Today Trends

Author: Christian Oller Vicedo, Manila As recent tensions in Philippines–China relations expand from the maritime security to diplomatic domains, the contours of Philippine foreign relations under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr are becoming more apparent. President Marcos has asserted an independent foreign policy that underscores Philippine national interests . This foreign policy dismisses a Cold War mentality that pressures small powers to choose between competing major powers. It values dialogue with all relevant parties for peace and stability. But given the rising threat of major power conflict between the United States and China, can the Philippines pursue such a foreign policy for maximum security and economic gains? Marcos’s foreign policy seeks to enhance existing cooperation mechanisms with the United States , Japan and China for shared security and economic concerns. Due to China’s increasing assertiveness in the Taiwan Strait and grey-zone coercion in the Wes

Author: William Case, Nottingham University Malaysia The strains between Malaysia’s governing coalition parties, Pakatan Harapan and the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), are mounting, raising questions whether the coalition can last. It will, most likely, for neither side has any better options. But in otherwise working at cross-purposes, their unity government may not achieve much beyond completing its term. UMNO’s old guard — headed by party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi — were sure they would win when pushing for an early general election in 2022. UMNO had triumphed before in a series of state assemblies and by-elections. The old guard brimmed with victory confidence . Zahid also tightened his hold over UMNO, purging party leaders and aspiring candidates who opposed him. He aimed to shake off the deadweight of irksome coalition partners and factions. In the grip of its old guard, UMNO began campaigning. It hoped to win big and reinstitute the single-party dominance th

Author: Oleg Yanovsky, MGIMO On 31 March 2023, Russia published its new Foreign Policy Concept. Rapid growth in Asia has fuelled Russia’s drift toward the East and the pivot has now been integrated into official policy. This is a tectonic shift for Russia domestically but the material effects in Asia will be felt gradually. Russia lists global regions in order of priority in the Foreign Policy Concept. The West has been relegated to penultimate priority before the Antarctic, which signals a 180-degree flip. Moscow asserts its desire for ‘ peaceful coexistence ’ but the ball is in the West’s court. Russia’s first strategic priority after states of the former Soviet Union is the Arctic region. It is only now bringing its plans for the North Sea Route out of the cold. Russia’s moves in the North Sea will have a direct effect on logistics from China, easing its geo-economic difficulties and allowing more efficient transit of goods via Southeast Asia. The Arctic is also a confrontatio

Author: Andrew Carr, ANU Over the last 50 years, Australia has produced seven Defence White Papers and dozens of smaller reviews and updates. But however proudly governments announce new policy, Cabinets can change their mind at any time, on any part of the plan. This, as Michael Evans famously put it, is the ‘tyranny of dissonance’ in Australian strategy. It is a central challenge facing the newly-published Defence Strategic Review (DSR) , which was commissioned by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party government after its election in 2022. If the DSR is to achieve its lofty aims of securing Australia in a hostile new era and building an Australian Defence Force (ADF) fit for that purpose, the government’s willingness to be bound by this review will be essential. Most obvious is the challenge of budgeting. The 1986 Review of Australian Defence Capabilities led by Paul Dibb is held up as the gold standard of force structure reviews. It was based on a modestly growing defenc

Author: Editorial Board, ANU Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong was on the money in her recent address to the National Press Club when she observed that the key goal of foreign policy was to build a regional order in which ‘no country dominates, and no country is dominated’. It’s an interest Australia shares with the other middle and smaller powers in the Asia-Pacific, as the geopolitical picture most of the region was accustomed to slips out of the frame. Neither the bifurcation of Asia into geopolitical blocs, nor the wholesale retrenchment of the United States and the emergence of a Chinese sphere of influence, are acceptable outcomes for the region. But without renewed intellectual and political force behind a new vision of Asian regionalism, the winner-takes-all logic of great power competition is emerging as a fundamental geopolitical dynamic in the region. Missing from Wong’s address — and indeed, from the regional conversation more broadly — is a concrete strategy whi

Authors: Vu Le Thai Hoang and Ngo Di Lan, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam As the United States and China continue to engage in a global tug of war, Southeast Asian nations are increasingly pushed to take sides. But taking sides could exacerbate superpower rivalry and risk turning the region into battleground like it was during the Cold War. Southeast Asia’s future hinges on persuading Washington and Beijing to strike a new modus vivendi. Despite all the talk of a Thucydides Trap , great powers are not destined for war — even cold ones. It took a series of uncontrollable events, misperceptions and over-optimistic calculations for the Cold War to take shape. US–Soviet relations quickly thawed in the 1980s when top leaders on both sides agreed that detente was in both their interests. If the United States and the Soviet Union could do it once before, there is no reason why China and the United States cannot work towards an agreement that allows for peaceful coexistence and responsible

Author: Editorial Board, ANU With the death last week of Allan Gyngell, retired but until the end active foreign policy analyst, Australia has lost what Foreign Minister Penny Wong rightly called ‘ the finest mind in Australian foreign policy ’. The ancient Greek democrat Demosthenes pointed out that the ‘ship of state’ needs all citizens to prepare to keep it afloat in calm waters, for in storms when the water is flooding in, it is too late. Gyngell preferred plain language rather than quoting the classics. But he was also a historian, and more than anyone, focused on lifting the general understanding of foreign policy across the country to avoid it running dangerously adrift, most recently as President of the Institute of International Affairs, Australia’s grassroots nationwide foreign policy community. Allan’s unfailingly thoughtful approach to foreign policy analysis was on regular display at the Australia in the World podcast he co-hosted for 112 episodes , and as a regular c

Author: Bernhard Seliger, Zwickau University of Applied Sciences A new Cold War structure is emerging in Northeast Asia that is creating polarisation among countries in the region. North Korea’s unprecedented aggression, China’s assertiveness and the Russian invasion of Ukraine indicate that now is the time for countries to choose a side, not hover indecisively between camps. South Korean President Yoon Seok-Yeol has made a clear decision, opting to align more closely with the United States and its allies in the region. Yoon’s choice has made the century-old enmity between Japan and Korea of secondary importance and sent a stern message to North Korea. South Korea is now poised to establish a robust military alliance with the United States and forge closer relations with Japan . More formal arrangements, such as a Quad membership, also seem possible. While not outrightly rejecting cooperation with China, South Korea’s new Indo-Pacific strategy discusses the threats that China poses

Author: Emma Colven, University of Oklahoma Flood events routinely displace more people across Indonesia than any other disaster, accounting for 82 per cent of all Indonesian disaster-related displacements in 2021. Jakarta’s 2020 New Year’s Day flood brought the most intense rainfall to the city since records began — the resulting flooding killed 43 residents and displaced more than 400,000 people. Across Indonesia, 63 million people live in flood-prone areas . One of the most vulnerable nations to climate change, Indonesia is experiencing increasingly unpredictable monsoon seasons marked by higher precipitation. Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency anticipates that Indonesia will likely experience high rain precipitation in 2023 as climate change drives flooding and other hydrometeorological events . The good news is that disaster management is already an established priority for the government. The devastating 2004 Aceh tsunami exposed shortcomings in In

Author: Minh Phuong Vu, ANU   In March 2023, China and ASEAN resumed negotiations on the South China Sea (SCS) Code of Conduct, which aims to reduce the risk of conflict in the disputed maritime zone. But such progress has not calmed the situation. In February 2023, the Chinese Coast Guard harassed a Filipino Coast Guard crew with a ‘military-grade’ laser, sparking an intense response from Manila. Vietnam has been comparatively quieter, but silence does not mean that all is well. On 25 March 2023, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel sailed near oil and gas wells belonging to Vietnam’s Vanguard Bank, resulting in a dangerous encounter between Chinese and Vietnamese patrol boats.   Given Beijing’s ongoing efforts to assert greater control in the SCS, states like Vietnam and the Philippines are seeking greater support from external partners to help resist China’s grey zone activities. In March 2023, the Philippines joined a three-way security framework with Japan and the United Stat