Today Trends

Violence in Myanmar is spreading with armed ethnic groups now confronting the Tatmadaw across different regions. 2023 saw victories by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in Shan State, the Karen National Liberation Army in the northeast and the Karen National Union in the south. Recently, the Arakan Army defeated Tatmadaw forces in the west, forcing hundreds of state security forces to flee into India. The spread of anti-junta fighting and battlefield successes has spooked many in ASEAN. Concerned about spillover from the fighting in western Myanmar, India has begun reinforcing its border with Myanmar whilst  repatriating Tatmadaw soldiers  who fled into India. Of greater interest is the shift in policy in Bangkok. Under the previous government led by former prime minister and military leader Prayut Chan-o-cha, Thailand was a ‘rogue state’ within ASEAN. Bangkok paid lip service to ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus while  pushing fleeing civilians back  across t...

The equitable allocation of intergovernmental transfers is a pillar of fiscal federalism and crucial in defining a country’s socioeconomic landscape. But political interests can influence these transfers, resulting in allocation biases. Indonesia, known for its high level of decentralisation , relies primarily on intergovernmental transfers as the main revenue source for subnational governments, with little change in this dependency pattern two decades after the 2001 decentralisation ‘big bang’. The General Purpose Fund ( Dana Alokasi Umum ) remains the primary funding source for most local governments, despite its share of transfers decreasing from 65 per cent in 2001 to 40 per cent in 2021. As a formula-based transfer, General Purpose Fund transfers are more immune to political intervention. On the other hand, the Special Purpose Fund ( Dana Alokasi Khusus ) seems more vulnerable to political interests. The Special Purpose Fund transitioned from a discretionary transfer in 20...

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have not been this high since 2017, when then US president Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un exchanged threats of nuclear war and North Korea tested its first long-range missile capable of reaching the United States. On 16 January 2024, Kim ordered a change to the country’s constitution — a document of unclear utility in an Orwellian personality cult — so that peaceful unification of North and South Korea was stricken from official policy . Party officials must also eliminate or downsize agencies and organisations related to inter-Korean relations, pointing to long-term institutional changes to all inter-Korean issues. Kim’s explicit rejection of unification marks an important shift in how the regime talks about and publicly presents the future of the two Koreas. But in practice, North Korea’s ideas of what ‘peaceful’ unification with the South would mean lost touch with reality a long time ago. The conventional Pyongyang id...

Public discontent with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is palpable over a slush fund scandal involving at least 970 million yen (US$6.5 million) in unreported income from political fundraising parties held by LDP factions. The Kishida cabinet’s approval rating was already in the so-called danger zone, below 30 per cent, and the slush fund scandal has pushed it   below 20 per cent  since the end of last year. What riles public anger about the scandal goes beyond the relatively paltry sum of money involved and encompasses the perceived entitlement of the political class amid society’s expectation that everyone should adhere to rules and laws, regardless of their status or position. While Kishida’s position is increasingly untenable, the LDP has survived worse. It has held power for nearly 70 years since its formation in 1955, with only two exceptions  — 11 months between 1993 and 1994 and just over three yea...

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is in crisis over a political slush fund scandal, which erupted in December 2023. The scandal has plunged public trust in Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration and the LDP to unprecedented lows and upended the LDP’s system of political factions. Kishida looks unlikely to survive beyond the end of his term as LDP leader in September 2024. The scandal is about underreported income from political fundraising party tickets sold by LDP factions. Prosecutors estimate that at least 970 million yen (US$6.5 million) is involved over the five-year period between 2018 and 2022, mostly accrued by the former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s faction . A five-year statute of limitations means that earlier underreported income is not under investigation. LDP faction members were typically set a quota of tickets to sell for each fundraising party based on their seniority. Profits beyond the quota were then returned to the member of parliament or pu...

Cambodia runs on both renewable and non-renewable energy, a mix of hydropower, solar and biomass followed by coal and fuel oil. The share of renewables is forecasted to grow in 2024 but may not keep up with demand. Nuclear power offers the potential to help the country overcome environmental regulations and climate trends, but Cambodia is still a long away from a viable nuclear energy program. In 2020, Phnom Penh enacted a 10-year moratorium on dam development along the Mekong River and pledged to stop adding coal power plants . The Power Development Plan (PDP) 2022-2040 was created to explore alternatives, primarily renewable energy development in order to enable Cambodia to transition to a cleaner energy mix while fulfilling international commitments. The PDP calls for $US655 million to develop non-mainstream Mekong hydro dams, solar PV plants, Battery Energy Storage System, biomass and natural gas from 2026. This may fundamentally restructure the national energy mix, which in...

Following Taiwan’s general elections in January 2024, where the Democratic Progressive Party won a third term, South Asian countries released a range of statements supporting China’s claim that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and on upholding ‘One China’ principle. The outpour of support showcases Beijing’s use of economic and political influence in the region to control the discourse over Taiwan. A spokesperson from Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the country was committed to the ‘One China’ principle and considered interference in China’s internal affairs ‘provocative and detrimental’ to regional peace and stability. The Taliban government recently exchanged envoys with China and is seeking broader recognition and investment, making these comments unsurprising. The Bangladeshi Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its firm adherence to the ‘One China’ principle. The statement also urged the parties concerned to refrain from any ‘unwar...

As geopolitical tensions and concerns about the environment deepened, APEC’s 2023 agenda focused on fostering sustainable and inclusive development, highlighting its pivotal role as a forum for constructive discussion to promote international cooperation. The question, however, was whether APEC, built on the voluntary commitment of Asia Pacific economies to cooperate in managing their large common ambitions for open, sustainable regional development, could straddle the political and other fissures that were dividing its members.    The fractious atmospherics surrounding the San Francisco summit underscored this question. Outside the Moscone Centre where the APEC Leaders’ Meeting was held, the loudest protest was that APEC was ‘doing nothing’ about the environment or for ordinary people; that APEC was only about ‘free trade and big business.’ In fact, in 2023, APEC did much to engage the interests of community stakeholders. Shepherded by the United States, APEC — which ha...

COVID-19 disrupted human capital formation in Asia when many countries were racing against time to escape the middle-income trap before their populations began to age. The pandemic has robbed them of the demographic dividend which they had been waiting to harness as they moved to a higher-income country status. Excess deaths in Southeast Asia alone were an estimated 1.21 million , almost quadruple the officially reported deaths. This compares with excess deaths globally of 18.2 million, which was triple the number of officially reported COVID-19 deaths at 5.94 million. The pandemic resulted in significant learning loss, which increased ‘learning poverty’ — the share of 10-year-olds who cannot read and understand an age-appropriate text. This has been especially severe in middle-income countries in Asia. The pandemic also increased out-of-pocket healthcare costs, especially the costs of care for the elderly, crowding out other essential household expenses. Primary healthcare serv...

Following Papua New Guinea’s (PNG)  devastating riots  in early January 2024, Foreign Minister Justin Tkachenko  told journalists  that in September 2023 China had offered to provide training, equipment and surveillance technology to the PNG police force. Further, the two countries are in the early stages of negotiations over potential security cooperation. This revelation  added to concerns in Australia  around geopolitical competition in the Pacific region, though  Tkachenko later said  PNG will not ‘jeopardise or compromise relations’ with traditional security partners.  Should such a deal materialise, this would be the latest in China’s expanding engagement with Pacific police forces — the main security agency in most Pacific countries. Since 2013, China’s Ministry of Public Security has sent two police officers at a time from the Ministry and city-level bureaus on attachment to the Fiji Police Force for 3–6 months. In September 2021...