Japan’s Olympic-sized COVID-19 gamble

Author: Ben Ascione, Waseda University

After a one-year postponement, the Tokyo Olympic Games are set to begin on 23 July. The Japanese government and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) have emphasised that they will hold a ‘safe and secure’ Games. But the Japanese medical community and public question the wisdom of this decision as Japan and much of the world still battle the COVID-19 pandemic.

The spread of COVID-19 in Japan has worsened since the IOC decided in March 2020 to postpone the Games by 12 months. Back then Japan had just over 1000 COVID-19 cases and 43 deaths. As of late June 2021, Japan has nearly 800,000 cases and over 14,500 deaths.

Nearly 40 per cent of Japan’s infections and one-third of its deaths came in January and May during its third and fourth waves. Hospitals in cities like Tokyo and Osaka were pushed beyond capacity as the number of people requiring inpatient treatment for COVID-19 spiked.

Leading medical experts, Japanese doctors unions, 60 per cent of Japanese firms and 60–80 per cent of public opinion favour postponing or cancelling the Games. The head of the Japanese government’s coronavirus panel, Shigeru Omi, stated in Diet testimony that it was ‘abnormal’ to hold the Games during a pandemic. He felt compelled to publicly provide independent research findings that were out of step with the government.

The risk for Japan is that the Olympics will trigger a fifth wave of infections and deaths. This risk is amplified by the increasingly infectious Delta variant, which is already spreading around Japan. The Olympics also risks becoming an incubating ground for a ‘Tokyo Olympics’ variant, further delaying the global recovery if returning athletes and personnel spread COVID-19 across the world.

So why are Japan and the IOC pressing ahead despite the risks?

For the IOC it comes down to money. The Olympics generate over 70 per cent of its revenue from broadcast rights. If the Games were cancelled this revenue would be lost and could imperil its future relations with broadcasters and sports federations.

As Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga stresses, the Olympic contract only gives the IOC — not the Tokyo or Japanese government — the right to cancel the Games. The host city is essentially a service provider contracted to stage an event. If Japan were to cancel unilaterally, the IOC would be entitled to significant compensation, even though enforcing it would be a public relations nightmare.

Suga also faces a Liberal Democratic Party leadership election in September and a lower house election by October. Cancelling the Games would increase scrutiny on Japan’s hefty Olympic budget — officially 1.64 trillion yen (US$15 billion), but unofficially estimated at ¥3 trillion yen (US$27 billion) — and the government’s handling of COVID-19 and the vaccine rollout. This could force Suga to resign.

Suga is gambling that Japan can muddle its way through the Games without too many infections, win enough gold medals to boost public support, and ramp up vaccinations to a respectable level before he calls a snap election in September. Since the Suga government and the IOC refuse to engage in dialogue on the question of postponing or cancelling the Games, all possible efforts must be made to avoid a super spreader event.

The IOC needs to mandate vaccination for all athletes and personnel without a valid medical reason. Unequal access to vaccines between rich and poor countries threatens to leave gaps among those entering Japan for the Games from over 200 countries. After making arrangements with Pfizer, the IOC expects 80 per cent of the 11,000 athletes will be vaccinated before the Games begin.

While 70–80 per cent of the 22,000 international media and broadcast personnel are expected to be vaccinated, the situation for the 37,000 IOC, NOC, and sports federation delegates and 40,000 athlete-support staff is unclear. Japan’s Olympics Minister says the government is considering vaccinating the 70,000 volunteers for the Games after 10,000 quit in protest, but may have left it too late.

Japan also needs to ramp up its vaccine rollout. So far, 20 per cent of residents have received at least one shot and 9 per cent are fully vaccinated. The Suga government is racing to vaccinate all 36 million senior citizens by the end of July. By then the Games will already be underway and most of Japan’s remaining 90 million residents will still be left vulnerable.

The integrity of the Olympic bubble will be paramount to protect the Japanese public, but leading medical experts have warned that IOC planning is ‘not informed by the best scientific evidence’. Current planning around volunteers would need to be amended to minimise contact between the bubble and Japanese society. The Suga government has not heeded expert medical advice not to allow domestic spectators.

The IOC needs to follow best international practice from other sporting events. Athletes should be housed in single rather than shared rooms with adequate ventilation systems. The IOC needs to provide more detailed information about testing and isolation facilities so that they can be better analysed by epidemiologists. It should establish differentiated protocols for different sports and venues by risk level. Athletes should also be provided with wearable devices for contact tracing rather than smartphone-based apps.

It remains to be seen if the IOC and Suga’s Olympic-sized bet will pay off. Japanese lives and delayed global recovery from another virus shock are on the line.

Ben Ascione is Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University.

This article is part of an EAF special feature series on the COVID-19 crisis and its impact.

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