Today Trends

Author: Hugh White, ANU Washington is once again debating whether to declare that it will never be the first to use nuclear weapons. There are good reasons why it should. But it would not be right to suggest that a no-first use policy would cost the United States nothing strategically. On the contrary, it would be a grave step. That does not mean it should not be taken — it should. But the consequences need to be fully understood for the wisdom of a no-first use policy to become clear. Those who oppose no first use have a key fact on their side. In some circumstances, threatening to launch a nuclear attack can deter an adversary when conventional forces cannot. It worked when US and NATO conventional forces had little chance of defeating a Soviet invasion of Western Europe during the Cold War. What deterred Moscow from invading was Washington’s clear threat to use nuclear weapons first to stop Soviet tanks. It is widely assumed that US conventional forces have since become vastly...

Author: Editorial Board, ANU Despite the long list of problems associated with the Tokyo 2020 Olympics — corruption , scandals , budget overruns , a year’s long delay due to COVID-19 and widespread public opposition — the event continues to be billed as a festival of peace . In the tradition of the Olympic truce dating back to ancient Greece, the Games are ostensibly an opportunity to bring the world together and encourage political leaders in a spirit of international cooperation and reconciliation. Yet cautious hopes that Tokyo 2020 might be grasped as a diplomatic moment to start to repair relations between Japan and South Korea were dashed just days before the Games began. Back in 2018, South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s Olympic diplomacy during the Pyeongchang Winter Games helped foster inter-Korean and US–DPRK dialogue and pull the Trump administration back from the brink of unleashing ‘fire and fury’ on North Korea. Keen to grasp the chance for Olympic diplomacy again, P...

Author: Kazuhiko Togo, University of Shizuoka The relationship between Japan and South Korea since the end of the Second World War has certainly been complex. Psychological adjustments after 36 years of Japanese colonial rule were high hurdles to overcome for both countries. Yet, Japan and South Korea gradually grew close. A few major events brought the two countries together: the decision by the Sato and Park administrations to normalise relations in 1965; the regaining of trust led by prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone and President Chun Doo-hwan in the 1980s; the 1993 Kono Statement and the Asian Women’s Fund that followed. Also important were the Joint Declaration in 1998 signed by prime minister Keizo Obuchi and president Kim Dae-jung, the ‘Korean wave’ of popular culture in Japan in 2003–04 and the 2015 comfort women agreement reached by prime minister Shinzo Abe and president Park Geun-hye. But from 2018, the relationship began to deteriorate. From the Japanese perspective, t...

Author: Xirui Li, NTU Intergovernmental cooperation between the United States and China was an important part of the fight against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003. Yet serious collaboration to combat COVID-19 is yet to materialise. The state of US–China bilateral relations and the failure to cooperate has arguably worsened the pandemic. Despite similarities between the two initial outbreaks, COVID-19 seems to have deepened the antagonism and rivalry between the United States and China. Many attribute the lack of pandemic cooperation to a preoccupation with the ongoing trade and propaganda war . But signs of US–China cooperation on other issues, such as recent mutual commitments to address the climate crisis , reveal that deteriorating bilateral relations might only be part of the story regarding the failure to cooperate on COVID-19. A mismatch in perceptions on how to approach domestic health governance, one that was not apparent in 2003, may also be playing a ...

Author: Yan Liang, Willamette University The G7 meeting and communique could signify success for US President Joe Biden in reclaiming diplomatic leadership on a surface level. Biden convinced both European and Asian allies to weave together an anti-China front and reinserted the United States into a global leadership position to ‘build back a better world’ (B3W).  Yet Biden’s strategy poses some important questions. Can this anti-China front based on common values sustain itself? And will the signature B3W initiative, taking the form of a ‘green silk road, provide a viable alternative to China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI)?  Biden has taken important steps to show that the United States is back and ready to lead. He emphasised that shared values — democracy and rules-based liberalism — are what unite the United States with its allies. He also underscored the common perceived threat: the rise of an increasingly assertive China. He instilled a sense of urgency that democra...

Author: Carlo Bonura, SOAS Since May 2021, the United Kingdom has had significant success in its diplomacy in Asia and the Pacific. The acceptance of the United Kingdom’s application to become an ASEAN Dialogue Partner in May , the announcement of a UK–Australia free trade agreement and the inauguration of the UK bid to become a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) are all rapid achievements at the centre of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s recent Asian diplomacy push. These achievements reflect how post-Brexit diplomacy is moving at two different tempos. In Asia, where the Johnson government’s ambitions are lofty , high profile diplomatic agreements over long-term regional trade and geopolitical commitments have occurred quickly, encountering few obstacles. In contrast, much closer to home, the UK government is grappling with the slow grind of a political and trade crisis in Northern Ireland and worsening relations with Europ...

Author: Andrey Gubin, Far Eastern Federal University During a press briefing at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum on 5 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed his readiness to discuss a peace treaty with Japan. He highlighted that both Moscow and Tokyo share strategic interests and recent amendments to Russia’s constitution would not impede cooperation. This is the first time that Putin has made such a statement publicly. His words were decidedly more conciliatory compared to his 2019 statement in Vladivostok . Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has also expressed his willingness to develop ties with Russia and conclude a peace treaty to end Second World War hostilities between the two countries over the Kuril Islands (claimed by Japan as the Northern Territories). But there are still critical misunderstandings between the parties. During a phone call in January , US President Joe Biden reassured Suga that Washington would uphold its responsibilities ...

Authors: Oindrila Dey, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade and Debalina Chakravarty, St Xavier’s University Over the past year, India has gone through several lockdowns , resulting in the collapse of market operations and the almost complete cessation of all major economic activities. On 10 June 2021, the monthly moving average urban unemployment rate was 15.4 per cent . This severely jolted GDP growth, which fell to a four decade low of -7.3 per cent . To restore economic stability, efficient government intervention is needed. But efficient intervention is dependent on citizens’ trust in the institution of government. Almost 35 per cent of the world’s population live in autocratising nations and as a result people are losing trust in government and putting their faith in institutional community activities. In India, crowdfunding from big corporate houses and even small pensioners has helped run community kitchens and provide primary health care to COVID-19 patients through social...

Authors: Samuel Hui and Wang Kai-Chun, Taipei On 7 July White House Asia tsar Kurt Campbell stated ‘we support a strong unofficial relationship with Taiwan; we do not support Taiwan independence’, drawing an even clearer line on the US position regarding Taiwan. This came after he affirmed in June that the Biden administration is confident in the current framework that governs relations between mainland China, Taiwan and the United States. At the event in June, Campbell said that the administration ‘still believes the frameworks that have been developed over the last several decades between the United States, Taiwan, and China give us the best framework forward’. He further noted that the administration ‘has [already] emphasised the downsides of adjusting that framework’. Avril Haines, the US Director of National Intelligence, also viewed Taiwan’s move towards de jure independence as a potential challenge. She argued that ‘already Taiwan is hardening, to some extent, toward ind...

Author: Abidah Setyowati, Delft University of Technology In May 2021, Indonesia’s biggest utility company, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), pledged to phase out fossil fuels by 2060 in order to achieve carbon neutrality . The announcement marks a dramatic shift in the country’s electricity policy that has long been dependent on fossil fuels, especially coal . It is a sign that decisions by major lenders — including Japan , South Korea and the Asian Development Bank — to divest from coal have severely restricted the country’s options for financing coal plant infrastructure. The destruction of carbon sinks in forest and carbon-rich peatlands are currently the biggest contributor to Indonesia’s carbon emissions. The energy sector will surpass these as the largest contributor to Indonesia’s carbon emissions by 2026–2027. Carbon emission from the energy sector will increase by 80 per cent before 2050 with the rapid expansion of electricity consumption as the economy and population g...