Today Trends

Author: Stephen Levine, Victoria University of Wellington With New Zealand parliamentary elections held every three years, what was predictable was that an election would be held before the end of 2023. What was unexpected was that the governing Labour Party’s leader, Jacinda Ardern — in power since October 2017, victorious at two successive general elections — would not be leading the party in a quest for a third electoral mandate. Echoing her predecessor, the National Party’s John Key, Ardern announced to the media in January that she would be stepping down, observing that she had ‘ nothing left in the tank ’, the same language used by Key in December 2016 when he likewise surprised the country with a decision to leave office. While Key was able to bestow office on his Minister of Finance, Bill English, a capacity to transfer popularity and a gift for ‘connecting’ with ‘ordinary New Zealanders’ was beyond his powers. Ardern’s departure was followed by the Labour Party’s parliame

Author: Barbara Stallings, Brown University Countries in the Global South are becoming increasingly important actors on the global stage. While the term ‘Global South’ is vague — and some have argued for abolishing it — it is used here to mean the larger and richer developing nations. The demands made by the Global South have created political and economic shifts that the West will need to adapt to. These countries have become more powerful due to their economic growth. With respect to GDP in purchasing power parity-adjusted terms, India is the third largest economy globally, while Indonesia is seventh and Brazil is eighth. Meanwhile, the G7’s share of global GDP has fallen from 65 to 44 per cent over the last 50 years due in part to China’s rise but also to the rise of the Global South. The Global South is using its power by trying to exert agency in international economic and political affairs. One manifestation is the call for ‘ active non-alignment’ between the United Stat

Author: Danilo Arana Arao, UP Diliman In 2023 in the Philippines, the Marcos Jr regime continued its illusion of calm amid the suffering and repression of the poor. The situation on the ground reeks of privilege for the rich and powerful while the toiling masses struggle to survive. The year started and ended with transportation problems. The first of January saw around 56,000 passengers affected by flight delays and diversions due to a power outage. The last few days of December saw commuters affected by transport strikes in the wake of the government’s modernisation program, where close to 100,000 drivers and operators in Metro Manila alone may lose their jobs . But those in power were largely unaffected. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr went abroad 12 times this year, visiting countries like China, the United States and Japan. His travel to Beijing, the first trip for 2023, was from 3 to 5 January — two days after the air traffic issue. Even though the government claimed that his

Author: Michael Barr, Flinders University Last year was unprecedented in independent Singapore’s history. Difficulties have arisen in past years for the government, the economy, specific sections of the Singaporean populace or in terms of escalating repression, but 2023 encompassed all the above. Recovering Singapore’s reputation for clean governance will not be an easy task. In January 2023, six executives of Keppel Corp , a government linked company, were found by the US Department of Justice to have paid US$55 million in bribes to win contracts with Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. When the case reached Singapore, however, the Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau (CPIB) declined prosecuting or even identifying the culprits due to ‘lack of evidence’, issuing ‘ stern warnings ’ to the ex-Keppel executives instead. In May 2023, two cabinet ministers fended off opposition suggestions that they had received special treatment when securing leases for luxury state-owned bungalows. It

Author: Collin Koh, NTU The state visit to Beijing by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr in January 2023 did not yield the momentum for bilateral ties that his predecessor’s trip in 2017 did. Barely one month after the state visit, there was a flareup in the South China Sea (SCS) with the Chinese coastguard’s lasing of its Philippine counterpart off Second Thomas Shoal. The situation went downhill, especially after Manila publicised Beijing’s coercive behaviour . There was the floating barrier incident in the Scarborough Shoal, though the focal point has centred on the Second Thomas Shoal where the Chinese and Filipinos faced off. Chinese forces harassed the Philippine rotation and resupply missions to the outpost and fired water cannons at the latter — the first documented instance since 2021 . 2023 was eventful for SCS disputes beyond incidents between Beijing and Manila. Other Southeast Asian parties in the SCS continued business as usual. Malaysia and Vietnam conti

Author: Heidi Dahles, University of Tasmania Only days after Cambodia’s recently elected national assembly endorsed Hun Manet as the country’s new prime minister, the young leader revealed his vision for the next 25 years of economic growth and prosperity. Cambodia is aspiring to become a high-income country by 2050. To make this happen, Manet released his Pentagonal Strategy, centring on the five objectives of sustained economic growth, more and better employment, human capital development, diversification of the economy and increased competitiveness. For those who have been advocating sweeping reforms to Cambodia’s economy , the new strategic objectives comprise all the right catchwords. But it remains uncertain whether the ambitious new strategy will help Cambodia reach its targets. Despite GDP forecasts for 2023 not living up to expectations, the Cambodian government forecasts 6.6 per cent GDP growth in 2024 . The Asian Development Bank and International Monetary Fund downg

Author: Stephen Costello, George Washington University During 2023, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol sought to deepen contacts with Japan, the United States and other like-minded countries, while paying less attention to authoritarian neighbours like China, Russia and North Korea. This has resulted in warmer personal relations with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Joe Biden, and increasing frictions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean President Kim Jong Un. South Korea’s indirect transfer of artillery shells to Ukraine will negatively impact its relations with Russia. Its neglect of dialogue with North Korea, expanded military cooperation and exercises with the United States and efforts to ‘de-risk’ from China will complicate relations with Xi. Seoul’s anti-North Korea rhetoric and acts to cancel the 2018 North–South military agreement have raised tensions on the peninsula and provoked harsh rebukes from

Author: Kevin Nielsen M Agojo, City University of Hong Kong Despite mixed results in his first year in office, the promising developments in the presidency of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr should not be overlooked. His notable achievements include the signing of the New Agrarian Emancipation Act , which condoned US$1 billion of debts belonging to 610,054 beneficiaries. He also signed the Regional Specialty Centers Act , which institutionalises the creation of new specialty health centres. His administration also granted amnesty to members of various rebel groups, agreed to resume peace talks with insurgents and ordered the recalibration of the infamous National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict . The Philippine economy has also done well under Marcos. Inflation subsided from a 14-year high of 8.7 per cent in January 2023 to 3.9 per cent in December 2023 . The Philippines also saw third quarter growth of 5.9 per cent , the strongest in Southeast Asia