Today Trends

Author: Luke Lischin, University of Toronto After six years of uncertainty under former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, the election of President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr has been met with cautious optimism in Washington regarding the future of the US–Philippines alliance. President Marcos extols the ‘ special relationship ’ between the United States and the Philippines. He characterised discussions with Washington involving the Mutual Defense Treaty as a means of improving bilateral relations to meet new challenges. Marcos also expressed his intention to expand trade and economic relations with the United States through initiatives including the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework . But the pro-US rhetoric espoused by the Marcos administration is not a reliable indicator of the President’s commitment to the alliance. Marcos may not share Duterte’s animus towards the United States but his politics, domestic and foreign, closely resemble his predecess...

Author: Yoko Iwama, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies This year will be a watershed year in the 21st century. Russia’s integration into the liberal international order has ended in disaster. China has stood by Russia since the invasion of Ukraine and their strategic and diplomatic coordination has increased. Russia and China performed joint patrols during US President Joe Biden’s Asia tour to signal their partnership. The Russia–Ukraine war has renewed calls for the G7 to help ensure peace and security amid an increasingly unstable environment. At the G7 Summit in June 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasised the economic and social impact of the Ukraine crisis. Germany reacted strongly to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, pivoting its security policy. Germany pledged to commit 2 per cent of its GDP annually to defence and to spend €100 billion (US$101 billion) in 2022 to upgrade German armed forces. This upgrade includes 35 Lockheed Martin F-35A fighter jets to repla...

Author: Marat Galimov, HSE In the middle of the global financial crisis and seven months after the Sichuan earthquake in 2008, Chinese premier Zhu Rongji, Japanese prime minister Keizo Obuchi and South Korean president Kim Dae-jung held their first independent meeting. They agreed to cooperate on disaster management and hold trilateral foreign ministers’ meetings with a rotating chair. In 2011 — just two months after the cascading triple disaster hit Japan — Chinese, Japanese and South Korean (CJK) representatives met in Tokyo. At this meeting, they agreed on the Cooperation on Disaster Management framework to support the quick dispatch of disaster relief teams and supplies on request and to send a CJK expert team on-site to examine disaster-hit areas. CJK heads of government broached trilateral cooperation in other forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit and ASEAN+3. They also held joint relief exercises in cooperation with ASEAN and disaster simulations ...

Authors: Ken Jimbo and Bryan Tan, Keio University In the 1970s, Japanese prime minister Masayoshi Ohira developed a concept of ‘comprehensive security’ that emphasised the need to broaden the scope of security to non-military domains. The concept built upon the ideas outlined in the 1969 Nixon Doctrine, where the United States encouraged its allies to take ‘primary responsibility’ for their own defence. This prompted Japan to take on a larger role in the US–Japan alliance and in safeguarding its own security. Ohira’s taskforce reinforced Japan’s commitment to the comprehensive security agenda by emphasising Japan’s proactive approach to non-military domains such as economic, food and energy security. In 2022, Japan’s security strategy is once again groping towards a comprehensive approach but with greater emphasis on robust military capability, economic statecraft and technological innovation. As the security environment surrounding Japan becomes more severe, maintaining a favour...

Authors: Manita Raut and Kuntala Lahiri-Dutt, ANU The catchphrase ‘water is life’ took on a deeper meaning in 2022 as floods submerged two-thirds of Pakistan, affecting over 33 million people, displacing tens of millions and killing 1400 people.   While the Indus River helped Pakistan’s rural prosperity to grow over generations, the frequency and intensity of floods have been steadily increasing in recent decades. More than 13 floods have occurred in Pakistan since 1992 — and each flood has killed and displaced hundreds of thousands of people. The wrath of climate change, a history of poor water resource planning and indiscriminate infrastructure development have turned the Indus into a symbol of danger. As of September 2022, the floods have killed eight million animals and destroyed around two million acres of crops — 90 per cent of the country’s crops and 8 million animals have perished. These figures are expected to soar. The recovery from the catastrophe will be difficu...

Author: Aurelia George Mulgan, UNSW Canberra In Japan, the Unification Church (UC) is a religious corporation known formally as the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification and for its unique interpretation of Christian theology and practices widely criticised for being similar to those of a cult . Its founder and long-time leader, South Korean Sun Myung Moon, certainly fits the archetype of a cult leader. He was narcissistic as a self-professed messiah but also charismatic and convincing in his quest to brainwash members from whom he demanded unquestioning loyalty in order to acquire money and power as head of both a religious and business organisation. Such ‘organisational totalitarianism’ has often been harnessed for political ends, particularly as the children of believers were taught that ‘ instructions from above are absolute ’. In the 1950s and 60s, the basic connection was ideological. The UC was built on anti-communist ideals , particularly the political organis...

Author: Deepa M Ollapally, GWU Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coincided with a debate over whether to call US–China tensions ‘ a new Cold War ’ and a ‘ no limits ’ friendship between Russia and China. As the United States raced to place sanctions on Moscow, many in the Global South found themselves caught in the crosshairs of a realignment against Russia. Among the non-committed, India is the largest democracy to strike its own path. Russia has been one of India’s most steadfast diplomatic and defence partners and a weakened Russia would negate India’s preference for a multipolar global order in which it is an independent and influential pole. Washington’s tendency to group China and Russia as an ‘authoritarian axis’ that threatens the global order is not something to which India subscribes. India sees Russia as a close friend and China as an adversary, while the United States is hostile to both countries. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the contradiction between India and the Unite...

Author: Ömer Faruk Yildiz, Anadolu Agency After four years of a tiring judicial process, Malaysia’s Federal Court finally upheld the High Court’s decision to sentence former prime minister Najib Razak to 12 years in jail for his involvement in the corruption of 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and the Strategic Resource Company. During the trial, Najib tried everything possible to turn the judgement in his favour. From building a heroic public image through social media campaigns to embracing his supporters through state visits, he did his best to hide the accusations against him. As religion plays a decisive role in Malaysian politics, Najib emphasised his devotion to Islam by reciting prayers before court hearings and making strategic appearances in mosques to garner more Malay–Muslim support. Although he did manage to consolidate hard-line supporters within his party, the United Malay National Organisation (UMNO), none of them helped overturn the judicial process. The hopes ...

Author: Hiroshi Ono, Hitotsubashi University A city clerk in the western prefecture of Yamaguchi carries a floppy disk containing account information for 463 residents to a local bank. He has every intention of transferring payments to the residents. But somewhere between the clerk’s instructions and the bank’s processing of the transaction, there is a miscommunication. Instead of 463 residents receiving their payments, one resident alone receives a lump sum payment for 463 residents. Such a mishap may be understandable had it occurred in the 1980s, when personal computers and memory devices were just popping up. But this took place in Japan in 2022. Incidents like that are reminders of the state of digital disfunction in Japan. Once known as a technological powerhouse, Japan has lagged in the global wave of digital transformation. Japan still maintains technological competitiveness in certain areas such as robotics, batteries and some high value-added intermediate inputs and machi...

Author: Passant Mamdouh Ridwan, Fudan University China’s growing influence in the global technological market reflects Beijing’s ambition to be a leading player in digital technology. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for China to dominate advanced technology manufacturing by 2025. The Digital Silk Road (DSR), launched in 2015 as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, reflects this goal of developing digital infrastructure at home and overseas. The world has witnessed China’s digital transformation in telecommunications, artificial intelligence, satellite navigation systems, sea cables and surveillance systems. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the DSR, increasing China’s digital projects and high-tech investment abroad. Chinese technology firms have a significant presence in the Middle East and North Africa. Industry commentators have described Huawei as the world’s largest telecommunications supplier, second largest smartphone manufacturer and a global leader in fifth...