Today Trends

Author: Charles Mok, Hong Kong Hong Kong’s latest census data paints a grim picture of the territory’s demographic trends. In 2022, Hong Kong recorded its highest net population loss and lowest birth rate since 1991, pushing the median age from 31.6 to 46.3 over this 30 year period. Another census report on employment and job vacancies paints an even grimmer picture. Comparing data from September 2022 with January 2022, the number of jobs in the information and communications and financing and insurance sectors declined by 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively. But at the same time, the number of job vacancies in these two sectors jumped by a whopping 31.9 per cent and 19.1 per cent respectively. Although government officials reject any talk of a ‘brain drain’, the reality is that of the 142,000 Hongkongers who have applied for the United Kingdom’s British National (Overseas) visa scheme so far, 38,600 are under 18 , 32,600 are aged 35 to 44 and 27,800 were aged 45 to

Author: Donaev Mukhammadsodik, OSCE Academy The EU and China have become more dynamic players in Central Asia since the United States withdrew from Afghanistan and Russia started losing its geopolitical reputation following its invasion of Ukraine. While Russia’s regional influence is gradually being replaced by China’s presence , the EU should adjust its strategy. Otherwise, the EU’s plans for closer connectivity with Central Asia will exist only on paper. After the grandiose Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Samarkand in September 2022, several summits were held to further EU–Central Asian connectivity. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in October. Chinese President Xi Jinping also visited  these countries — his first foreign visit since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. EU delegates, who have been making more frequent visits to Central Asia, often criticise China’s active engagement in the region. German

Author: Ivan Lidarev, King’s College London Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU leaders , the Ukrainian foreign minister and French President Emmanuel Macron suggested that, as a neutral power close to Moscow, Beijing could mediate between Russia and Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping himself vaguely spoke about a Chinese role in resolving the conflict in March and December 2022. On the face of it, a Chinese mediation would seem to make sense for Beijing. It would improve China’s relations with the United States and Europe , which suffered massively as a result of Beijing’s stance on the war, present China as a peace-seeking world power and help end a conflict that destabilises the world economy and undermines China’s Belt and Road Initiative . But China has been consistently reluctant to mediate between the two sides. The question is why. Part of the answer is that neither Russia nor Ukraine is seriously interested in ending the conflict at this stage. The war also

Author: James Laurenceson, UTS The share of Australia’s total goods exports going to China fell to 27 per cent in June 2022, a sharp decrease from 46 per cent just a year earlier. While some commentary has heralded this as a success for Australian diversification away from China, it is more accurately described as a redirection of trade flows. ‘Australia’s trade diversification away from China picks up pace’ was the narrative that the Australian Strategic Policy Institute chose to spin . Pointing to the same data, other analysts trumpeted that ‘Australia found other markets’ after Beijing disrupted access for Australian barley, coal, wine and other goods in 2020. Taken as further evidence of desirable ‘diversification’ is an increase in trade with regional partners considered more strategically aligned with Australia. During the same period, Japan’s share jumped to 17.8 per cent — up from 11.6 per cent — while India’s reached 6 per cent (up from 3 per cent). Looking ahead, free

Authors: Darryl Tan, BowerGroupAsia, Luzile Satur, University of Cologne, and Mirjam Le, University of Passau Over the past few years, ASEAN member states have faced food security issues. The twin crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war disrupted food supply chains as it impacted the flow of migrant workers who keep the agricultural sector running and constrained global output of wheat and fertiliser. ASEAN member states are now prioritising the maintenance of open and operational food supply chains . But it is equally important to address other looming threats to food security . Climate change is already damaging food production as temperatures and precipitation patterns fluctuate. Increasing urbanisation has caused a proportionate decline in the agricultural labour force as the current cohort of farmers age and fewer young people are interested in taking their place. Given these challenges, agricultural research and development (R&D) must be a core compo

Author: Colette Mortreux, University of Melbourne In response to the climate crisis, Tuvalu’s Minister of Justice, Communication and Foreign Affairs, Simon Kofe, announced at COP27 the country’s plan to become the world’s first digital nation. This bold and unprecedented project aims to digitise the history and cultural practices of Tuvalu as a precaution against its people losing their homeland to climate change. The Digital Nation project is already underway, digitising records of Tuvalu’s islets, birds and fish species, traditional songs, recipes, language and even the scores of the national volleyball team. At its most ambitious, the project speculates that the government could join the metaverse and be administered virtually, securing sovereignty and cultural continuity despite rising sea levels. Seen from afar, one could be forgiven for interpreting this project as acceptance that becoming uninhabitable is a fait accompli for Tuvalu. But this is far from the case. Tuvalu co

Author: Jose Ma Luis Montesclaros, NTU Since 2013 India has allocated subsidised grains for its poorer populations under the National Food Security Act at a cost of approximately US$24 billion annually. In April 2020, the government allocated additional grain as COVID-19 food aid at an additional cost of approximately US$47 billion, known as the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana ( PMGKAY ). The PMGKAY program was hailed by an IMF report as critical to preventing a significant increase in extreme poverty in India. But in December 2022 the Indian government decided to consolidate and roll back the PMGKAY given the nation’s steady economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. The policy reversal owes partly to the high price of wheat, which increased by 33 per cent in 2022 alone. The recent move reflects a fine balancing act by the government, which is caught between addressing the interests of the ‘poorest of the poor’ and those of marginalised individuals who need to

Author: Editorial Board, ANU There’s no question that the risks of political and economic fragmentation that come with great power rivalry in Asia make the task of re-energising Asia Pacific regionalism an urgent priority. What requires more concerted thinking is where to find the new political coalitions capable of providing the leadership that a renewed regional effort will need — and how to define and articulate the interests that will be key to binding those coalitions in a common purpose. In this week’s lead article , Andrew Levidis makes an historically-informed contribution to this discussion, arguing that the time may be ripe to revisit the idea of a strengthened Indonesia–Japan–Australia trilateral grouping to meet the current geopolitical challenges in Asia. ‘Despite the differences in political, historical and cultural geographies,’ he writes, ‘there are clear precedents for a Tokyo–Jakarta–Canberra alignment grounded in decades of shared struggles for economic moderni

Author: Andrew Levidis, ANU Australia’s role in Asian regionalism has too often been a blind spot in public discourse about the country’s identity and future. For too long the narrative of Canberra’s role in its historic backyard has been characterised by the hard edge of necessity and interest — and often by indifference. Yet this is a partial reading of a longer history from the era of high imperialism to the Cold War when Australia had been an important — if reluctant — ordering power in Asia. A full accounting of Australia’s involvement from the Colombo Plan to the Southeast Asian Treaty Organisation and the Asian and Pacific Council challenges our received wisdom about the Cold War as a period of failed Asian regionalism. We need to better understand this contentious past if we are to recover alternative alignments foreclosed by the global Cold War. One of the most important proposals from the archive of Asian internationalism centre on plans for a Japan–Indonesia–Australia t

Author: Kevin Nielsen M Agojo, City University of Hong Kong Barely a year into his administration, Philippine President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr has undertaken a major reorganisation of state security institutions. Marcos Jr appointed General Andres Centino as Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), a position that Centino held under former president Rodrigo Duterte. Some analysts believe that his return to the AFP is due to his track record in combating armed insurgencies, which remains a top security issue. But his reappointment was not without controversy. Jose Faustino Jr, resigned as officer-in-charge of the Department of National Defense (DND) after being kept in the dark about Centino’s appointment. Carlito Galvez Jr was appointed as Secretary of National Defense following Faustino’s resignation, having served in various capacities under Duterte. Clarita Carlos, who admitted that she was confused and uninformed of these changes, was also subseq