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Much like a soap opera, Indonesian politics in 2023 was full of plot twists. With less than a year until the presidential and legislative elections scheduled for February 2024, political parties and elites engaged in unpredictable manoeuvres and established new configurations of political power. 2023 was the year of President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo, who has completely transformed from a mere party official into one of Indonesia’s most powerful kingmakers. Indonesian politics is the politics of elites, and this feature will persist throughout 2024. Two major plot twists occurred in 2023. The first unfolded when Muhaimin Iskandar, chair of the National Awakening Party (PKB), unexpectedly left the coalition supporting Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto ’s presidential candidacy. Muhaimin and PKB joined the coalition of mostly opposition parties endorsing former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, with Muhaimin taking on the role of Anies’ vice presidential candidate. This move stirred dissa...

The world has witnessed a complex tapestry of economic and technological dynamics between the United States and China, with 2023 marking a period of continued economic interdependence and technostrategic rivalry. Despite a nominal dip in US imports from China, bilateral trade volumes remained substantial. US exports to China totalled US$135.8 billion and imports stood at US$393.1 billion for January–November 2023. Trade represents only a facet of the economic bond between the United States and China. Policymakers, cognisant of the perils inherent in economic decoupling , have started to eschew such a course. High-level meetings and initiatives, like the US–China economic and financial working groups established in September 2023, offered a positive glimpse of potential bilateral relations. A meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November 2023 highlighted China’s willingness to partner with the United States. In contrast, the high-tech land...

Author: Scott Snyder, Council on Foreign Relations Though North Korea had yet to fully resume its pre-pandemic activities by the end of the year, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un celebrated major successes in safeguarding and strengthening North Korea and the Kim family dynasty in 2023. In so doing, Kim appears to have set a course to generate more tensions in 2024. There was an apparent successful launch of a North Korean satellite in November 2023 following two failed attempts. International summits and accompanying military exchanges with Russia resumed. 2023 saw the public emergence of Kim’s daughter, Kim Ju-ae, who alongside his sister, Kim Yo-jong, are the leading representatives of the Kim family dynasty. These accomplishments are intended to address North Korea’s vulnerabilities while enhancing the resilience, legitimacy and longevity of North Korea under Kim Jong-un. North Korea claimed to have successfully launched a satellite into orbit on 21 November 2023. Within hours of ...

For Americans engaged with East Asia, 2023 started inauspiciously. On 28 January, a high-altitude balloon was discovered flying across North America.  Suspected of being a Chinese spy balloon carrying intelligence-gathering equipment, it was shot down by the US Air Force on 4 February on the order of President Joe Biden. The incident resulted in Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponing his long-awaited trip to China, which would have been the first such visit since 2018.   Blinken did eventually visit Beijing in June 2023, as did Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in July and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in August. But the balloon incident  symbolised continued tensions  between the United States and China on a wide range of issues.  In 2023, the United States followed the conclusion of its National Security Strategy, issued in October 2022. This strategy claims that ‘The PRC is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the internationa...

One of the key questions about China’s relations with Myanmar is whether Beijing is supporting the State Administration Council (SAC) military junta. To the naive eye, it seems natural that the Chinese Communist Party would support the SAC because of their shared authoritarian nature.  But understanding China’s role in the complex domestic politics of the ongoing crisis in Myanmar only in terms of those supposed ideological affinities occludes the reality that China has been playing a hedging game with a variety of political forces within Myanmar for at least a decade — including those now opposed to SAC rule.  This approach arises out of lessons learned from China’s over-dependence on the Myanmar military in the past — before  the latter turned against Beijing’s interests  in 2010–2011. Thein Sein’s military-aligned government unilaterally warmed up relations with Washington and other Western countries at the cost of long-term  Chinese interests  in M...

Compared to Vietnam and the Philippines, Indonesia’s strategic ties with the United States have been lacklustre. Indonesia’s latest elevation of its relationship with the United States to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) did not significantly change the depth of the countries’ relationship. When Indonesian President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo visited US President Joe Biden in the White House on 13 November 2023, the two leaders were confident the CSP would begin a new era of US–Indonesia relations. But the depth and breadth of current relations do not reflect that of a CSP. Without substantial economic and security cooperation following the deal, this CSP is symbolic   at best. From a US perspective, the CSP provides a shortcut to building the United States’ image as a committed partner without providing adequate economic and diplomatic engagement with Indonesia. The CSP sends a message that the United States remains a committed partner. This is despite the shortcomi...

Pakistan remains on edge since Imran Khan was ousted as prime minister in 2022, following defections within his coalition and a vote of no-confidence in the parliament. The successor Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government — a motley group of 13 parties — flouted every Supreme Court order to which it was subject, leaving the Court crippled and helpless. The rump parliament swiftly  passed laws  favouring their agenda at the expense of the constitution. Pakistan’s constitutional order has broken down. The federal and provincial  governments are illegal , as they failed to hold constitutionally mandated elections within 90 days of the dissolution of assemblies. Khan’s residence in Lahore — where he was holed up with his supporters — was  raided and damaged  in a police operation. Khan faces a  media blackout  with over  150 criminal cases , mostly frivolous, registered against him. The protests in response to  Khan’s arrest  i...

Cambodia aims to become an upper middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2050. To realise these ambitions, Cambodia must address various constraints to achieving more inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth. Growth will need to be driven by, and generate, decent paying and sustainable jobs in the formal and informal sectors. This includes decent returns for small-scale farmers and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). To do this Cambodia needs to enter a new phase of structural transformation. So far, the limited diversification of its economy has not affected its rapid pace of growth — only its quality and inclusiveness. Cambodia’s average growth rate exceeded 7 per cent in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by unilateral trade preferences, tourism centred on Angkor Wat and large capital inflows to infrastructure and real estate. With its graduation from least developed country status expected this decade, Cambodia will become a victi...

In 2023, Indonesia successfully held the ASEAN chairmanship and hosted the FIFA U-17 World Cup, the first FIFA tournament held in Southeast Asia. Indonesia also launched its first high-speed railway ‘Whoosh’ connecting Jakarta and Bandung, with a planned extension to Surabaya. These highlights add to the popularity of Indonesian President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo as his term approaches its end in 2024. Jokowi has shown that he is no longer just a ‘petugas partai’ (party officer), a term used by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) Chair Megawati Sukarnoputri to emphasise that the president should remain loyal to the party. Jokowi has diverged from PDI-P’s stance by supporting Prabowo Subianto instead of Ganjar Pranowo in the 2024 general elections . Subianto has picked Gibran Rakabuming Raka — Jokowi’s son — as his running mate. Critics have stated Jokowi has started to build a political dynasty. But the more serious accusation is his manoeuvre to use state institutions t...

Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA)  play a significant role  in Japan’s farming industry. They offer a wide range of services to members, ranging from marketing farm products to credit and mutual insurance packages. Japan’s agriculture industry is facing many challenges, including a rapid  decline in the farming population  and  an increase in the price of agricultural materials. Combined with unstable global conditions, these challenges have encouraged JA to reconsider its role in sustaining the industry. Agricultural cooperatives in Japan consist of general cooperatives engaged in multiple businesses — including credit and insurance — and others specialised in certain crops. They are both regulated by  the 1947 Agricultural Cooperative Law . The cooperatives were established in 1948, soon after the end of the Second World War, to improve productivity and the social and economic position of farmers in Japan. At the time, i...