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The ASEAN–Australia special summit hosted earlier this month by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Melbourne cleared the bar for success that Australia’s press and foreign policy commentariat apply to these sorts of things. Australian officials made the requisite shows of solidarity with the Philippines in its efforts to assert its claim over Scarborough Shoal, a major package was announced aiming at deepening economic ties with ASEAN and a succession of bilateral engagements culminated in the announcement of the upgrade of Australia’s relationship with Hanoi to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Australia thus continues to deepen its relationships with ‘Southeast Asia’ — but what does that mean for the relationship with ASEAN? Missing from the Summit both in rhetoric and substance was any sign of beefing-up   ASEAN as an anchor of a regional order based upon security cooperation and open markets . Of course, it’s not Canberra’s role to get out in front of the ...

In the end, Prabowo Subianto got the cake, albeit without the icing, in Indonesia’s presidential election on 14 February. The official tally, to be announced 20 March, looks set to confirm an unprecedented landslide for an incoming Indonesian president, with Prabowo having won 58 per cent of the vote in a three-way race, far exceeding the 50 per cent threshold required to avoid a runoff with his two rivals. But Prabowo was denied the clean sweep that looked possible on election day, with his Gerindra party placing third in concurrent legislative elections. Former president Megawati Soekarnoputri’s PDI-P has likely re-emerged as the biggest party, which if confirmed would allow it to retain the strategic speakership of parliament — some consolation after President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), still officially a PDI-P member, abandoned the party’s presidential candidate to endorse Prabowo. A priority for Prabowo and Jokowi now is containing the controversy over government interference in F...

Myanmar’s 2021 military coup has given rise to significant uncertainty regarding the stability of the country. The seizure of power by the military has sparked armed resistance and an overall deterioration in the country’s economic conditions. In response to international sanctions, the junta has been compelled to rely on its natural resource reserves to fund its military expenditure. The previous government, which enjoyed significant public support, imposed a nationwide logging ban in 2016 and extended it for a decade in the densely forested Pegu Yoma region. But following the military coup, illegal logging activities have been booming. According to satellite data, extensive areas of the central rainforest have been chopped down, with this deforestation linked to the junta . As law and order has deteriorated, there has been a surge in illegal mining activities in the country’s remote areas . Local activist groups have accused the military junta of backing these unlawful minin...

Discussions between the US Secretary of Commerce and the Chinese Minister of Commerce in November 2023 highlight the latest complexities in the US–China trade relationship. Secretary Gina Raimondo clarified that US export controls aim to protect national security without hindering China’s economic development. Minister Wang Wentao criticised the controls for adversely affecting normal trade practices, especially in China’s semiconductor industry. The introduction of strict export controls by US President Joe Biden in October 2022, updated in 2023 , were designed to limit Beijing’s access to advanced technologies and constrain military advances. But the measures are likely to have secondary consequences given the dual-use applications of chip technology. US export controls and investment restrictions in key sectors are intended to preserve technological leadership and address security concerns. Yet, these policies may also produce unintended consequences, including potentially...

From 2012 to 2021, Beijing steadily advanced its claim to ‘historic rights’ in most of the waters, seabed, and airspace of the South China Sea, using coercion and threats of force to do so. But since 2022, the momentum has shifted. Southeast Asian claimants have stopped giving ground. The most well-reported South China Sea story of 2023 was the ongoing crisis around Second Thomas Shoal where Manila is determined to repair the BRP Sierra Madre . Every month , the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has escorted civilian ships to resupply Manila’s troops aboard the grounded ship. And every month, the China Coast Guard (CCG) and militia have employed dangerous but non-kinetic tactics to block them, so far without success. The Philippines has also re-established a regular presence around Scarborough Shoal for the first time since 2012 despite similar Chinese grey zone tactics.  The CCG was accused of using a military-grade laser to temporarily blind a Filipino crew member in February 2...

Taiwan needs to build soft power, generating attraction to its values, ideas and culture to overcome disabling international challenges confronting President-elect Lai Ching-te. Proactive external communications can help the new government increase global awareness, gain sympathy and win support from the international community. Various initiatives have been devoted to this cause, such as opening Taiwan Academies abroad to promote traditional Chinese culture, investing in gastrodiplomacy to introduce Taiwanese cuisines to the world, setting up Sinology resource centres to increase the exposure of Taiwanese research and initiating a semiconductor study program to attract overseas talent. Throughout its time in power, Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has emphasised democratic values in its external communications and engagement. It established the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy  in 2003 to connect with other democracies through international events, founded the Tai...

Opponents of China’s solar manufacturing industry, including  US  and  German  manufacturers, believe that human rights are currently at odds with the renewable energy transition. To achieve a just transition, it is imperative for nations to cooperatively protect the wellbeing of affected workers when addressing environmental problems. Solar energy is critical to the renewable energy transition. China dominates this industry,  accounting for  over 80 per cent of production in all manufacturing stages of the solar supply chain. Within China, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region  produces  approximately 35 per cent of the world’s polysilicon, a key material in solar modules. The Chinese government faces ongoing international scrutiny for alleged human rights abuses against the Uyghurs — the region’s ethnic group — including accusations of forced labour. In 2020, the Australian Strategic Policy ...

After another decade of land takings and conflicts, the National Assembly of Vietnam has passed new amendments for its Land Law. The law’s performance not only affects the regional rule of law movement but also holds real fiscal weight. Hanoi plans to invest heavily into the land-sensitive subject of its highspeed railway , metro and airport network . Experts have cast the new law as another reiteration of the ‘ status quo ’, which is the prioritisation of social stability. While correct in principle, it is crucial to understand that this ‘status quo’ — paradoxically — has not been static in application. Viewed through the lens of the country’s history, the new law is a shift in the pact between parties in the land–economy tug-of-war. Vietnam’s private property market was born in a radically different socio-political environment. As the country opened its door after the Doi Moi policy, the primary objectives of the 1987 Land Law and its 1993 updates were poverty alleviation and b...

Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election does not simply signal a change in leadership. It represents a pivotal moment in the island’s assertion of its political identity and its strategic importance on the international stage. The elevation of Vice President Lai Ching-te to the presidency, in open defiance of Beijing’s stern warnings, broadcasts Taiwan’s resolve and its people’s steadfast commitment to democracy. While much analysis will inevitably concentrate on the consequences of Taiwan’s election for the delicate interplay between the United States, China and Taiwan, such discussions can overshadow the genuine aspirations of the Taiwanese people . The Western narrative — filtered through the prism of strategic interests and security concerns — often neglects the nuanced fabric of Taiwan’s society, its economic vibrancy and the robust democracy that underpins its national identity. The West’s preoccupation with military concerns and geopolitical manoeuvring risks downplaying the v...

In 2023, China’s Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia were deployed to the South China Sea in greater numbers, for longer periods of time and with more aggression than ever before. The Philippines has become the main point of maritime tensions, prompting the Philippine government to step up defence cooperation with the United States and its allies. In November 2023, US Pacific Fleet Commander  Admiral Samuel Paparo  noted that Chinese officers were following orders to be more ‘aggressive’ when it came to encounters with Western militaries. In the same month, US Acting Deputy Secretary of Defense  Mara Karlin  called out ‘unprofessional and unsafe behaviour’ by the People’s Liberation Army.  A  January 2024 report  noted that in the second half of 2023, ‘physical encounters between Philippine and Chinese ships increased at an alarming rate’ during routine rotation and resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal.  During 2023, the Philippines a...