Today Trends

Author: Shin Kawashima, University of Tokyo At a Japan–China summit on 17 November 2022, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese President Xi Jinping met face-to-face for the first time in three years. 2022 marks the 50th anniversary of normalised diplomatic relations between Japan and China. A meeting full of smiles allowed both countries to maintain appearances and celebrate the occasion. Kishida and Xi’s meeting was important in several ways. It put bilateral relations back on track — the trajectory pursued by former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe from 2014 . Though major issues such as the Senkaku Islands dispute cannot be resolved in the short term, this improvement will allow top-level exchanges to be held regularly. In other words, it is a second normalisation of relations. In November, both a Japan–ROK summit and a China–ROK summit were held, making it possible to also realise a Japan–China–ROK trilateral summit. The Xi–Kishida meeting showed that despite te

Authors: Wayne Palmer, Bielefeld University and Nicola Piper, Queen Mary University of London In August 2022, there were 104,230 foreign workers in Indonesia. But foreign participation in Indonesia’s labour market is frequently susceptible to nationalist backlash. Such a reaction could be seen at a May Day rally in 2018 organised by the militant Indonesian Trade Union Confederation, which lent its political support to presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, who went on to garner almost 45 per cent of the popular vote. In his speech, Prabowo said : ‘There are no people in the world that want to open their doors to foreigners [in the way that we do] … The United States wants to make a wall to keep them out. In Australia, people who try to enter are discharged to remote islands. In Malaysia, our own illegal migrant workers are whipped’. Later that year the winning presidential candidate, incumbent Joko Widodo, was seemingly pressured into responding to false reports that his policy

Author: Alessandro Arduino, NUS Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing’s influence in Eurasia has been expanding. But while the reduced role of Moscow on the world stage is offering an unprecedented opportunity for Chinese advancement, it is yet to be seen if Beijing is ready to manage the growing level of uncertainty in Central Asia. According to the 2022 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) report, COVID-19’s negative effects on the social and economic fabric of the five Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — have been contained . These economies are showing strong resilience, with the EBRD expecting the region’s GDP to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2022 and 4.8 per cent in 2023. At the same time, security uncertainties weigh against Beijing expanding its economic engagement in the region. In January 2022, protests engulfed Kazakhstan and the overall security situation in South and Central Asia, which Beijing

Authors: Charles KS Wu, University of South Alabama, Lin (Kirin) Pu, Tulane University and Cathy Fang, GWU Few observers of US–Taiwan relations would have predicted the monumental events that have transpired in 2022. There was the surprise visit from House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi , President Joe Biden’s commitment to defend Taiwan with US military forces in the event of a Chinese attack and strong support for the Taiwan Policy Act (TPA) in the US Senate. US extended deterrence, which consists of security treaty commitments and military deployments designed to protect allies, was created as a distinct practice from traditional deterrence. Washington intends to provide billions of dollars in military assistance to Taiwan under the proposed TPA . In addition to building military bases and sending troops to allies, the US government seeks to invest in Taiwan’s defensive weapons capabilities indirectly and enhance the credibility of its threats through diplomacy. Given

Authors: Sehun Cheon, IDC and Joonsoo Park, KIDA Defence Expo Korea, an exhibition showcasing the latest South Korean military equipment, took place on 21–25 September 2022. The 2022 exhibition was the largest since it first opened in 2014 and welcomed senior military officers, including defence ministers, from 43 countries. This record attendance may have been a result of South Korea’s arms deal with Poland. The South Korea–Poland arms deal, signed in July 2022 and worth an estimated US$15 billion, is by far the largest military export deal in South Korea’s history. It marks a huge milestone for the South Korean defence industry and could help gather momentum for South Korea’s arms sales. Deals with Australia, Malaysia, Norway and Saudi Arabia are already in the works. This stunning achievement was not built in a day. Over the last 15 years, Seoul has implemented wide-ranging reforms to strengthen its local defence industry’s global competitiveness, investing more resources into

Author: Oliver B John, Astrolabe Global Strategy Saudi Arabia’s decision in October to spearhead a two million barrel per day cut in OPEC+ production quotas, and the harsh US response to it, is only the most recent example of the drift in Saudi–US relations. The dispute risks opening up space for China to expand its political influence in the region to the detriment of the United States and its allies. In December, President Xi Jinping visited Riyadh for the first China-Arab States summit as well as a China-GCC summit and bilateral meetings with the Saudis. Riyadh’s lavish reception for Xi was in stark contrast to the more muted reception of President Biden. Both China and Saudi Arabia used the visit to showcase the importance they attach to their deepening bilateral relationship. Given the strong security ties between Gulf Cooperation Council countries and the United States — as well as China’s ties to Iran , and its reluctance to act as a security guarantor for the region — Ch

Author: William Waqavakatoga, University of Adelaide As Fiji heads to its general election on 14 December 2022, the FijiFirst (FF) party led by 2006 coup leader and current Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama faces an uphill battle to secure a third term in power. The soaring cost of living , deteriorating infrastructure, a bungled COVID-19 response , controversy over political interference at the University of the South Pacific , and the recent conviction of well-known lawyer Richard Naidu for contempt of court have all contributed to Bainimarama’s unpopularity. FF begins from a leading position: at the 2018 election it won just over 50 per cent of votes and won 27 out of 51 seats. The Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA) won 39.9 per cent of the vote and 21 seats, and the National Federation Party won 7.4 per cent of the vote for a total of three seats. Turnout was almost 72 per cent, down from 84.6 per cent in 2014. In 2014, FF harnessed what the late Fijian academic Brij

Author: Colin I Bradford, Brookings Institution The Indonesian G20 year was like no other. The Russian war in Europe divided the G20. No G20 communiques emerged from the ministerial meetings held during the run-up to the summit in mid-November 2022. There was a moment when it seemed that the summit would only tackle low-hanging fruit. But Indonesian President Jokowi Widodo embraced the tensions rather than avoiding them. By listening to all of the G20 governments, Widodo realised that the crucial nexus was the impact of security tensions on the global economy. Both security and economic issues had to be dealt with. Realising that the fate of the international community as a singular entity was at stake, President Jokowi Widodo pushed G20 leaders in their communique to ‘reaffirm our commitment to cooperate’, and to maintain that ‘it is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability’ and that ‘the use or threat of use of nuclear

Author: Wannaphong Durongkaveroj, Ramkhamhaeng University From 1 October 2022, Thailand’s daily minimum wage has increased throughout the country by 5–8 per cent. The new daily minimum wage ranges from 328 baht (US$9.45) to 354 baht (US$10.2). This has raised concerns about the effect higher wages may have on Thailand’s economic recovery as the world continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic. Minimum wage policies have long been a controversial issue among policymakers, businesses and scholars. While they guarantee minimum income for workers, they also increase the cost of employing low-wage workers, which in some cases can increase unemployment. Empirical studies on the impact of minimum wages suggest mixed results . Negative impacts on employment have been found in developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. Analysis is more complicated for developing countries due to the size of their informal economies and substantial non-compliance

Author: Editorial Board, ANU The structural cracks in the global economy are becoming bigger and more dangerous. In October this year, the US government tightened restrictions on the export of semiconductor chips to China. The new bans are a geopolitical cudgel but, combined with legislation designed to encourage domestic semiconductor manufacturing, mark the return of protectionist industrial policy to the centre-stage of US economic policymaking. ‘With its extensive prohibition on the export of US microchip technologies to China, the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security has implemented the most comprehensive controls on semiconductor fabrication and supercomputing to date’, Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robin Baker note  in the first of our two lead essays  this week. Gary Hufbauer and Megan Hogan suggest  in the second of our leads , semiconductor ‘export controls are not likely to cripple the Chinese military. According to a  2022 RAND Corporation report , Chin