Today Trends

Author: Sujeev Shakya, Beed Management While 2022 began with modest expectations for Nepal, it was also a year of hope. The pandemic receded and lives returned to normal, while elections brought some hope, with new leaders dislodging old ones. Despite challenges in governance and politics, Nepal vaccinated nearly all of its eligible population — 95.7 per cent, one of the highest numbers in South Asia. This was possible due to responsibility being passed on to Nepal’s 753 local government units — rather than being managed at the federal level — demonstrating the role of local governments in delivering public goods. Nepal was also fortunate to have foreign governments donate vaccines and facilitate purchases and supply. In terms of Nepal’s relationship with the world, 2022 was eventful. A US$500 Millennium Challenge Corporation grant from the United States became a point of major political controversy , but was ultimately approved by Parliament. The debate also revealed a deep divi

Author: Michael Raska, NTU Cyber operations have been evolving as part of major wars and conflicts over the past three decades. Yet modern militaries have struggled to align advanced cyber capabilities with conventional military power. If militaries can fully harness the next cyber revolution in potential conflict flashpoints, there could be enormous implications for the future of warfare. The main source of strategic advantage in the next 10 years will lie in the ability of military organisations to fully integrate innovations in artificial intelligence (AI), cyber power and data science, cognitive science and robotics at all levels of military operations. This process will propel the next AI-driven revolution in military affairs (AI RMA). The AI RMA will fundamentally differ from the previous information technology or IT-RMAs, where cyber capabilities augmented but did not alter the use of force. Early signs of the AI wave are already appearing. The  Data Analytics Centre of the

Author: Saimum Parvez, VUB For Bangladesh, the two most important trends in 2022 were a strong comeback of political opposition and the country’s myriad economic challenges. These critical and interrelated trends represent a grim scenario that will likely affect Bangladesh in the coming years. In recent years, the strong economic growth of Bangladesh has been portrayed as a neoliberal success story and poster child of development. The legitimacy of the long-ruling Awami League (AL) regime came from its promises of economic growth and infrastructure development. Until 2022, the creeping authoritarianism and democratic backsliding were largely offset by narratives of development success. Despite the ruling regime’s grandiose promises, Bangladesh experienced an economic setback in 2022. Prices were hiked as inflation increased, foreign reserves were depleted and the banking sector saw unprecedented irregularities and corruption. According to the World Economic Forum , Bangladesh w

Author: Mahendra Ved, Commonwealth Journalists Association Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi has been universally revered as India’s father figure, but 2022 ended with some supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi arguing that Modi should be considered the ‘new father of the new nation’. Gandhi’s picture has been printed on the Indian rupee since 1969 but is not on the new digital currency. Critics say this is a deliberate attempt to alter the existing idea of an all-inclusive India. Debate on such issues tends to become acrimonious or even toxic. Modi, who enjoys overwhelming support, uses rhetoric that is echoed by an obliging media. NDTV was the last major television channel that was critical of the government, but it now has ‘Modi-friendly’ owners, much to the frustration of his critics. After eight years in office, Modi’s popularity remains high thanks to his proactive approach to policymaking. His party, the combative Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is seen by many as seeking to p

Author: Editorial Board, ANU India is stepping into the spotlight on the world stage this year as the host of the G20. It comes after a relatively successful year for the forum under Indonesian stewardship. Hopes are not as high for India’s presidency, though India’s behind-the-scenes role in helping with the 2022 Bali Communiqué showed deftness in global diplomacy. The main worry is that the G20 agenda in New Delhi does not yet get to the heart of the challenges facing the world economy. A global economy that is fracturing on geopolitical lines needs leadership to preserve and protect the open, liberal trading order and there is still scepticism, not ill-founded, about whether historically protectionist India has what it takes to step up on the substance of these problems. Indian trade policy has long had a protectionist bent. Even the liberalising reforms of the early 1990s – as important and beneficial as they were – were limited, and vested interests and populist domestic poli

Author: Amita Batra, JNU Global value chain-led trade has been the most significant feature of global trade in the 21st century. While the spectacular increase in trade in the first decade was largely attributed to the increasing complexity of global value chains, the slowdown since 2012 has been associated with a consolidation and restructuring of global value chains. Supply chain disruptions following the COVID-19 pandemic, aggravated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have been the defining factor in global trade in recent years. India’s participation in global trade has remained marginal over the past two decades, with a share of global merchandise exports lower than 2 per cent. India’s weak linkages into global value chains in the manufacturing sector are not just lower relative to other major regional emerging market economies but they have also consistently declined since 2013. This is true in the case of electronics and automotives , two of the most value chain-intensive s

Author: Abdul Rahman Yaacob, ANU While military deterrence and diplomacy are often cited as the two pillars of Singapore’s defence strategy, a critical yet overlooked third pillar is the importance of the city-state’s relations with major western powers. These relations have been crucial to strengthening Singapore’s military deterrence capabilities and adding weight to its diplomatic manoeuvres. For example, the bilateral relationship with the United States plays a significant role in Singapore’s security. As explained by Tim Huxley in his book Defending the Lion City , the Singapore–US security relationship resembles a quasi-alliance despite the lack of a mutual defence treaty that explicitly requires the United States to defend Singapore. Singapore is geographically small and has experienced historical antagonism with its two closest neighbours, Malaysia and Indonesia. Singapore’s political leaders have long considered close relations with Western powers as a counterweight agai

Author: Roy C Lee, CIER Volatility is perhaps the best word to describe Taiwan’s 2022. Though initial economic forecasts expected Taiwan to continue its strong growth from 2021, Taiwan’s actual annual GDP growth rate — 2.43 per cent — was nearly half of 2022’s projected 4.42 per cent. Actual growth in the fourth quarter contracted 0.86 per cent, a rare 5 per cent departure from the original forecast of a 4.94 per cent increase. One reason behind this volatility was the weakening demand in major markets, especially in the second half of 2022. After 26 months of continual growth, Taiwan’s exports started to decline in September 2022. In December , exports declined by 12.1 per cent, marking the country’s worst-performing December in 6 years. The Russian invasion of Ukraine unquestionably affected the global economy, with high inflation and supply disruptions worldwide. Other minor factors, including China’s zero-COVID restrictions and the escalation of the US–China tech war, also con

Author: Richard Herr, University of Tasmania The most important event for Fiji in 2022 was the peaceful transfer of power on Christmas Eve, 10 days after a general election saw former prime minister Frank Bainimarama’s FijiFirst party lose government. There was a year-long expectation that consequential electoral change was likely, reflected in the months of uncertainty over when the election would be called. Late changes to the electoral law to advantage the incumbent FijiFirst demonstrated the concern the government felt over Fiji’s shifting political mood. The successful registration of Sitiveni Rabuka’s People’s Alliance as a party in August 2022 was the key event in laying the foundations for the new alignment of political power emerging from Rabuka’s Christmas Eve appointment as prime minister. Offsetting this win for oppositional forces were legal challenges to possible political opponents , the most notorious being the prosecution and conviction of opposition lawyer Ric

Author: Teck Chi Wong, University of Queensland During Anwar Ibrahim’s first stint as Malaysia’s finance minister in the 1990s, Putrajaya was still under construction. After more than two decades of political struggles, including two imprisonments, Anwar now leads the country as prime minister and again as finance minister . But this time his offices are in the no-longer-new administrative capital, which he didn’t get to use two decades ago. An analogy can be drawn with the political economy system he now helms. While the state still maintains a near omnipresence in the Malaysian economy, it is a different beast from the 1990s. New Economic Policy (GLICs) are now dominant in the economy, with shareholdings in most major sectors. GLICs are a primary tool to drive national development . In 2020, they managed more than RM1.7 trillion (US$385.8 billion) worth of assets, equivalent to over 120 per cent of Malaysia’s GDP and over a quarter of the local stock market capitalisation . Thes