glimmers of hope are emerging as the country’s foreign trade with China and Russia begins to resume. Food security remains the greatest challenge facing the North Korean people. The UN’s World Food Program estimates that 10.7 million people — over 40 per cent of the population — are undernourished. In March 2022, the UN’s Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) warned that ‘the most vulnerable segments of the population may be facing hunger and starvation’. But all aid from the World Food Program ceased by April 2021 , while bilateral aid from South Korea has collapsed . Aside from an unknown amount of Chinese aid, North Korea neither requested nor received humanitarian assistance in 2022. While reliable information has been limited due to COVID-19-related restrictions imposed by the DPRK, scholarly analys

Author: Brendan Clift, University of Melbourne Hong Kong’s latest legal development has clear parallels with the first post-handover constitutional crisis in 1999 . In both instances, the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region was unhappy with a decision of the region’s Court of Final Appeal and asked Beijing to step in to provide an authoritative interpretation of the law. In both instances Beijing did so, effectively overruling the Hong Kong court. In the latest such ruling, the effect is that pro-democracy former newspaper tycoon Jimmy Lai loses the chance to be represented by his British barrister, Tim Owen, in his upcoming national security trial. It is not uncommon for overseas counsel to appear in Hong Kong with the court’s permission and several courts had given the all-clear. But it was not to be. Lai, a prominent critic of the Chinese Communist Party and press freedom award recipient , is already in prison. His popular Apple Daily and Next Digital ma