Today Trends

Author: Dong Wang, Peking University The Asia Pacific has entered a period of profound change characterised by a shifting power balance and increasingly contentious great power rivalry. Key questions that loom large on the strategic horizon for the region and beyond are to what extent peace, stability and prosperity in the region can be maintained? And what steps need to be taken to strike the right balance between strategic competition and collaboration? As far as strategic planning on the part of regional actors is concerned, there is no doubt that strategic competition and collaboration can and must be balanced. ‘Strategic competition’ has become the hallmark of US policy toward China, and regional actors’ strategic planning has been increasingly unfolding in the context of US–China competition. But ‘competition’ needs to be clearly defined as a constructive, bounded, calibrated, and healthy process, rather than as something that is unconstrained, zero-sum, and malicious. The sum...

Author: Bashar Malkawi, University of Arizona The ‘phase one’ trade deal between the United States and China entered into force on 14 February 2020. As part of this agreement, China agreed to make structural reforms, open up its financial services and strengthen intellectual property. China also pledged to buy at least US$200 billion in additional US goods and services over 2020 and 2021. But after almost two years, complaints have arisen about China not meeting its obligations. According to some statistics, China has reached only 62 per cent of that target, raising the question of compliance and enforcement under the phase one deal. The United States and China agreed to an innovative approach as part of their agreement, detailed in chapter seven. The phase one deal created the Trade Framework Group to discuss the agreement implementation, led by the US trade representative and a designated Chinese vice premier, with a bilateral evaluation and dispute resolution office for each...

Author: Cedarbough T Saeji, Pusan National University It has been 10 years since Psy’s Gangnam Style catapulted to worldwide popularity. This watershed moment has been followed by many more previously inconceivable achievements by hallyu (sometimes called the Korean wave, a catch-all term for the international popularity of South Korean media products). As hallyu has reached around the world and captivated new audiences, a critical narrative implying hallyu is a government creation has emerged. Although it is true that the cultural industries receive government support, there is a difference between a government supporting a domestic industry and the government creating hallyu or being responsible for its worldwide popularity. Most national governments aspire to support their cultural industries. Governments own and subsidise cultural facilities and national broadcasters, and create a climate for events because of the tremendous payoff that it offers in branding and sell...

Author: Kristen Hopewell, UBC As its economic weight grows, China’s growing participation in bilateral and mega-regional trade agreements will pull countries closer into its orbit, cement its position in regional and global supply chains, and bolster its growing dominance in the Asia Pacific region. Such initiatives will also accelerate the shift in global economic power from the United States and Europe to China. Not only has China become the world’s largest trading nation, but two-thirds of the world now trade more with China than the United States. Beijing is capitalising on the vacuum left by the abdication of US leadership in the Asia Pacific. Since pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2017, Washington has lacked a coherent economic and trade strategy for the region. This has left the field open to China, which has benefitted from US disengagement and the Trump administration’s alienation of close allies. Despite US President Joe Biden’s commitment to internat...

Author: Kevin Hewison, UNC Chapel Hill When the military junta grabbed power in 2014, it set about reversing Thailand’s earlier trajectory to electoral democracy. A military-backed, monarchy-focussed regime seemed confident when it manufactured a rigged election ‘victory’ in 2019 — but it faced a determined opposition in 2020. In seeking to silence youthful dissenters pursuing constitutional change and monarchy reforms, the regime further subverted public institutions in 2021. While COVID-19 infection control measures limited protest in 2021, the government’s repressive measures also limited criticism of the regime and monarchy. The year began with intensified royal propaganda, increased internet censorship and a wave of lese majeste arrests. The regime’s repressive measures involved parliament, the judiciary and the police, while also manipulating the media and limiting civil society. Dominated by the junta-appointed Senate, parliament is used to blunt calls for political ref...

Author: Pan Wang, UNSW Since the mid-2000s, China’s street parks have become new tourist attractions and popular venues for marriage matchmaking. Organised by parent volunteers attempting to find a partner for their children, these ‘marriage matchmaking corners’ or xiangqinjiao can be seen in cities across China. Many of these parents grew up in the Maoist era (1949–1976) in which they hardly experienced romance or dating due to the political nature of the period. Their children, on the other hand, were born mainly in the opening-up period of the 1980s and 90s. They face the effects of the one-child policy (1980–2015) — coupled with the ingrained preference for sons and access to ultrasound technology and sex-selective abortion — that has distorted China’s sex ratio by producing millions of extra men of marriageable age. This imbalance has been exacerbated with more and more women choosing to pursue higher education or career advancement, delaying their marriage plans. The rising ...

Author: Jose Ramon G Albert, Philippine Institute for Development Studies Election fever kicked-off in the Philippines in October as several prominent public figures filed their candidacies for president. A variety of candidates has emerged including: boxing legend and senator Manny Pacquiao , incumbent Manila Mayor Isko Moreno , former Philippine police chief and senator Panfilo Lacson , opposition leader and current Vice President Leni Robredo , former police chief and incumbent Senator Ronald dela Rosa , and former senator Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr (son of the country’s ex-dictator). A September opinion poll put Sara Duterte-Carpio, outgoing Mayor of Davao City and daughter of current President Rodrigo Duterte, as the top choice among likely presidential candidates, garnering about 20 per cent of voters’ support. She was followed by Marcos Jr on 15 per cent, Moreno on 13 per cent, Pacquiao on 12 per cent, Robredo on 8 per cent and Lacson on 6 per cent. Philippine Senate...

Author: Bo Ram Kwon, Korea Institute for Defense Analysis South Korea is under the spotlight for unusual reasons. On 15 September 2021, North Korea tested a new long-range cruise missile and a submarine-launched ballistic missile. South Korea immediately tested its own capabilities including a ballistic missile, a supersonic anti-ship cruise missile, a long-range air-to-surface missile, a solid-fuel engine for space rockets and then fired its own submarine-launched ballistic missile. These competing military displays have raised questions about the strategic objectives of South Korea’s build-up of technology-intensive national defence capabilities. South Korea’s defence budget shows its determination to build a more advanced and independent military force. The Ministry of National Defense’s Mid-Term Defense Plan for 2022–26 allocated 315.2 trillion won (US$271.5 billion) to defence — a 5 per cent increase over the previous five-year plan. The plan anticipates an average annual bu...

Author: Niranjan Marjani, Vadodara The 13 November attack on an Assam Rifles convoy by two Manipur insurgent groups — the People’s Liberation Army and Manipur Naga People’s Front — in Churachandpur district of Manipur has the potential to further destabilise Northeast India. Insurgent groups’ links in the region to Myanmar mandate a rethink of India’s approach to the issue. Since the Myanmar military coup in February 2021, India has tried to promote democratic values and protect its national interests in managing relations with Myanmar. India’s delicate balancing act may be construed as a dilemma — but New Delhi has deliberately kept the option of engaging with the Myanmar military (the Tatmadaw) open. Following the coup, India has called for the restoration of Myanmar’s democracy . India also expressed concern over Aung San Suu Kyi’s conviction by a Myanmar court on 6 December in which she was sentenced to two years of imprisonment. But at the same time, India has avoided har...

Author: James Laurenceson, UTS Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warned in September that Australia was on the ‘frontline’ of ‘strategic competition’ between the United States and China. ‘Exhibit A’ was the campaign of trade punishment that Beijing unleashed in May 2020 after it assessed that Canberra was collaborating with Washington to attack China’s interests. Smart responses are needed. Frydenberg has emphasised the importance of forging ‘partnerships with like-minded countries’ and staying true to ‘core values’. While sensible in principle, economic realities must be considered. And as a new report by the Australia-China Relations Institute explains, these realities are being obscured by local analysis and commentary. For starters, it’s inaccurate to frame Australia’s disrupted exports to China as part of a broader decoupling trend. One pundit has claimed that the global economy is becoming divided into two blocs — ‘one dominated by Western liberal-democracies competi...