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Author: Jon Yuan Jiang Since 2019, more than 40 protests were held against ‘Chinese expansion’ in Central Asia. Yet Central Asian elites have hardly had a bad word to say. On the contrary, they suppressed these protests , denied that China’s goal was expansion and even requested their publics be grateful to China . No wonder some Russian commentators are worried about Russia’s waning influence. The rationale to explain these Central Asian elites’ choices is that they may be better off embracing China while subtly distancing themselves from Russia, as Beijing increasingly aligns with its Central Asian counterparts with greater success than Moscow. Despite Central Asian countries being independent for three decades, it is common to find Russian assertions that they still effectively own the region. Some Russian officials have even publicly claimed that the entire territory of Kazakhstan was a gift from Russia, which was denounced severely among Kazakh elites. Arguments about ex

Author: Laila Bushra, Lahore University of Management Sciences The Taliban’s first stint in power from 1996–2001 was an unqualified tragedy for Afghanistan and the rest of the world. It saw thousands of people dead, widespread destruction, and graphic scenes of violence before the ushering in of the first ‘forever’ war of this century. Will their return bring more tragedy or is it a mere farce? In the 1990s, the Taliban had to fight rival warlords and militias for over two years before they could capture Kabul. The struggle ultimately succeeded only with logistical and military support from Pakistan. This time, ironically, the prolonged US occupation and ‘nation-building’ attempts eliminated any armed groups who could effectively resist the Taliban. Government employees, like the rest of the country, had long been preparing for US withdrawal by routinely defecting to the prospective rulers. Afghanistan is no longer a war-ravaged country dependent on opium revenues and Saudi financ

Author: Jenny D Balboa, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies The Philippines experienced another surge in COVID-19 infections in the third quarter of 2021 due to the rapid spread of the Delta variant. The surge has dampened the country’s chance for an economic rebound, further strained the already fragile health system and exposed the inept strategy of the government, which has struggled to balance opening the economy and protecting public health. In September 2021, COVID-19 cases peaked at over 20,000 daily infections. The deluge of patients stretched hospitals to breaking point. Hospital beds and oxygen ran out. Ambulances carrying emergency patients were turned away. Patients with mild-to-moderate symptoms were asked to go home and self-treat. As of mid-November 2021, there have been over 47,000 COVID-19 related deaths. The virus has infected more than 2.8 million Filipinos. The spike in cases prompted another hard lockdown in Manila in August 2021. In the Philippines, the gover

Author: Gerardus Yosari, NTU Questions remain over how Indonesia can sustain its COVID-19 economic recovery targets due to the possible difficulties its policymakers face in curbing inflation. The best-case scenario for Indonesia’s economy would be gradual inflation leading to stable growth in the coming years.   A robust economic recovery will depend on the government’s ability to curb inflation in the short-term, improve workforce productivity and limit youth unemployment. Success will help Indonesia avoid potentially severe social and political implications associated with uncontrollable inflation. The Indonesian government has spent more on short-term rather than long-term fiscal measures due to the urgent nature of the COVID-19 economic crisis. Yet the long-term process of paying for higher short-term fiscal outlays has not been carefully considered. The Indonesian government’s use of various measures to aid financially burdened citizens with cash handouts is one example. O

Author: Mahendra Sethi, ISARD India At the end of October 2021, in one of the biggest annual climate gatherings, COP26 aimed to secure global net-zero emissions by mid-century. This would be done through keeping the global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius, encouraging adaptation to protect communities and natural habitats, mobilising finance and accelerating actions through collaboration between governments, businesses and civil society. Notably, it intended to finalise the Paris Rulebook — detailed procedures operationalising the Paris Agreement. In the lead up, countries were asked to declare ambitious emission reductions for 2030. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, countries from the Asia Pacific face the uphill task of reducing carbon emissions while recovering economically in pursuit of national development. The region already emits more than half of the world’s greenhouse gases (GHGs) and most of the population lives in low-lying dense agglomerations. While the

Author: Naohiro Yashiro, Showa Women’s University Japan’s new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won his first election on 31 October 2021 by achieving a majority of seats in Japan’s lower house. In early October, Kishida had just won his Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership vote, competing with Taro Kono. Kono was the minister of regulatory reform in the former Yoshihide Suga cabinet and appealed to younger voters as an expected reformer of the stagnated economy. By contrast, the 64-year old Kishida is a symbol of stability for the vested-interest supporters of the LDP. He is likely to heavily depend on the bureaucrats who have confidence in managing the economy, following the tradition of former prime minister Shinzo Abe. Kishida accuses previous LDP leaders of being neo-liberalist and depending too much on market competition, while watching income disparity increase. He emphasises income distribution for the benefit of the middle-income class, rather than the low-income class.

Author: Editorial Board, ANU There will be no resolution of the big problems of our age without the big powers, notably the United States and China, being willing parties to their settlement. And success will depend critically on the trust that each puts in the other’s stake in the game. On the problems of climate change and the transformation of the global energy economy and technologies that are needed to effect a reduction in man-made global warming; on arms control and limiting the spread of weapons of mass destruction; on revamping global trade and economic governance to make it fit to manage the hyper-interdependent and digitally wired economy of the 21st century: if the United States and China don’t both buy into the solutions, there will be no solutions. Yet what is increasingly plain for all to see is that these two great powers, left to their own devices, are incapable of resolving these problems alone, without damage of consequence to the global order and the global ord

Author: Shiro Armstrong, ANU Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s trip to Japan in November 2020 for a historic summit deepened a relationship with Japan that is Australia’s strategic anchor in Asia — his sole official trip overseas in close to 19 months. The most important geopolitical, economic and security fault lines in the world run through Australia’s and Japan’s own backyard. Australia’s relationship with Japan has never been closer, and Japan is of growing importance to Australia. The world’s third largest economy, it is Australia’s second largest source of foreign investment and third largest trading partner — having been second until commodity exports fell last year. The Special Strategic Partnership between the two countries rests on deep economic complementarity, shared strategic interests, and deepening trust and familiarity. But the Japan relationship must be reimagined to cope with accelerating economic, environmental and social changes in both countries and a dramatica

Author: Tom Westland, ANU According to the official readout, in their virtual summit this week, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed ‘managing competition responsibly’. For Biden, the talks were a chance to press Xi on China’s actions in Hong Kong and its assertive posture in the Taiwan Strait, as well as human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Xi, for his part, warned Biden against leading the United States into a new Cold War against China. Missing on the agenda was any serious discussion about the problems facing the global economy as it recovers from the deep recession of 2020. Aside from some worthy breakthroughs, like the agreement to hold bilateral ‘stability’ talks on nuclear issues, it’s not clear what Xi’s and Biden’s responsibly managed competition will look like. If it looks anything like the managed trade that now governs the economic interactions of world’s two largest economies, then ‘competition’ is a wild misnomer. The trade war between the tw

Authors: Andre Kwok and Nathanael Kwon, ANU Okinawa is hailed as a top tourist destination for its tropical climate and seafaring culture, yet a deep dive into its past unveils a dark history encapsulated by the Battle of Okinawa. Though the battle ended in June 1945, an ongoing struggle over historical memory and commemoration continues. Reflecting on this battle sheds light on the ongoing exclusion of Okinawan voices in Japan. The Battle of Okinawa was one of the most destructive episodes of the Second World War. The battle destroyed about 90 per cent of the island’s infrastructure and claimed an estimated 150,000 civilian lives — about half of the island’s total population at the time. The Japanese imperial state largely failed to protect the island’s population from this violence; as a matter of fact, the military showed little mercy towards its own subjects. Accounts of the Imperial Japanese Army’s (IJA) brutality include stories of soldiers using locals as human shields an