Today Trends

Authors: Satoru Kohda and Ayaka Hiraki, Deloitte On 16 July 2023, the United Kingdom signed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), becoming the first new party to the treaty since its establishment. The CPTPP, originally known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), was agreed upon in 2015 by 12 countries, including Singapore, Australia and the United States. The United States announced its withdrawal in 2017 during the administration of former president Donald Trump. But the other 11 signatories decided to sign and ratify a slightly revised version of the original TPP agreement as the CPTPP, which entered into force in December 2018. The CPTPP is characterised by a high level of liberalisation of trade in goods and services. In principle, the signatory countries are required to eliminate tariffs on virtually all goods in 15 years — with the final intra-regional trade liberalisation rate exceeding 99 per cent of tariff lines.

Author: Gennady Rudkevich, Arlington Over three months after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny, in which the former Putin ally marched on Moscow with thousands of his troops, the consequences for Russia and its president are beginning to crystalise. While Putin’s position seems safe for now, his domestic aura of invincibility has been shattered, and the geopolitical consequences of a weak Russian leader are multi-fold. On 23 June 2023, Prigozhin’s paramilitary group Wagner sought to dismiss the current Russian military leadership for alleged incompetence by marching with thousands of armed troops on Moscow. After stopping only a few hundred miles from the Russian capital, Prigozhin allowed the president of Belarus to talk him into ending the march and moving Wagner troops to Belarus. Despite agreeing to stay in Belarus, Prigozhin returned to Russia and faced no legal consequences. But he was killed in an airplane crash two months to the day of his failed mutiny. Though it rem

Author: Souknilanh Keola, Institute for Developing Economies Japan was ASEAN’s largest provider of financial and technical resources until the 2000s. Japan’s overseas development aid (ODA) through loans and grants to ASEAN member states goes back to 1969, two years after ASEAN was formed. Japan’s annual net ODA , mo st of which is directed towards Asian countries, continues to grow despite some major setbacks. It grew from US$105 million in 1960 to US$14.5 billion in 1995, before declining when Japan’s asset bubble burst in 1992. Japan’s net ODA hit a low at US$7.7 billion in 2007, but rose to US$15.7 billion in 2021, with five ASEAN countries among the top 10 recipients. Much ODA went to the construction of roads, bridges, airports, powerplants and industrial estates, all essential to economic development. Infrastructure aid was helpful to the original ASEAN members during their early independence. It benefited not only local people and firms but also attracted investment from Ja

Author: Stefanie Schacherer, Singapore Management University Sustainable finance garners significant attention from global investors and policymakers. In recent years, Europe has led the way in regulating sustainable finance. But East Asia is catching up as sustainable investment surges due to recent government initiatives and regulations. The regulatory landscape is pivotal, providing clarity for markets to flourish. Countries like Singapore and China have embraced new sustainable finance regulations, guiding the financial sector toward eco-friendly and socially responsible ventures. Fourteen Asian states and ASEAN have developed or are in the process of developing green taxonomies. China established its Green Bond Catalogue in 2015, while Singapore is currently finalising its forthcoming green taxonomy. Building upon their sustainable finance policies and regulations, Singapore and China have elevated their collaborative efforts. In April 2023, the Monetary Authority of Sing

Author: Tricia Yeoh, IDEAS The conclusion of six state elections held in August 2023 provided a much-needed pause in Malaysian politics. Held nine months after the 15th general election (GE15) in November 2022, these elections were a mid-term gauge of the popularity of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition government, which is comprised of former rivals Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN). The PH coalition maintained its hold on three states — Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan. The national opposition, Perikatan Nasional (PN) and its component Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) achieved supermajorities in its three states — Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. While retaining control of its states gave Anwar a political reprieve, PN made significant inroads into all three west coast states. The coalition was denied a two-thirds majority in Selangor, where PN increased its number of seats from one to 22. Similar seat increases took place in Penang and Negeri Sembilan. The P

Author: Rahul Nath Choudhury, EY LLP India has so far signed 13 free trade agreements (FTAs), all of which differ in their scope and nature. But the majority of these agreements have failed to produce their desired results and have contributed to India’s high trade deficit. India’s imports from its FTA partners have increased more than its exports. In the period between 2017 and 2022, India’s exports to its FTA partners increased by 31 per cent, while its imports increased by 82 per cent. India’s FTA utilisation remains very low at around 25 per cent, while utilisation for developed countries typically sits between 70–80 per cent. This low utilisation highlights India’s alarming failure to take advantage of the benefits made available through its bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. Recognising the ineffectiveness of these FTAs, the Indian government began reviewing them in 2019. One of the fundamental reasons for the negligible progress of India’s FTAs is the lack of ad

Author: Toshiro Nishizawa, University of Tokyo As the world’s largest bilateral lender, China faces challenges in dealing with the debt distress of some of its borrowers under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Whether China can support those debtors and avoid trapping itself in unpaid debts will depend on its policy choices. China’s BRI has provoked criticism from parts of the Western world. The United States remains concerned that China’s rise will undermine its values and interests. The alleged lack of transparency and expensive lending terms of the BRI have been central issues. A ‘ debt trap diplomacy ’ narrative persists in the media and certain policy circles despite recent research showing this is an unfounded myth . There are no winners in a debt trap strategy, as the debtor, trapped with unsustainable debt, leaves its creditor out of pocket. The fundamental challenge of sovereign debt in the developing world is not China, but rather how to deal equitably with unsustain

Author: Nurhadi Hafman, United Nations System Staff College Nadiem Makarim has led the Indonesian Ministry of Education, Culture, Research and Technology since 2019. Nadiem, a young startup entrepreneur, is one of the architects of the influential app Gojek. Appointing a non-academic minister to oversee education was an unconventional choice — historically, all education ministers have hailed from academia. This decision elicited speculation but also optimism regarding potential transformative shifts in the education sector’s trajectory. In his final year in office, Nadiem focused on his leading initiative — introducing a new curriculum and concept of Merdeka Belajar (Freedom to Learn), officially launched on 11 February 2022. This curriculum reform is underpinned by the aim of tackling chronic problems of learning loss among Indonesian students, which can be primarily attributed to subpar educational quality. Curriculum revision extends beyond Nadiem’s administration — this pat

Author: Editorial Board, ANU Thailand’s Pheu Thai, the populist party linked to the deposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is back in power for the first time since being ejected from office in a military coup in 2014 — ironically, in coalition with the proxy parties of the military junta that installed the last prime minister, Prayut Chan-ocha. As Greg Raymond writes in this week’s lead article , ‘Thailand’s democratic processes have been subverted by not only a deeply illiberal constitution but also by a set of opaque machinations’ that unfolded in the wake of the May general election, at which Pheu Thai was unexpectedly pushed into second place by a surge of voter support for the reformist Move Forward. Pheu Thai initially backed Move Forward as it brought together a diverse coalition of parties to support a parliamentary vote to appoint its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, as prime minister. But with scepticism about whether conservatives would use their numbers in the u