Today Trends

Author: Loro Horta, Dili In early March 2023, General Laura Richardson, head of the United States Southern Command, told a US congressional hearing that Chinese actions in South America posed a threat to US safety . According to General Richardson, China is on a relentless march to replace the United States as the leader in the region. While China’s presence in the region has grown substantially in the past decade, it is unlikely that China will replace the United States as the dominant political, economic and military power in Latin America for the foreseeable future. On the economic front, China has made inroads into South America and the Caribbean, a region where US power once went unchallenged. Starting in the late 1990s, Chinese interest in South America and the Caribbean began to grow. In order to sustain its unprecedented economic growth China began to search the globe for oil and other raw materials. In 2000, Chinese trade with the region totalled US$12 billion, reaching US

Author: Editorial Board, ANU Three and a half years ago the world trading system confronted the threat of its rules becoming unenforceable as the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s Appellate Body seized up amid US objections to its jurisprudence. This wasn’t merely some arcane bureaucratic spat. The Appellate Body is a cornerstone of the WTO, itself the culmination of a decades-long process of building a rules-based international trading system that stands as one of the greatest achievements of international politics. In its absence, the WTO is unable to meaningfully conclude trade disputes between its members, with many disputes effectively appealed ‘into the void’. The multilateral trading system, grounded first in the 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and, from 1995, the WTO, gave countries confidence in opening up their economies and relying on international markets to secure energy and strategic raw material imports that, in the 1930s and before, were more comm

Author: Arata Kuno, Asia University On 10 March 2023, Japan decided to join the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement (MPIA), a plurilateral framework birthed by the European Union and Canada, that aims to supplement the WTO’s dispute settlement system that US vetos have made presently dysfunctional. The Japanese decision came despite growing calls in Japan to prioritise economic security over free trade.   The WTO’s dispute settlement system, established in 1995, adopts a two-tier system with a panel and an Appellate Body. There have been more than 600 cases dealt under this WTO regime. The WTO’s Appellate Body has been non-functional since December 2019 due to the US vetoes of the appointment of judges, with the United States claiming Appellate Body overreach.    Some WTO members resorted to ‘ appeals into the void ’ , where losing parties at the panel stage appealed to the Appellate Body, knowing its judge-less status would necessarily halt the dispute settl

Author: Kaush Arha, Purdue University Japan and India’s national interests call for elevating a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) as the bedrock for global peace, prosperity and a rules-based order. They should use their prerogative as hosts at the upcoming G7 and G20 Summits to cement a FOIP as the fulcrum of a free and open world. Over the last half of the 20th century, international bodies often referred to a meeting of minds along the two sides of the North Atlantic. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar observed that Europe tends to think its problems are the world’s problems while the world’s problems are not its own. In the 21st century, the fulcrum of the free world rests not in Europe but in the Indo-Pacific. During his March 2023 visit to India, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida articulated Japan’s new plan for a FOIP. As flagbearer of the Global South, India would do well to do the same. The two nations may herald the Indo-Pacific era by directly respondi

Author: Faizal Bin Yahya, NUS The digital banking ecosystem among Southeast Asia’s approximately 687 million inhabitants is diverse. Some ASEAN members, including the more developed ASEAN-5 economies and Brunei, have well-consolidated financial services sectors, while others — especially in their rural areas — have large unbanked populations. Traditional banks and fintech start-ups have increasingly turned to digital banking to solve this problem, but various issues demand greater regulatory oversight. Digital banks have proliferated across Southeast Asia and financial authorities in Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines are seeking to incentivise financial innovation by supporting fintech growth without compromising financial stability. Some of these initiatives include rules for digital wallets, peer-to-peer lending, application programming interfaces, licensing frameworks for digital banks and regulatory sandboxes. Digital banking adoption is influenced by numerous factors in

Authors: David Camroux and Earl Wang, CERI Sciences Po French President Emmanuel Macron triggered a series of geopolitical debates after returning from his state visit to China on 9 April 2023. Strong criticism was provoked by his remarks that Europe should reinforce its strategic autonomy and avoid becoming either a ‘vassal’ of the United States, or a follower which adapts to an ‘American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction’ over Taiwan. Beijing naturally grasped this opportunity to applaud President Macron’s vision by denouncing the United States as often ‘coercing others’. President Macron clarified his take on Taiwan three days later, emphasising support for the status quo in the Taiwan Strait which he said has been an unchanged ‘French and European position’. The caustic reaction to President Macron’s remarks was due to the timing. While his remarks were being made, Chinese military exercises had been launched around Taiwan following Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen’s meet

Author: Paul Chambers, Naresuan University On May 14, 2023, Thailand will hold a general election. According to most surveys, the most popular party is once again Pheu Thai — the third incarnation (following two party dissolutions) of a party founded by former populist prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Both Shinawatra and his sister, former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, were ousted in military coups in 2006 and 2014 respectively. Yet the greatest danger for Thai democracy is that the 2023 electoral result might be swept aside by a judicial coup. Thailand has experienced 14 successful coups carried out by the military, which enjoys almost complete legal impunity. In 2023, Thai democracy remains fundamentally flawed . Indeed, an ’iron triangle’ comprising members of the Election Commission, which oversees elections, judges of the Constitutional Court, which interprets constitutional law, and senators, who can participate in selecting the prime minister, were appointed by the

Author: Daniel Sneider, Stanford University Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Seoul on 7–8 May 2023 represents a triumph of geopolitics over the search for historical justice. Both South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Kishida are now driven by the ominous international environment, led by threats to the international order from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China. Kishida remained cautious when responding to South Korean calls for an apology and compensation for the victims of Japan’s colonial and wartime forced labour system. These issues were compounded by later trade and security tensions. But he acted with urgency in restoring normalcy to South Korea–Japan relations and tightening cooperation on a wide range of shared concerns. These concerns spanned from regional security in the face of North Korean missile and nuclear advances to supply chain resiliency and controlling the flow of advanced electronic technology to China. Both Japan and South Korea are e

Author: Benny Teh Cheng Guan, Universiti Sains Malaysia On 20 March 2023, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida chose to unveil his new plan for a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) in India. Kishida’s decision symbolises Japan’s policy continuity and unwavering commitment to the FOIP. Tokyo is not reformulating but enhancing its existing notion set forth by former prime minister Shinzo Abe. Abe first mooted his idea of visualising the merging of the Indian and Pacific oceans to establish a bond of like-minded countries 15 years ago in India. This basic idea eventually led to the political construction of an ‘Indo-Pacific’ concept and the realisation of the FOIP . It also aims to reassure a wary India that has emphasised the need for ‘inclusivity’ as well as ‘freedom’ and ‘openness’ multiple times. Inclusivity means the inclusion of China . On this, Kishida made clear in his speech, ‘we do not exclude anyone, we do not create camps and we do not impose values’. The statement was

Authors: Alexander M Hynd, UNSW and Daniel Connolly, HUFS China’s November 2013 declaration of an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea was rebuked by the United States and its Northeast Asian allies. It was viewed as a counter-hegemonic geopolitical move for control over contested islands and as the first of multiple declarations designed to expand Beijing’s regional influence and reinforce dubious maritime sovereignty claims — particularly over the South China Sea. A decade on, Beijing appears more focused on destabilising rival states’ existing ADIZs than establishing any additional zones of its own. Taiwan’s zone faces increased Chinese violations, especially during moments of heightened tension . Japan and South Korea have also faced repeated Chinese violations of their ADIZs. These violations are regularly publicised in defence white papers , government social media accounts and news reports . Enforcing these zones has led to costly defen