Today Trends

Author: William J Jones and Douglas L Rhein, Mahidol University International College The era of Thailand’s colour-coded politics ended with Thaksin Shinawatra’s triumphant return. Under the shifting landscape of Thailand’s political system, this new chapter in Thai politics will be one of political contest between reform and maintaining the status quo. In the May 2023 Thai general election, the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first with 151 seats out of 500 and garnered over 14 million votes. Yet, its bid for the Premiership was blocked due to the presence of 250 military-appointed senators. The MFP won seats in all regions, taking the entire province of Phuket in the South and nearly all seats in Bangkok. The Pheu Thai Party of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra fell short of achieving its expected ‘landslide’ victory, coming second with nearly 11 million votes. Thailand’s six largest conservative parties collectively won 182 seats with 16 million votes . The provincia

Authors: Agung Satyadini and Khresna Satriyo, ANU Indonesia’s prudential regulator, the Financial Services Authority (OJK), is currently engaged in discussions regarding the potential classification of coal-fired power plants as ‘green’ under a planned update to its classification scheme for green investments, the Indonesian Green Taxonomy (THI). This green labelling of fossil fuel related projects has stirred controversy as it contradicts scientific evidence and indicates a significant shift in Indonesia’s Sustainable Finance Roadmap Phase II. The OJK is debating whether coal-fired power plants that supply energy to eco-friendly sectors, like electric vehicles (EV), can earn a green classification. This controversial proposition underscores the need to sync environmental policies with social progress and economic growth . At the heart of the debate over the classification is Presidential Regulation 112/2022 , which aims to speed up the use of renewable energy for electricity. Th

Author: Chris Legg, Global Infrastructure Hub Multilateralism — the willingness of sovereigns, despite different political systems and competing interests, to enter cooperative structured arrangements targeting shared challenges — is under threat. The geopolitics of an increasingly assertive and heavy-handed China and Russia’s brazen invasion of Ukraine risk eroding a key pillar of the post-WWII rules-based international order. Created in 1944, the IMF and World Bank established a model for effective multilateralism — balancing on the one hand, a shared voice for all supported by high governance standards and a commitment to consensus, and on the other, acknowledging the realities of unequal economic and political standing in relative voting shares. But this model requires periodic re-calibration to remain aligned with changing realities. On 14 June 2023, the Canadian Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister announced a halt to all government-led activities at the Asian Infrast

Authors: Alex Lo, Victoria University of Wellington and Shar Thae Hoy, Climate Action Lab Myanmar In Myanmar, state oppression and armed conflict have threatened human security and disrupted livelihoods in the aftermath of the February 2021 military coup. How these changes undermine the country’s capacity to adapt to climate change has been overlooked. Myanmar has suffered massive climate change losses, ranking as the world’s second most affected country between 2000–2019. Cyclone Nargis in May 2008 killed nearly 140,000 people, while Cyclone Mocha in May 2023, though less deadly, exposed the fragility of local communities due to declining state assistance. The United Nations’ Myanmar Information Management Unit estimated that in 2021, 21 million people in Myanmar — 40 per cent of the population — were vulnerable to climate change, environmental degradation and disaster risk. This marked a 1 per cent increase from the 2016 estimate. The 2021 analysis likely underestimates the siz

Authors: Niki Alsford, University of Central Lancashire and James Hammond, Birkbeck On 13 September 2023, a significant event occurred at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East. North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin convened for a meeting that sparked intrigue and international concern. Speculation was rife about the agenda of this meeting . Rumours circled that it revolved around a potential exchange of North Korean ammunition stockpiles for Russian assistance in developing space technology and resource aid . If substantiated, this would undoubtedly contravene numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions. While China and Russia, with their veto power at the Security Council, would likely shield North Korea from any punitive measures , it could still face sanctions from a number of countries or from the European Union. These sanctions could have wider impacts on humanitarian or scientific projects, underscoring a vital and

Author: Max Broad, IISS–Asia The Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) was passed by the European Parliament in October 2023 with 578 votes for, 24 against and 19 abstentions. Under this legislation, the European Commission will investigate potential instances of economic coercion and present its findings to the parliament. If the parliament is satisfied that coercion has occurred and fails to resolve it through diplomatic means, it may seek reparations from the offending party or implement countermeasures. This was also on the agenda at the 2023 G7 Hiroshima Summit, where member states launched the Coordination Platform on Economic Coercion (CPEC). This mechanism will facilitate information sharing and early warnings so proactive steps can be taken to counteract economic coercion threats. While Western policymakers have been contemplating this issue and states like Malaysia and Vietnam have publicly objected to economic coercion, the matter has received less attention in Southeast A

Author: Artyom Lukin, Far Eastern Federal University From 12–17 September 2023, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un made an official visit to the Russian Far East. Compared to his first trip, which took place from 24–26 April 2019, the voyage was both longer and more extensive. Kim’s itinerary left little doubt that a major focus of his visit was to promote military and technological links with Russia. Kim held a one-day summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vostochny. The Russian host gave his North Korean guest a tour of the spaceport, highlighting Russia’s main rockets, Soyuz and Angara. Kim then proceeded to an aviation centre in Komsomolsk-on-Amur where some of Russia’s most advanced warplanes are manufactured. The final leg of his tour across the Russian Far East was Vladivostok, where Kim spent two full days. He visited an airbase where he was shown an array of Russia’s fighter jets and strategic bombers. The North Korean leader was also hosted aboard a guided-

Author: David Hessen, South China Sea NewsWire The South China Sea region has long been home to tensions driven by disputes over territory and control over resources. Local policymakers should respond by reinforcing bilateral relationships along the basis of scientific cooperation. A new survey suggests a path towards de-escalation built upon nations’ shared concern for regional economic stability and environmental stewardship. Taiwan and the crisis of international stability that would be brought on by a hypothetical Chinese invasion have captured significant attention. While this attention is rightly deserved, territorial and economic disputes in the South China Sea are no less noteworthy given their potential impact on regional and global stability. This importance was reinforced in August 2023 when a Chinese Coast Guard vessel intercepted a Philippines resupply mission to one of the disputed South China Sea islands. Attempts to reduce tensions in the South China Sea should

Authors: Maria Monica Wihardja, ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute and Sharon Susan Koshy, Centre for Public Policy Research The ‘political trilemma’ spoken of by economist Dani Rodrik argues that the goals of deep economic integration, democratic politics and national sovereignty are mutually incompatible. Many countries, including India, the United States and Indonesia, are now facing this political trilemma — democratic politics is in conflict with their pursuit of economic integration. India’s presidency of the 2023 G20 New Delhi Summit was a fitting reflection of how democratic and sovereign nations need to balance their multilateral and national interests , especially in the increasing absence of smoothly functioning global governance that can manage the consequences of deep economic integration. The contradiction between nationalist and international outlooks are being framed as ‘with-us-or-against-us’ pressures, especially in the Global South. Both India and Indonesia, the 2022